HKU POP releases the latest trust and confidence indicatorsBack

Press Release on June 20, 2013

Special Announcements

(1) Preliminary Report and video clips of “OCLP Deliberation Series” DDay1 now released

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong earlier released the Preliminary Report of the “OCLP Deliberation Series” DDay1. Members of public and media are welcome to read the Chinese report at the “OCLP Deliberation Series” Feature Page of the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) and also at the “PopCon” e-platform (http://popcon.hk). The video clips of the plenary sessions and small group discussions of the public module are all available at the feature page, while some video clips of the supporters module are still being processed.

(2) Review of HKSAR anniversary

In the next two weeks, POP will release one-by-one the survey series of "HKSAR anniversary". Please see the "Future Releases" section for details.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,055 Hong Kong people between 10 and 13 June 2013 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that all trust and confidence indicators have dropped, some even reach new lows across many years, and worse than those registered before July 1 ten years ago. For example, compared to three months ago, people's trust in the HKSAR and Central Governments both plunge 12 percentage points, turning the net trust values from positive to negative, now at negative 5 and negative 20 percentage points respectively. People's trust in the HKSAR Government is now at record low since April 2004, their distrust at record high since December 2003, while their trust in the Central Government is at record low since February 1999, and their distrust at record high since February 1997. It is a worrying situation. As for the Taiwan Government, people's trust has remained stable, but distrust has gone up by 7 percentage points, giving a net trust value of negative 10 percentage points. As for the confidence indicators, although people's confidence in the future of Hong Kong and China have remained positive, with net values of positive 8 and 38 percentage points now, their negative appraisal of Hong Kong’s future jumps to a new high since June 2003, while that of China’s future jumps to a new high since July 1997. The net value of people’s confidence in ‘one country, two systems’ is no longer positive for the first time since August 1996, now at zero. Further analysis shows the younger the more distrust in the HKSAR and Central Governments. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while that of net values needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 68%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of the survey is 1,055 successful interviews, not 1,055 x 67.9% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and of net values not more than +/- 8% at 95% confidence level”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey, and rounding procedures in collating the figures, when quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest findings on people's trust in the HKSAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan governments, and their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems". As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2012 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
10-13/6/2013	1,055	67.9%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent popularity figures of SAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan governments and people’s confidence in the future as well as “one country, two systems” are summarized below:

Date of survey	4-12/6/2012	11-14/9/2012	5-13/12/2012	19-21/3/2013	10-13/6/2013	Latest Change
Total sample size^[7]	1,003	1,036	1,030	1,018	1,055	--
Overall response rate	63.4%	63.1%	66.7%	67.3%	67.9%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error ^[8]	--
Trust in HKSAR Government^[9]	35%	34%	45%^[10]	44%	32+/-4%	-12%^[10]
Distrust in HKSAR Government^[9]	32%	35%	27%^[10]	26%	37+/-4%	+11%^[10]
Net trust	3%	-1%	18%^[10]	18%	-5+/-6%	-23%^[10]
Mean value^[9]	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=537)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=543)	3.1+/-0.1^[10] (Base=632)	3.2+/-0.1 (Base=642)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=649)	-0.3^[10]
Trust in Beijing Government^[9]	32%^[10]	26%^[10]	33%^[10]	37%	25+/-3%	-12%^[10]
Distrust in Beijing Government^[9]	37%	40%	34%^[10]	32%	45+/-4%	+13%^[10]
Net trust	-5%	-14%^[10]	-1%^[10]	5%	-20+/-6%	-25%^[10]
Mean value^[9]	2.8+/-0.1^[10] (Base=515)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=536)	2.9+/-0.1^[10] (Base=564)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=598)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=623)	-0.4^[10]
Trust in Taiwan Government^[9]	24%^[10]	21%	19%	21%	20+/-3%	-1%
Distrust in Taiwan Government^[9]	29%	25%	27%	23%^[10]	30+/-4%	+7%^[10]
Net trust	-5%	-4%	-8%	-2%^[10]	-10+/-6%	-8%^[10]
Mean value^[9]	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=447)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=424)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=484)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=440)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=492)	-0.1
Confidence in HK’s future	53%^[10]	50%	58%^[10]	57%	50+/-4%	-7%^[10]
No-confidence in HK’s future	32%	38%^[10]	33%^[10]	32%	42+/-4%	+10%^[10]
Net confidence	21%	12%	25%^[10]	25%	8+/-8%	-17%^[10]
Confidence in China’s future	67%^[10]	66%	71%^[10]	68%	65+/-4%	-3%
No-confidence in China’s future	23%^[10]	24%	20%^[10]	21%	27+/-4%	+6%^[10]
Net confidence	44%	42%	51%^[10]	47%	38+/-7%	-9%^[10]
Confidence in “one country, two systems”	51%	46%^[10]	54%^[10]	56%	47+/-4%	-9%^[10]
No-confidence in “one country, two systems”	37%	44%^[10]	38%^[10]	35%	47+/-4%	+12%^[10]
Net confidence	14%	2%^[10]	16%^[10]	21%	0+/-8%	-21%

