HKU POP releases society appraisal Back

Press Release on June 25, 2013

Special Announcements

(1) Preliminary Report and video clips of “OCLP Deliberation Series” DDay1 now released

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong earlier released the Preliminary Report of the “OCLP Deliberation Series” DDay1. Members of public and media are welcome to read the Chinese report at the “OCLP Deliberation Series” Feature Page of the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) and also at the “PopCon” e-platform (http://popcon.hk). The video clips of the plenary sessions and small group discussions of the public module are all available at the feature page, while some video clips of the supporters module are still being processed.

(2) Review of HKSAR anniversary

In these two weeks, POP releases one-by-one the survey series of “HKSAR anniversary”. Please see the “Future Releases” section for details. Since the figures released today by POP come from the last tracking survey on this topic conducted before July 2013, the half-yearly averages published in the website are good for HKSAR anniversary stories. Because the handover of Hong Kong occurred on July 1, it may be more appropriate and accurate to analyze macro changes of Hong Kong society using half-yearly rather than yearly figures. Moreover, a chronology of major events as reported by the local newspapers over many years past can be found in the “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”. This may also be useful in running HKSAR anniversary reviews.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,040 Hong Kong people from June 13 to 19, 2013 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that using a one-in-three choices method, livelihood issues continue for many years to be people’s most concerned issues followed by economic and then political issues. The order is the same using absolute ratings of importance, but the absolute rating of concern for economic issues is significantly lower than that registered half a year ago. As for the satisfaction figures, people’s net satisfaction of the current economic, livelihood and political conditions are all negative, respectively at negative 9, negative 28 and negative 43 percentage points, not much different from those registered half a year ago. People are still least satisfied with the current political condition. In-depth analysis shows that the younger the respondents, the more dissatisfied they are with the current livelihood condition. The maximum sampling error of all percentages in the survey mentioned is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling errors of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 68%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,040 successful interviews, not 1,040 x 68.0% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-2% and +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of all percentages not more than +/-3%, that of ratings not more than +/-0.15 and net values not more than +/-5 percentage points, at 95% confidence level".
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey, and rounding procedures in collating the figures, when quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the “POP SITE” the latest findings of people’s appraisal of society’s conditions. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2012 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages^[6]
13-19/6/2013	1,040	68.0%	+/-3%

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent figures of people’s appraisal of society’s conditions are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	27/6-5/7/11	28-29/12/11	19-25/6/12	27/12/12-3/1/13	13-19/6/13	Latest change
Sample base	1,011	509	1,048^[7]	1,007	1,040	--
Overall response rate	65.7%	62.8%	69.6%	65.3%	68.0%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[9]	--
Most concerned with livelihood problems^[8]	70%^[10]	64%^[10]	61%	63%	60+/-3%	-3%
Most concerned with economic problems	20%^[10]	30%^[10]	26%	22%^[10]	24+/-3%	+2%
Most concerned with political problems	7%	4%^[10]	10%^[10]	12%	13+/-2%	+1%
Rating on concern for livelihood problems^[8]	7.38	--	7.13^[10]	7.30^[10]	7.32+/-0.12	+0.02
Rating on concern for economic problems	7.16	--	7.07	7.20^[10]	7.02+/-0.12	-0.18^[10]
Rating on concern for political problems	5.71^[10]	--	5.92^[10]	5.79	5.77+/-0.15	-0.02

Date of survey^[12]	21-28/11/11	19-29/12/11	19-25/6/12	27/12/12-3/1/13	13-19/6/13	Latest change
Sample base	1,001	1,027	1,048^[7]	1,007	1,040	--
Overall response rate	70.6%	62.9%	69.6%	65.3%	68.0%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[9]	--
Current economic condition: Satisfaction rate^[11]	34%	31%	24%^[10]	29%^[10]	30+/-3%	+1%
Current economic condition: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	38%^[10]	42%^[10]	44%	37%^[10]	39+/-3%	+2%
Net satisfaction rate	-4%^[10]	-11%^[10]	-20%^[10]	-8%^[10]	-9+/-5%	-1%
Mean value^[11]	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=984)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=1,015)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=498)	2.9+/-0.1^[10] (Base=987)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=1,016)	-0.1
Current livelihood condition: Satisfaction rate^[8] ^[11]	27%^[10]	19%^[10]	19%	19%	22+/-3%	+3%
Current livelihood condition: Dissatisfaction rate^[8] ^[11]	44%^[10]	54%^[10]	59%^[10]	49%^[10]	50+/-3%	+1%
Net satisfaction rate	-17%^[10]	-35%^[10]	-40%	-30%^[10]	-28+/-5%	+2%
Mean value^[11]	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=964)	2.5+/-0.1^[10] (Base=1,002)	2.4+/-0.1 (Base=500)	2.6+/-0.1^[10] (Base=991)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=1,025)	--
Current political condition: Satisfaction rate^[11]	26%^[10]	24%	17%^[10]	14%^[10]	13+/-2%	-1%
Current political condition: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	45%^[10]	45%	55%^[10]	55%	56+/-3%	+1%
Net satisfaction rate	-19%^[10]	-21%	-38%^[10]	-41%	-43+/-4%	-2%
Mean value^[11]	2.7+/-0.1^[10] (Base=936)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=982)	2.4+/-0.1^[10] (Base=490)	2.4+/-0.1 (Base=965)	2.3+/-0.1 (Base=941)	-0.1

