HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and the GovernmentBack

Press Release on June 26, 2013

Special Announcements

(1) Preliminary Report and video clips of “OCLP Deliberation Series” DDay1 now released

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong earlier released the Preliminary Report of the “OCLP Deliberation Series” DDay1. Members of public and media are welcome to read the Chinese report at the “OCLP Deliberation Series” Feature Page of the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) and also at the “PopCon” e-platform (http://popcon.hk). The video clips of the plenary sessions and small group discussions of the public module are all available at the feature page, while some video clips of the supporters module are still being processed.

(2) Review of HKSAR anniversary

POP’s usual practice is to issue more frequent releases before and after the middle and also end point of each year, under the names of “HKSAR anniversary” and “Year-end” survey series for public consumption. Recently, POP issues a number of releases under the “HKSAR anniversary” survey series. Please see POP Site and also the “Future Releases” section of this press release for more information. Since the figures released today by POP come from the last tracking survey on this topic conducted before July 2013, the half-yearly averages published in the website are good for HKSAR anniversary stories. Because the handover of Hong Kong occurred on July 1, it may be more appropriate and accurate to analyze macro changes of Hong Kong society using half-yearly rather than yearly figures. Moreover, a chronology of major events as reported by the local newspapers over many years past can be found in the “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”. This may also be useful in running HKSAR anniversary reviews.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,040 Hong Kong people between 13 and 19 June 2013 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that the popularity of CE CY Leung continues to drop. His support rating now stands at 46.2 marks and net popularity at negative 28 percentage points, which is a record low since he took office as CE. As for the SAR Government, compared to a month ago, satisfaction rate goes down by 6 percentage points, while dissatisfaction rate goes up by 7 percentage points, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 31 percentage points, back to the level registered in June last year. As for the five specific policy areas, in terms of net satisfaction rate, only relations with the Central Government has registered positive value at positive 9 percentage points. The other four items all registered negative values: protection of human rights and freedom at negative 12 percentage points, maintaining economic prosperity at negative 13 percentage points, improving people's livelihood at negative 24 percentage points, and developing democracy at negative 25 percentage points. Compared to three months ago, the net satisfaction of maintaining economic prosperity, relations with the Central Government, and improving people's livelihood have registered significant drops. Over the years, it has been our practice to issue more frequent releases before and after the middle and also end point of each year, under the names of “HKSAR anniversary” and “Year-end” survey series for public consumption. POP is recently attacked both in the public domain and in cyber space, we hope it is just a matter of misunderstanding.” The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 68%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,040 successful interviews, not 1,040 x 68.0% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure and net value needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.6 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level".
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey, and rounding procedures in collating the figures, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2012 year-end.

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
13-19/6/2013	1,040	68.0%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	2-10/4/13	17-25/4/13	2-7/5/13	20-23/5/13	3-5/6/13	13-19/6/13	Latest change
Sample base	1,007	1,023	1,017	1,023	1,012	1,040	--
Overall response rate	66.2%	68.6%	65.9%	69.5%	65.4%	68.0%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[7]	--
Rating of CE CY Leung	50.5	49.9	49.0	46.7^[9]	46.7	46.2+/-1.6	-0.5
Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung	32%	35%	29%^[9]	30%	30%	27+/-3%	-3%
Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung	51%	49%	54%^[9]	54%	54%	55+/-3%	+1%
Net approval rate	-19%	-14%	-25%^[9]	-24%	-24%	-28+/-5%	-4%
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	--	29%	--	26%	--	20+/-3%	-6%^[9]
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	--	36%	--	44%^[9]	--	51+/-4%	+7%^[9]
Net satisfaction rate	--	-7%	--	-18%^[9]	--	-31+/-6%	-13%^[9]
Mean value^[8]	--	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=595)	--	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=547)	--	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=644)	-0.2^[9]

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.6, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Starting from March 2011, this question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 652.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey showed that, CE Leung Chun-ying scored 46.2 marks, and 27% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 28 percentage points. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 20% were satisfied, whereas 51% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 31 percentage points. The mean score is 2.5, which is in between "quite dissatisfied" and "half-half".