[7] The frequency of this series of questions is different for different questions. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from March 2011, these questions only use sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sub-sample sizes of the surveys range from 618 to 666, and the increased sampling errors have already been reflected in the figures tabulated.
[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and of net values not more than +/- 8% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Latest survey revealed that 32% of the respondents trusted the HKSAR Government, 25% trusted the Beijing Central Government, and 20% trusted the Taiwan Government. The mean scores of these trust indicators are 2.9, 2.6 and 2.8 respectively, meaning close to “half-half” in general. On the other hand, 50% of the respondents had confidence in Hong Kong’s future and 65% had confidence in China’s future, while 47% of the respondents were confident in “one country, two systems”.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of respondents' trust in HKSAR Government and Beijing Central Government by age:

Date of survey：10-13/6/13		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall Sample
Percentage of trust/distrust in HKSAR Government^[11]	Trust	18+/-7% (21)	25+/-5% (65)	44+/-6% (123)	32+/-4% (209)
	Half-half	28+/-8% (34)	36+/-6% (94)	22+/-5% (63)	29+/-4% (191)
	Distrust	54+/-9% (63)	38+/-6% (99)	29+/-5% (80)	37+/-4% (243)
	Don't know/ hard to say	0+/-0% (0)	1+/-1% (3)	4+/-2% (12)	2+/-1% (15)
	Total	100% (118)	100% (261)	100% (278)	100% (658)
	Mean value	2.4+/-0.2 (Base=118)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=258)	3.2+/-0.2 (Base=266)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=643)

[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Date of survey：10-13/6/13		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall Sample
Percentage of trust/distrust in Beijing Central Government^[12]	Trust	13+/-6% (15)	20+/-5% (51)	36+/-6% (94)	25+/-3% (160)
	Half-half	17+/-7% (21)	30+/-6% (79)	24+/-5% (63)	25+/-3% (162)
	Distrust	67+/-9% (79)	47+/-6% (123)	35+/-6% (91)	46+/-4% (293)
	Don't know/ hard to say	3+/-3% (4)	2+/-2% (6)	6+/-3% (16)	4+/-2% (26)
	Total	100% (118)	100% (260)	100% (263)	100% (642)
	Mean value	2.0+/-0.2 (Base=114)	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=253)	3.0+/-0.2 (Base=248)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=615)

[12] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, some items within the previous survey were conducted from March 19 to 21, 2013 while this survey was conducted from June 10 to 13, 2013. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

11/6/2013	Shenzhou X blasts off.
9/6/2013	Leung Chun-ying considers Occupy Central as an offense to law for no intention.
4/6/2013	150,000 people participate in the June Fourth candlelight vigil.
30/5/2013	Hong Kong's competitiveness declines to 3rd according to the World Competitiveness Survey by IMD.
24/5/2013	Barry Cheung Chun-yuen resigns from all of his official posts.
6/5/2013	Strikers accept a 9.8 percent pay rise from contractors.
27/4/2013	Chairman of the National People's Congress Standing Committee, Zhang Dejiang meets with the political parties in Hong Kong for the first time.
23/4/2013	The government requests Legco for a $100 million donation to Sichuan government to aid quake victims.
31/3/2013	The first human infection of H7N9 strain of bird flu is confirmed.
24/3/2013	The central government commits to achieve universal suffrage in Hong Kong by 2017.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our latest survey conducted in mid-June shows that all trust and confidence indicators have dropped, some even reach new lows across many years, and worse than those registered before July 1 ten years ago. For example, compared to three months ago, people's trust in the HKSAR and Central Governments both plunge 12 percentage points, turning the net trust values from positive to negative, now at negative 5 and negative 20 percentage points respectively. People's trust in the HKSAR Government is now at record low since April 2004, their distrust at record high since December 200 3, while their trust in the Central Government is at record low since February 1999, and their distrust at record high since February 1997. It is a worrying situation. As for the Taiwan Government, p eople's trust has remained stable, but distrust has gone up by 7 percentage points, giving a net trust value of negative 10 percentage points. As for the confidence indicators, although people's confidence in the future of Hong Kong and China have remained positive, with net values of positive 8 and 38 percentage points now, their negative appraisal of Hong Kong ’s future jumps a new high since June 2003, while that of China’s future jumps to a new high since July 1997. The net value of people’s confidence in ‘one country, two systems’ is no longer positive for the first time since August 1996, now at zero. Further analysis shows the younger the more distrust in the HKSAR and Central Governments . As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, readers are welcome to make their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'."

Future Releases (Tentative)

June 25, 2013 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: People’s appraisal of society's conditions
June 26, 2013 (Wednesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and HKSAR Government
June 27, 2013 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: Public Sentiment Index
June 28, 2013 (Friday) 1pm to 2pm: HKSAR anniversary survey
July 2, 2013 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Ratings of top 10 political groups