HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officialsBack

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,017 Hong Kong people between May 2 and 7, 2013 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our survey shows that the general popularity of CE CY Leung has significantly dropped. Although his support rating has not dropped too much, it has gone back to the level registered in early March. It now stands at 49.0 marks. CE’s approval rate, however, has dropped significantly to 29%, disapproval rate climbs significantly to 54%, giving a net popularity of negative 25 percentage points. All three figures are at their poorest since he became CE. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 60.7 marks, her approval rate 54%, disapproval rate 8%, and net popularity positive 46 percentage points. As for FS John Tsang, his latest support rating is 53.8 marks, approval rate 41%, disapproval rate 20%, and net popularity positive 21 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 50.7 marks, approval rate 26%, disapproval rate 16%, giving a net popularity of positive 10 percentage points. Carrie Lam remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department, but her approval rate has dropped to all-time record low since she became CS. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 8 of the 12 Directors have gone down, 3 have gone up and 1 has remained unchanged. Among them, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung, Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So and Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man registered significant changes in net approval rates, down by 12 and 8 percentage points and up by 6 and 5 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, Paul Chan and Eddie Ng registered negative popularity, at negative 28 and 31 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director. According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Carrie Lam now falls under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Lai Tung-kwok, Matthew Cheung, John Tsang, Anthony Cheung, Tsang Tak-sing, Paul Chan and Eddie Ng can be labeled as “mediocre”, that of Ceajer Chan, Wong Kam-sing, Rimsky Yuen, Gregory So, Raymond Tam and Paul Tang can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. CY Leung falls into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”. According to records in our “Opinion Daily”, recent events which have pulled down the popularity of government officials may include the alleged misconduct of former ICAC head Timothy Tong, controversies over Sichuan donations, and dock workers’ strike. The maximum sampling errors of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net approval rates need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 66%.

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings and net approval rates are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.

[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.4, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

[10] The survey conducted on 27/2/2013 was the instant survey after the Budget Speech and only asked rating of FS as well as his vote of confidence.
[11] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[12] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.8, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[13] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates:

[14] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[15] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[16] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[17] In one decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam and Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing are 9.8 and 8.6 percentage points. Thus, they are ranked eighth and ninth respectively.
[18] In two decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So and Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang are 5.01 and 4.98 percentage points. Thus, they are ranked eighth and ninth respectively.

The latest survey showed that, CE CY Leung scored 49.0 marks, and 29% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 25 percentage points. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Carrie Lam, FS John Tsang and SJ Rimsky Yuen were 60.7, 53.8 and 50.7 marks, and 54%, 41% and 26% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. Their net approval rates are positive 46, 21 and 10 percentage points respectively.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, according to the net approval rates, results revealed that the top position goes to Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man, attaining positive 76 percentage points. The 2nd to 4th places belong to Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan and Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung with net approval rates positive 36, positive 33 and positive 27 percentage points respectively. Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So, Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, Secretary for Development Paul Chan and Secretary for Education Eddie Ng ranked 5th to 12th, their corresponding net approval rates are positive 17, positive 16, positive 6, positive 5, positive 5, positive 4, negative 28 and negative 31 percentage points. In other words, only Ko Wing-man scored net approval rate of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 2 to 10 April, 2013 while this survey was conducted from 2 to 7 May, 2013. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP, Robert Chung.

Our latest survey shows that the general popularity of CE CY Leung has significantly dropped. Although his support rating has not dropped too much, it has gone back to the level registered in early March. It now stands at 49.0 marks. CE’s approval rate, however, has dropped significantly to 29%, disapproval rate climbs significantly to 54%, giving a net popularity of negative 25 percentage points. All three figures are at their poorest since he became CE.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 60.7 marks, her approval rate 54%, disapproval rate 8%, and net popularity positive 46 percentage points. As for FS John Tsang, his latest support rating is 53.8 marks, approval rate 41%, disapproval rate 20%, and net popularity positive 21 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 50.7 marks, approval rate 26%, disapproval rate 16%, giving a net popularity of positive 10 percentage points. Carrie Lam remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department, but her approval rate has dropped to all-time record low since she became CS.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 8 of the 12 Directors have gone down, 3 have gone up and 1 has remained unchanged. Among them, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung, Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So and Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man registered significant changes in net approval rates, down by 12 and 8 percentage points and up by 6 and 5 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, Paul Chan and Eddie Ng registered negative popularity, at negative 28 and 31 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director.

According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Carrie Lam now falls under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Lai Tung-kwok, Matthew Cheung, John Tsang, Anthony Cheung, Tsang Tak-sing, Paul Chan and Eddie Ng can be labeled as “mediocre”, that of Ceajer Chan, Wong Kam-sing, Rimsky Yuen, Gregory So, Raymond Tam and Paul Tang can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. CY Leung falls into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”.

According to records in our “Opinion Daily”, recent events which have pulled down the popularity of government officials may include the alleged misconduct of former ICAC head Timothy Tong, controversies over Sichuan donations, and dock workers’ strike. The following table summarizes the grading of CE and the principal officials for readers' easy reference:

 [19] In two decimal place, the respective approval rates of FS John Tsang Chun-wah and Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung Bing-leung are 41.42 and 41.39 percentage points.

• May 21, 2013 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Ratings of top 5 Executive Councillors