HKU POP releases findings on people’s feeling towards different governments and peoplesBack

Press Release on June 4, 2013

Special Announcement

“OCLP Deliberation Series” DDay1 to be held on June 9

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong is commissioned by the Secretariat of the “Occupy Central with Love and Peace” (OCLP) to organize the “OCLP Deliberation Series”, which aims to promote deliberation culture and pave the way for democratic development. There will be three Deliberation Days (DDays) in the Deliberation Series, and DDay1 is scheduled to be held on June 9 (Sunday), comprising one module for the general public and another module for campaign supporters. Details of these activities have been announced in the press conference held on May 23.

Abstract

POP conducted a double stage survey on Hong Kong citizens’ feeling towards different governments and peoples in May, by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that Hong Kong people feel much more positively about other peoples than their governments. Regarding the four cross-strait societies, the net value of Hong Kong people’s feeling towards fellow Hong Kong people is 53 percentage points higher than that towards the Hong Kong SAR government, that towards Taiwan people is 27 percentage points higher than that of the Taiwan government, that towards Macau people is 9 percentage points higher than that towards the Macau government, that towards Mainland Chinese people is 2 percentage points higher than that towards the Mainland Chinese government. However, it should be noted that Hong Kong people’s feeling towards Mainland Chinese has dropped sharply over the past 6 months, compressing the net value of affinity from positive 1 to negative 15 percentage points. This directly reflects the growing contradictions in the living culture of the two societies. As for countries and regions outside the cross-strait regions, Hong Kong people seem to dislike the governments of the Philippines, Japan, the United States and Thailand whereas they seem to like all peoples rather than dislike them, except with the people of the Philippines. These findings are worth studying by various governments. Moreover, compared to 6 months ago, Hong Kong people’s negative feelings towards the local and Mainland Chinese governments have both jumped. Their negative feeling towards the governments of Mainland China, Japan and the Phlippines are at their new high since 1997. Among them, that towards the Filippino government has also reached 86 percentge points net, which warrants attention. As for other reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, readers can make their own judgment using detailed records shown in our ‘Opinion Daily’ feature page. It should be noted, however, that our survey only covers regions and countries best known to Hong Kong people. Hong Kong people may well like or dislike other places much more, but because they are not the most well-known places, they do not appear on the list by design. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-1 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level while the sampling error of net values need another calculation. The response rate of the second stage opinion survey is 67%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey is 1,023 successful interviews, not 1,023 x 69.5% response rate, while the sample size of the second stage rating survey is 1,031 successful interviews, not 1,031 x 67.3% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of various percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net values not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey, and rounding procedures in collating the figures, when quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the survey findings on Hong Kong people’s feeling towards different governments and peoples. These surveys on governments are conducted at least once a year since 1997, while the surveys on peoples only began in 2007, this being the twelvth time. As a general practice, all figures released today have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2012 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages ^[6]
20-23/5/2013 (First stage naming survey)	1,023	69.5%	+/-3%
25-27/5/2013 (Second stage opinion survey)	1,031	67.3%	+/-3%

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. For this survey, the sub-sample size of all questions has been controlled to no less than 500. Corresponding sampling errors have been reported in the statistical tables.

The research design of our survey on “people’s feeling towards different governments and peoples” has been explained in detail under “Survey Method” in our corresponding web page. For many years, POP have selected 15 regions and countries that are best known to Hong Kong people, and conducted surveys to measure people’s feeling towards the governments of these places. Our primary objective was to map Hong Kong people’s cosmopolitan view over time. In 2007, we improved our research design. Our mid-2007 survey was divided into two stages, namely, a naming survey and an opinion survey. In the 2007 year-end survey, we further added the people module to the survey. In specific terms, in our naming survey, other than Hong Kong, Mainland China, Taiwan and Macau, respondents can name, unaided, up to ten regions or countries which they know best. The four cross-strait regions together with 12 other regions and countries most frequently mentioned in the naming stage were then shortlisted into the second stage, with their governments and peoples rated by respondents as “very positive”, “quite positive”, “half-half”, “quite negative” or “very negative”. In our first stage survey conducted on May 20 to 23, the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, France and Australia were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. Our second stage survey was conducted on May 25 to 27. The following table summarizes the findings of Hong Kong people’s feeling towards the governments and peoples of the four cross-strait regions.

