HKU POP releases the latest popularity figures of Executive CouncillorsBack

“OCLP Deliberation Series” DDay1 to be held on June 9
 
The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong is commissioned by the Secretariat of the “Occupy Central with Love and Peace” (OCLP) to organize the “OCLP Deliberation Series”, which aims to let members of the general public and supporters of the campaign to formulate proposals for the 2017 CE Election through rational discussions. There will be three Deliberation Days (DDays) in the Deliberation Series, and DDay1 is scheduled to be held on June 9 (Sunday), comprising one module for the general public and another module for campaign supporters. For the general public, POP will invite 100 Hong Kong citizens to participate in the event via random telephone calls, while for the campaign supporters, they will be invited by the OCLP Secretariat. Details of these activities will be announced in the press conference to be held this coming Thursday (May 23) at 11:00 a.m. in the University of Hong Kong.

The latest “top 5 Executive Councillors” survey conducted by POP before the Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange founded by Executive Councillor Barry Cheung closes its doors, and also before the Office of the Chief Executive announces the cancellation of today’s weekly Executive Council meeting, shows that Regina Ip topped the list in the naming survey again. Compared to three months ago, among the four Councillors who remain on the list, only Fanny Law and Starry Lee registered significant changes in popularity ratings, whose ratings go down by 3.0 and 2.8 marks respectively. In terms of absolute ratings, Bernard Chan, Lam Woon-kwong and Regina Ip get more than 50 marks. In terms of relative rankings, Bernard Chan re-enters the list to occupy the first position, Lam Woon-kwong remains at the second position, Regina Ip goes down two positions to rank the third. Fanny Law and Starry Lee both go down one position to occupy the fourth and fifth places respectively. It should be noted, however, that our list of ‘top 5’ only includes non-official Councillors best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other Councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known Councillors, they do not appear on the list by design. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while that of rating figures is below +/-2.4 marks. The response rate of the rating survey is 68%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey on top 5 Executive Councillors is 540 successful interviews, not 540 x 66.2% response rate, while that of the second stage rating survey is 1,057 successful interviews, not 1,057 x 67.7% response rate. 
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.4 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level".
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey, and rounding procedures in collating the figures, when quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of Executive Councillors. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2012 year-end.

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

The research design of our “Top 5 Executive Councillors” is similar to that of our “Top 10” series, it is explained in detail under “Survey Method” in our web page. The top Councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted from early-May. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 5 non-official Executive Councillors whom they knew best. Latest findings of the naming survey are as follows:

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level", meaning that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicates rankings in our naming survey. Councillors with the same recognition rate will be ranked according to the decimal place of the corresponding percentages. Please refer to the POP Site for detailed figures of the previous surveys. The error margin of previous surveys can also be found at the POP Site.
[8] The percentages of respondents who could name Bernard Chan and Anna Wu were 6.0% and 5.9%, so Bernard Chan ranked the 4th, while Anna Wu was placed at the 5th rank.
[9] The percentages of respondents who could name Arthur Li and Cheng Yiu-tong were 4.0% and 3.7%, so Arthur Li ranked the 6th, while Cheng Yiu-tong was placed at the 7th rank.
[10] The percentages of respondents who could name Laura Cha, Cheung Chi-kong, Franklin Lam, Andrew Liao, Chow Chung-kong and Cheung Hok-ming were 1.45%, 1.3%, 0.92%, 0.87%, 0.7% and 0.6%. Hence Laura Cha ranked the 9th, Cheung Chi-kong ranked the 10th, Franklin Lam ranked the 11th, Andrew Liao ranked the 12th, Chow Chung-kong ranked the 13th while Cheung Hok-ming was placed at the 14th rank.
[11] The percentages of respondents who could name Fanny Law and Laura Cha were 3.9% and 3.6%, so Fanny Law ranked the 5th, while Laura Cha was placed at the 6th rank.
[12] The percentages of respondents who could name Cheng Yiu-tong and Barry Cheung were 2.4% and 2.0%, so Cheng Yiu-tong ranked the 8th, while Barry Cheung was placed at the 9th rank.
[13] The percentages of respondents who could name Anna Wu, Cheung Chi-kong, Arthur Li and Andrew Liao were 1.2%, 1.1%, 1.0% and 0.5%. Hence Anna Wu ranked the 10th, Cheung Chi-kong ranked the 11th, Arthur Li ranked the 12th while Andrew Liao was placed at the 13th rank.
[14] The percentages of respondents who could name Cheung Hok-ming, and Jeffrey Lam were both 0.21%, while that for Chow Chung-kong was 0.1%. Hence Cheung Hok-ming and Jeffrey Lam were both placed at the 14th rank, while Chow Chung-kong ranked the 16th.
[15] The percentages of respondents who could name Bernard Chan, Cheung Chi-kong and Cheng Yiu-tong were 2.1%, 1.9% and 1.8%. Hence Bernard Chan ranked the 6th, Cheung Chi-kong ranked the 7th while Cheng Yiu-tong was placed at the 8th rank.
[16] The percentages of respondents who could name Anna Wu, Franklin Lam and Jeffrey Lam were 0.9%, 0.7% and 0.6%. Hence Anna Wu ranked the 9th, Franklin Lam ranked the 10th while Jeffrey Lam was placed at the 11th rank.
[17] The percentages of respondents who could name Laura Cha, Arthur Li and Andrew Liao were 0.3%, 0.2% and 0.1%. Hence Laura Cha ranked the 12th, Arthur Li ranked the 13th while Andrew Liao was placed at the 14th rank.
[18] Not a non-official Executive Councillor during the survey period.