Recent figures on people's appraisal of the five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	19-25/6/12	18-27/9/12	18-28/12/12	21-27/3/13	13-19/6/13	Latest Change^[13]
Sample base^[13]	512-543	569-691	633-661	605-681	568-688	--
Overall response rate	69.6%	67.8%	65.7%	67.1%	68.0%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error^[10]	--
Relation with the Central Government: Satisfaction rate^[11]	41%	32%^[12]	37%^[12]	44%^[12]	39+/-4%	-5%^[12]
Relation with the Central Government: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	27%	34%^[12]	28%^[12]	25%	30+/-4%	+5%^[12]
Net satisfaction rate	14%	-2%^[12]	9%^[12]	19%^[12]	9+/-6%	-10%^[12]
Mean value^[11]	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=477)	2.9+/-0.1^[12] (Base=609)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=559)	3.2+/-0.1^[12] (Base=600)	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=590)	-0.1
Protecting human rights and freedom: Satisfaction rate^[11]	35%^[12]	29%^[12]	35%^[12]	28%^[12]	31+/-4%	+3%
Protecting human rights and freedom: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	37%	44%^[12]	36%^[12]	43%^[12]	43+/-4%	--
Net satisfaction rate	-2%	-15%^[12]	-1%^[12]	-15%^[12]	-12+/-6%	+3%
Mean value^[11]	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=495)	2.7+/-0.1^[12] (Base=588)	2.9+/-0.1^[12] (Base=590)	2.7+/-0.1^[12] (Base=646)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=663)	--
Maintaining economic prosperity: Satisfaction rate^[11]	27%^[12]	31%	35%	36%	28+/-4%	-8%^[12]
Maintaining economic prosperity: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	45%^[12]	37%^[12]	33%	33%	41+/-4%	+8%^[12]
Net satisfaction rate	-18%	-6%^[12]	2%^[12]	3%	-13+/-7%	-16%^[12]
Mean value^[11]	2.7+/-0.1^[12] (Base=519)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=540)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=610)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=603)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=552)	-0.3^[12]
Improving people's livelihood: Satisfaction rate^[11]	14%^[12]	26%^[12]	32%^[12]	27%^[12]	27+/-3%	--
Improving people's livelihood: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	62%	44%^[12]	39%^[12]	42%	51+/-4%	+9%^[12]
Net satisfaction rate	-48%	-18%^[12]	-7%^[12]	-15%^[12]	-24+/-7%	-9%^[12]
Mean value^[11]	2.2+/-0.1^[12] (Base=533)	2.7+/-0.1^[12] (Base=583)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=634)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=589)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=650)	-0.1
Pace of democratic development: Satisfaction rate^[11]	26%	22%^[12]	21%	22%	25+/-3%	+3%
Pace of democratic development: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	47%	53%^[12]	45%^[12]	50%^[12]	50+/-4%	--
Net satisfaction rate	-21%	-31%^[12]	-24%^[12]	-28%	-25+/-6%	+3%
Mean value^[11]	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=499)	2.4+/-0.1^[12] (Base=536)	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=587)	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=604)	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=634)	--

[10] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[11] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[13] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity and SARG overall performance. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.

Of the 5 specific policy areas, people were most satisfied with the government's handling of its relation with the Central Government, with a net satisfaction rate of positive 9 percentage points. The government’s performance in protecting human rights and freedom and maintaining economic prosperity followed, attaining a net satisfaction rate of negative 12 and negative 13 percentage points respectively. The government’s performance in improving people's livelihood attained a net satisfaction rate of negative 24 percentage points. Finally, the net satisfaction rate of the government's performance in developing democracy stands at negative 25 percentage points. The mean scores of these 5 specific areas are 3.1, 2.7, 2.7, 2.6 and 2.5 respectively, which is in between "quite dissatisfied" and "half-half" in general.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 21 to 27 March, 2013 while this survey was conducted from 13 to 19 June, 2013. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

19/6/13	Legistlative Council members question on Hong Kong's internet security.
12/6/13	Kai Tak Cruise Terminal launches offically.
10/6/13	Snowden, whistle-blower of US massive surveillance programme flees to Hong Kong.
9/6/13	Leung Chun-ying considers Occupy Central as an offense to law for no intention.
4/6/13	150,000 people participate in the June Fourth candlelight vigil.
30/5/13	Hong Kong's competitiveness declines to 3rd according to the World Competitiveness Survey by IMD.
24/5/13	Barry Cheung Chun-yuen resigns from all of his official posts.
6/5/13	Strikers accept a 9.8 percent pay rise from contractors.
30/4/13	Inquiry report of Lamma ferry tragedy puts blame on Marine Department.
24/3/13	The central government commits to achieve universal suffrage in Hong Kong by 2017.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed, “Our survey conducted in mid-June shows that the popularity of CE CY Leung continues to drop. His support rating now stands at 46.2 marks and net popularity at negative 28 percentage points, which is a record low since he took office as CE. As for the SAR Government, compared to a month ago, satisfaction rate goes down by 6 percentage points, while dissatisfaction rate goes up by 7 percentage points, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 31 percentage points, back to the level registered in June last year. As for the five specific policy areas, in terms of net satisfaction rate, only relations with the Central Government has registered positive value at positive 9 percentage points. The other four items all registered negative values: protection of human rights and freedom at negative 12 percentage points, maintaining economic prosperity at negative 13 percentage points, improving people's livelihood at negative 24 percentage points, and developing democracy at negative 25 percentage points. Compared to three months ago, the net satisfaction of maintaining economic prosperity, relations with the Central Government, and improving people's livelihood have registered significant drops. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’. Over the years, it has been our practice to issue more frequent releases before and after the middle and also end point of each year, under the names of “HKSAR anniversary” and “Year-end” survey series for public consumption. POP is recently attacked both in the public domain and in cyber space, we hope it is just a matter of misunderstanding.”

Future Releases (Tentative)

June 28, 2013 (Friday) 1pm to 2pm: HKSAR anniversary survey
July 2, 2013 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Ratings of top 10 political groups