Date of survey		23/11-1/12/11	23-30/5/12	16-20/11/12	25-27/5/13
Sample base		1,055	1,052	1,024	1,031
Overall response rate		69.6%	67.3%	65.9%	67.3%
Feeling towards different governments / peoples ^[8]		Finding	Finding	Finding	Base^[9]	Finding and error ^[7]	Latest change^[10]	Net difference with gov’ts / peoples
Hong Kong	People Positive	53%^[11]	51%	44%^[11]	573	46+/-4%	+2%	+53%
	People Negative	8%	8%	8%	573	9+/-2%	+1%
	Net value	45%	43%	36%^[11]	--	37+/-5%	+1%
	Government Positive	40%^[11]	23%^[11]	27%	573	19+/-3%	-8%^[11]	-53%
	Government Negative	25%	36%^[11]	23%^[11]	573	35+/-4%	+12%^[11]
	Net value	15%	-13%	4%^[11]	--	-16+/-6%	-20%^[11]
Mainland	People Positive	23%	28%^[11]	27%	638	21+/-3%	-6%^[11]	+2%
	People Negative	33%^[11]	29%	26%	638	36+/-4%	+10%^[11]
	Net value	-10%	-1%	1%	--	-15+/-6%	-16%^[11]
	Government Positive	33%^[11]	28%^[11]	29%	638	20+/-3%	-9%^[11]	-2%
	Government Negative	28%	32%	25%^[11]	638	37+/-4%	+12%^[11]
	Net value	5%	-4%	4%^[11]	--	-17+/-6%	-21%^[11]
Taiwan	People Positive	49%	57%^[11]	51%^[11]	565	57+/-4%	+6%^[11]	+27%
	People Negative	5%	5%	21%^[11]	565	3+/-2%	-18%^[11]
	Net value	44%	52%	49%	--	54+/-5%	+5%
	Government Positive	28%^[11]	38%^[11]	31%^[11]	565	35+/-4%	+4%	-27%
	Government Negative	19%^[11]	11%^[11]	8%^[11]	565	8+/-2%	--
	Net value	9%	27%	23%	--	27+/-5%	+4%
Macau	People Positive	44%^[11]	52%^[11]	48%	671	48+/-4%	--	+9%
	People Negative	3%	2%	1%	671	1+/-1%	--
	Net value	41%	50%	47%	--	47+/-4%	--
	Government Positive	45%^[11]	51%^[11]	51%	671	45+/-4%	-6%^[11]	-9%
	Government Negative	9%	10%	7%^[11]	671	7+/-2%	--
	Net value	36%	41%	44%	--	38+/-5%	-6%^[11]

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net values not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
[9] The sample size for each question varies, but has been controlled to no less than 500. Corresponding sampling errors have all been given.
[10] Comparison made with survey findings of 16-20/11/12.
[11] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Herewith the findings of Hong Kong people’s feelings towards the governments and peoples of 12 regions and countries other than the four cross-strait regions. They are ranked according to the net values of Hong Kong people's feelings towards their people, in descending order. If the values are the same, then they are sorted by the respective percentages of positive feelings.