The naming survey conducted in early-May showed that Regina Ip was named most frequently with a recognition rate of 9%. Fanny Law, Starry Lee, Lam Woon-kwong and Barry Cheung with recognition rates of 8%, 5%, 4% and 3%, and ranked the 2nd to 5th. However, 18% made a wrong attempt at citing Executive Councillors (non-official) while 68% had no clue.

Those 6 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted in mid-May, respondents were asked to rate each short-listed Councillor in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 1 Councillor in terms of recognition rate was dropped; the remaining 5 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 5 Executive Councillors. Recent ratings of the top 5 members of Executive Council are summarized as follows:

[19] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level", meaning that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.4 marks at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicates rankings. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[20] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 5 in either stage of survey are not available.
[21] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[22] Not a non-official Executive Councillor during the survey period.

The latest rating survey conducted in mid-May showed that Bernard Chan was the most popularly supported non-official Executive Councillor, attaining 57.9 marks. The 2nd and 3rd ranks went to Lam Woon-kwong and Regina Ip with 55.9 and 55.7 marks respectively. The 4th and 5th ranks went to Fanny Law and Starry Lee with 48.6 and 46.7 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by these top 5 non-official Executive Councillors was 53.0 marks. For this latest survey, Barry Cheung obtained a support rating of 46.7 marks, but he was dropped due to his relatively low recognition rate. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past year are tabulated as follows:

[23] “Average rating” is the average of all ratings obtained by Executive Councillors over the past 4 surveys.
[24] “Overall ranking” is first determined by their number of times on top 5, and then their average ratings.
[25] Not a non-official Executive Councillor during the survey period.

The overall rankings in the past year showed that three non-official Executive Councillors have been on the list for three times. Lam Woon-kwong, Fanny Law and Starry Lee ranked 1st to 3rd places respectively and achieved average ratings of 56.2, 48.8 and 47.8 marks. Regina Ip has been on the list twice with an average rating of 56.5 marks, ranked the 4th. Bernard Chan, Anthony Cheung, Ronald Arculli, Anna Wu, Arthur Li, Cheng Yiu-tong, Lau Kong-wah, Franklin Lam and Lau Wong-fat have been on the list once with ratings of 57.9, 52.4, 51.3, 49.8, 49.3, 45.6, 44.9, 42.3 and 34.6 marks, ranked at the 5th to 13th places respectively.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from January 28 to 31, 2013 while this survey was conducted from May 13 to 15, 2013. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “The latest ‘top 5 Executive Councillors’ survey conducted before the Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange founded by Executive Councillor Barry Cheung closes its doors, and also before the Office of the Chief Executive announces the cancellation of today’s weekly Executive Council meeting, shows that Regina Ip topped the list in the naming survey again. Compared to three months ago, among the four Councillors who remain on the list, only Fanny Law and Starry Lee registered significant changes in popularity ratings, whose ratings go down by 3.0 and 2.8 marks respectively. In terms of absolute ratings, Bernard Chan, Lam Woon-kwong and Regina Ip get more than 50 marks. In terms of relative rankings, Bernard Chan re-enters the list to occupy the first position, Lam Woon-kwong remains at the second position, Regina Ip goes down two positions to rank the third. Fanny Law and Starry Lee both go down one position to occupy the fourth and fifth places respectively. It should be noted, however, that our list of ‘top 5’ only includes non-official Councillors best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other Councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known Councillors, they do not appear on the list by design. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these popularity ratings, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in the ‘Opinion Daily’ of our POP Site.”

• May 28, 2013 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and HKSAR Government