[7] These questions only use sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned in the June 2012 survey, sub-sample sizes range from 501 to 532.
[8] The wordings used before the June 2010 survey were “social problems” and “social condition”. We take them to mean the same as “livelihood problems” and “livelihood condition” in the survey context.
[9] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of all percentages not more than +/-3%, that of ratings not more than +/-0.15 and net values not more than +/-5 percentage points, at 95% confidence level " when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[11] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[12] Some questions in this part were sponsored by “now news channel” in 2011 and the last survey results have been announced in the programme “News Magazine” and in the “now Survey on Public Sentiment Index" segment on 9 Jan 2012.

Latest survey showed that 60% of the respondents were most concerned with livelihood problems, 24% with economic problems, while 13% attached their greatest concern to political problems. Using a scale of 0-10 marks, the ratings of people’s concern over livelihood, economic and political problems were 7.32, 7.02 and 5.77 marks correspondingly. Meanwhile, people’s satisfaction rates with the current economic, livelihood and political conditions were 30%, 22% and 13% respectively, while their net satisfaction rates in these conditions were negative 9, negative 28 and negative 43 percentage points. The mean scores of the economic, livelihood and political conditions were 2.8, 2.6 and 2.3, meaning between “half-half” and “quite dissatisfied” in general.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of respondents’ satisfaction with the present livelihood condition in Hong Kong by age:

Date of survey：13-19/6/13		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall Sample
Generally speaking, are you satisfied with the present livelihood condition in Hong Kong? ^[13]	Satisfied	15+/-5% (28)	18+/-4% (71)	29+/-4% (131)	22+/-3% (229)
	Half-half	22+/-6% (43)	27+/-4% (106)	27+/-4% (120)	26+/-3% (269)
	Dissatisfied	63+/-7% (121)	54+/-5% (212)	42+/-5% (188)	50+/-3% (520)
	Don't know/ hard to say	1+/-1% (1)	1+/-1% (3)	2+/-1% (8)	1+/-1% (13)
	Total	100% (193)	100% (392)	100% (447)	100% (1,032)
	Mean value	2.3+/-0.1 (192)	2.4+/-0.1 (388)	2.8+/-0.1 (438)	2.6+/-0.1 (1,019)

[13] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, some items within the previous survey were conducted from December 27, 2012 to January 3, 2013 while this survey was conducted from June 13 to 19, 2013. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

10/6/13	Snowden, whistle-blower of US massive surveillance programme flees to Hong Kong.
9/6/13	Leung Chun-ying considers Occupy Central as an offense to law for no intention.
4/6/13	150,000 people participate in the June Fourth candlelight vigil.
3/6/13	Lee Shau-kee donates his land in New Territories for building homes to be sold to younger generation.
24/5/13	Barry Cheung Chun-yuen resigns from all of his official posts.
6/5/13	Strikers accept a 9.8 percent pay rise from contractors.
23/4/13	The government requests Legco for a $100 million donation to Sichuan government to aid quake victims.
16/4/13	The Executive Council approves the results of the MTR's fare adjustment mechanism.
24/3/13	The central government commits to achieve universal suffrage in Hong Kong by 2017.
27/2/13	The Financial Secretary John Tsang announces the 2013-14 Budget.
22/2/13	The Government announces new measures to head off a property bubble.
19/2/13	The Government approves the Kowloon Motor Bus Company's application to increase fares by 4.9 percent.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “According to our latest survey, using a one-in-three choices method, livelihood issues continue for many years to be people’s most concerned issues followed by economic and then political issues. The order is the same using absolute ratings of importance, but the absolute rating of concern for economic issues is significantly lower than that registered half a year ago. As for the satisfaction figures, people’s net satisfaction of the current economic, livelihood and political conditions are all negative, respectively at negative 9, negative 28 and negative 43 percentage points, not much different from those registered half a year ago. People are still least satisfied with the current political condition. In-depth analysis shows that the younger the respondents, the more dissatisfied they are with the current livelihood condition. We leave it for our readers to figure out the reasons for such feelings using detailed records shown in our ‘Opinion Daily’ feature page.”

Future Releases (Tentative)

June 26, 2013 (Wednesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and HKSAR Government
June 28, 2013 (Friday) 1pm to 2pm: HKSAR anniversary survey
July 2, 2013 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Ratings of top 10 political groups