Date of survey		23/11-1/12/11	23-30/5/12	16-20/11/12	25-27/5/13
Sample base		1,055	1,052	1,024	1,031
Overall response rate		69.6%	67.3%	65.9%	67.3%
Feeling towards different governments / peoples ^[13]		Finding	Finding	Finding	Base^[14]	Finding and error^[12]	Latest change^[15]	Net difference with gov’ts / peoples
Singapore	People Positive	56%	61%^[16]	58%	675	62+/-4%	+4%	+7%
	People Negative	3%	4%	1%^[16]	675	3+/-1%	+2%^[16]
	Net value	53%	57%	57%	--	59+/-4%	+2%
	Government Positive	55%	59%	58%	675	59+/-4%	+1%	-7%
	Government Negative	9%^[16]	7%	6%	675	7+/-2%	+1%
	Net value	46%	52%	52%	--	52+/-5%	--
Canada	People Positive	45%	52%^[16]	49%	568	51+/-4%	+2%	--
	People Negative	2%	2%	1%	568	2+/-1%	+1%
	Net value	43%	50%	48%	--	49+/-4%	+1%
	Government Positive	44%	48%	49%	568	51+/-4%	+2%	--
	Government Negative	2%	3%	1%^[16]	568	2+/-1%	+1%
	Net value	42%	45%	48%	--	49+/-5%	+1%
Australia	People Positive	43%	50%^[16]	47%	659	49+/-4%	+2%	+3%
	People Negative	3%	2%	2%	659	3+/-1%	+1%
	Net value	40%	48%	45%	--	46+/-4%	+1%
	Government Positive	36%	42%^[16]	41%	659	46+/-4%	+5%^[16]	-3%
	Government Negative	5%^[16]	4%	2%^[16]	659	3+/-1%	+1%
	Net value	31%	38%	39%	--	43+/-4%	+4%
United Kingdom	People Positive	45%^[16]	45%	41%	609	44+/-4%	+3%	+8%
	People Negative	6%	5%	4%	609	4+/-2%	--
	Net value	39%	40%	37%	--	40+/-5%	+3%
	Government Positive	37%	44%^[16]	39%^[16]	609	41+/-4%	+2%	-8%
	Government Negative	12%	9%	6%^[16]	609	9+/-2%	+3%^[16]
	Net value	25%	35%	33%	--	32+/-5%	-1%
South Korea	People Positive	42%^[16]	49%^[16]	39%^[16]	602	45+/-4%	+6%^[16]	+8%
	People Negative	7%	7%	7%	602	7+/-2%	--
	Net value	35%	42%	32%^[16]	--	38+/-5%	+6%^[16]
	Government Positive	31%^[16]	35%	32%	602	40+/-4%	+8%^[16]	-8%
	Government Negative	11%	14%	10%^[16]	602	10+/-2%	--
	Net value	20%	21%	22%	--	30+/-5%	+8%^[16]
Germany	People Positive	34%	39%^[16]	33%^[16]	654	39+/-4%	+6%^[16]	+7%
	People Negative	4%	4%	2%^[16]	654	3+/-1%	+1%
	Net value	30%	35%	31%	--	36+/-4%	+5%^[16]
	Government Positive	30%	36%^[16]	31%^[16]	654	34+/-4%	+3%	-7%
	Government Negative	6%^[16]	8%	3%^[16]	654	5+/-2%	+2%
	Net value	24%	28%	28%	--	29+/-4%	+1%
Japan	People Positive	55%^[16]	57%	42%^[16]	598	43+/-4%	+1%	+76%
	People Negative	8%	8%	13%^[16]	598	15+/-3%	+2%
	Net value	47%	49%	29%^[16]	--	28+/-6%	-1%
	Government Positive	27%	21%^[16]	11%^[16]	598	11+/-3%	--	-76%
	Government Negative	33%^[16]	41%^[16]	56%^[16]	598	59+/-4%	+3%
	Net value	-6%	-20%	-45%^[16]	--	-48+/-6%	-3%
Thailand	People Positive	37%^[16]	41%	39%	680	35+/-4%	-4%	+31%
	People Negative	9%^[16]	11%	8%^[16]	680	9+/-2%	+1%
	Net value	28%	30%	31%	--	26+/-5%	-5%
	Government Positive	17%^[16]	24%^[16]	23%	680	19+/-3%	-4%^[16]	-31%
	Government Negative	29%	30%	19%^[16]	680	24+/-3%	+5%^[16]
	Net value	-12%	-6%	4%^[16]	--	-5+/-5%	-9%^[16]
USA	People Positive	35%	38%	35%	592	33+/-4%	-2%	+32%
	People Negative	12%^[16]	12%	11%	592	12+/-3%	+1%
	Net value	23%	26%	24%	--	21+/-5%	-3%
	Government Positive	17%	20%	23%	592	21+/-3%	-2%	-32%
	Government Negative	40%^[16]	37%	32%^[16]	592	32+/-4%	--
	Net value	-23%	-17%	-9%^[16]	--	-11+/-6%	-2%
France	People Positive	27%	32%^[16]	26%^[16]	676	27+/-3%	+1%	+11%
	People Negative	7%	10%	6%^[16]	676	7+/-2%	+1%
	Net value	20%	22%	20%	--	20+/-4%	--
	Government Positive	14%	18%^[16]	16%	676	18+/-3%	+2%	-11%
	Government Negative	16%^[16]	19%	8%^[16]	676	9+/-2%	+1%
	Net value	-2%	-1%	8%^[16]	--	9+/-4%	+1%
Italy	People Positive	22%	24%	22%	654	26+/-3%	+4%^[16]	+12%
	People Negative	9%^[16]	8%	6%	654	7+/-2%	+1%
	Net value	13%	16%	16%	--	19+/-4%	+3%
	Government Positive	11%	17%^[16]	14%	654	18+/-3%	+4%^[16]	-12%
	Government Negative	18%^[16]	14%^[16]	13%	654	11+/-2%	-2%
	Net value	-7%	3%	1%	--	7+/-4%	+6%^[16]
The Philippines	People Positive	17%	17%	15%	666	11+/-2%	-4%^[16]	+56%
	People Negative	36%	38%	29%^[16]	666	41+/-4%	+12%^[16]
	Net value	-19%	-21%	-14%^[16]	--	-30+/-5%	-16%^[16]
	Government Positive	3%	3%	2%	666	1+/-1%	-1%	-56%
	Government Negative	79%	83%^[16]	76%^[16]	666	87+/-3%	+11%^[16]
	Net value	-76%	-80%	-74%^[16]	--	-86+/-3%	-12%^[16]

[12] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net values not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[13] Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
[14] The sample size for each question varies, but has been controlled to no less than 500. Corresponding sampling errors have all been given.
[15] Comparison made with survey findings of 16-20/11/12.
[16] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Our latest findings showed that, as regards the results of people’s feeling towards different peoples, 46% felt positive towards Hong Kong people themselves while the net value is positive 37 percentage points. For the other cross-strait regions, the corresponding positive figures for the Mainland, Taiwan and Macau peoples were 21%, 57% and 48% while their net values are negative 15, positive 54 and 47 percentage points respectively. As for the feelings on peoples of other regions and countries, the net values for Singapore, Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom, South Korea and Germany were highest, with positive 59, 49, 46, 40, 38 and 36 percentage points respectively, while those for Japan, Thailand, the United States, France and Italy were positive 28, 26, 21, 20 and 19 percentage points correspondingly. Lastly, the net value of feeling towards the people of the Philippines is negative 30 percentage points only.

Regarding the results of people’s feeling towards different governments, 19% felt positive towards the HKSAR government while the net value is negative 16 percentage points. For the other cross-strait governments, the corresponding positive figures for the Mainland, Taiwan and Macau governments were 20%, 35% and 45% while their net values are negative 17, positive 27 and 38 percentage points respectively. As for the feelings on other governments, the net values for Singapore and Canada were the highest, with positive 52 and 49 percentage points correspondingly, while those for Australia, the United Kingdom, South Korea, Germany, France and Italy were positive 43, 32, 30, 29, 9 and 7 percentage points correspondingly, those for Thailand, the United States and Japan were negative 5, 11 and 48 percentage points correspondingly. Lastly, the net value of feeling towards the Filippino government is negative 86 percentage points.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from November 16 to 20, 2012 while this survey was conducted from May 25 to 27, 2013. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

23/5/13	Japanese market slumps with the US quantitative tightening.
21/5/13	Executive Council member Barry Cheung Chun-yuen announces he is taking leave from all public offices.
20/4/13	A magnitude-7 shallow earthquake hits Lushan county of Ya' an city in Sichuan province.
16/4/13	Boston Marathon under terrorist attacks.
4/4/13	Three more suspected cases of H7N9 have been found in Shanghai.
31/3/13	The first human infection of H7N9 strain of bird flu is confirmed.
24/3/13	The central government commits to achieve universal suffrage in Hong Kong by 2017.
18/3/13	President Xi Jinping meets with Chief Executive CY Leung and Macau Chief Executive Fernando Chui in Beijing.
17/3/13	China's president Xi Jinping invokes his concept of the “China dream”.
26/2/13	Egypt Hot-air balloon explosion kills 19 tourists.
12/2/13	North Korea's third nuclear test.
2/1/13	The United States avoids the fiscal cliff.

Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung.

Our latest survey shows that Hong Kong people feel much more positively about other peoples than their governments. Regarding the four cross-strait societies, the net value of Hong Kong people’s feeling towards fellow Hong Kong people is 53 percentage points higher than that towards the Hong Kong SAR government, that towards Taiwan people is 27 percentage points higher than that of the Taiwan government, that towards Macau people is 9 percentage points higher than that towards the Macau government, that towards Mainland Chinese people is 2 percentage points higher than that towards the Mainland Chinese government. However, it should be noted that Hong Kong people’s feeling towards Mainland Chinese has dropped sharply over the past 6 months, compressing the net value of affinity from positive 1 to negative 15 percentage points. This directly reflects the growing contradictions in the living culture of the two societies.

As for countries and regions outside the cross-strait regions, Hong Kong people seem to dislike the governments of the Philippines, Japan, the United States and Thailand whereas they seem to like all peoples rather than dislike them, except with the people of the Philippines. These findings are worth studying by various governments.

Moreover, compared to 6 months ago, Hong Kong people’s negative feelings towards the local and Mainland Chinese governments have both jumped. Their negative feeling towards the governments of Mainland China, Japan and the Phlippines are at their new high since 1997. Among them, that towards the Filippino government has also reached 86 percentge points net, which warrants attention. As for other reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, readers can make their own judgment using detailed records shown in our ‘Opinion Daily’ feature page. It should be noted, however, that our survey only covers regions and countries best known to Hong Kong people. Hong Kong people may well like or dislike other places much more, but because they are not the most well-known places, they do not appear on the list by design.

Future Releases (Tentative)

June 6, 2013 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: Media Performance
June 11, 2013 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and Principal Officials