HKU POP releases the latest rankings of political figuresBack

Press Release on May 7, 2013

Abstract

Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,002 Hong Kong people between April 23 and May 1 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. According to this latest survey, Leung Chun-ying continues to be the most visible political figure in Hong Kong, while Leung Kwok-hung and Wong Yuk-man rank 2nd and 3rd. Compared to 5 months ago, 8 people remain on the “top 10” list. Regina Ip and Albert Ho who ranked 6th and 7th last time have fallen out of the list after dropping 5 and 6 places to become 11th and 13th. They are replaced by Anson Chan and Emily Lau who have gone up 9 and 4 positions from the 14th and 11th places to occupy the 5th and 7th places. The ups and downs within the list are good reflections of our changing political environment. If we would like to study long term development, then using overall rankings accumulated over five years would be more appropriate. Figures show that Donald Tsang, Leung Kwok-hung, Wong Yuk-man, Henry Tang and Regina Ip are people’s most familiar political figures in the long run. It should be noted, however, that our ranking of “people’s most familiar political figures” is based on our surveys which requested respondents to name local political figures without prompting. This kind of familiarity measurement is not the same as prompted ratings. In other words, those high on the list may not be the most supported figures, while those lower down may have a different ranking if we use a prompting method. However, those who scored best in unprompted surveys are no doubt the most well-known political figures in Hong Kong. The maximum sampling error of percentages of people’s most familiar political figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level. The response rate of this survey is 68%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of the survey on people’s most familiar political figures, the sample size is 1,002 successful cases, not 1,002 x 68.4% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey, and rounding procedures in collating the figures, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the survey results of people’s most familiar political figures. As a general practice, all the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2012 year-end.

Herewith the contact information of survey on people’s most familiar political figures:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages ^[5]
23/4-1/5/2013	1,002	68.4%	+/-3%

[5] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

This survey on people’s most familiar political figures has been conducted for many years, with results initially released through our publication POP Express until October 2006 when we began to release them online. Between 1994 and 2005, the survey was conducted and released in the form of “top 10 political figures” using our usual “top 10” or “top 5” series survey design, which involved both naming and rating stages. Starting from October 2005, we simplified our “top 10 political figures” survey by just recording and analyzing the “naming” results, because we have already developed over time numerous rating surveys covering CE, government officials, members of Legislative and Executive Councils, and so on. As for the rating part, we only conduct supplementary rating surveys to cover those listed in the top 10 political figures but not covered in other rating surveys. Take our latest survey as an example, our supplementary rating survey of Donald Tsang, Anson Chan and Henry Tang will be conducted later and the results will be uploaded onto our POP Site in due course. Moreover, in our presentation of findings, different from the other “top 10” rating series, we introduced rankings from 1 to 50 for “people’s most familiar political figures”, as well as average accumulative rankings calculated from the past 10 surveys spanning over about five years, in order to indicate the ups-and-downs of these political figures in the long run. Please refer to our POP Site for details. Herewith the result of our latest survey on “people’s most familiar political figures”, other rankings beyond the “Top 10” can be found in the POP Site:

Date of survey	7-17/11/11		17-20/7/12		20-28/11/12		23/4-1/5/13		Average ranking over the past 10 surveys ^[9]
Sample base	1,016		1,018^[7]		1,001^[7]		1,002^[7]		--
Overall response rate	64.3%		65.8%		63.6%		68.4%		--
Sampling error of percentages (at 95% confidence level)^[6]	+/-3%		+/-3%		+/-3%		+/-3%		--
Latest finding/Rank	%	Rank	%	Rank	%	Rank	%	Rank	--
Leung Chun-ying	23%	7	66%	1	66%	1	57+/-4%	1	21.0
Leung Kwok-hung	27%	4	37%	2	33%^[8]	3	39+/-4%	2	3.2
Wong Yuk-man	25%	6	36%	3	33%^[8]	2	32+/-4%	3	3.7
Donald Tsang	40%	1	31%^[8]	5	26%	5	26+/-4%	4	2.1
Anson Chan	--	--	--	--	--	--	25+/-4%	5	11.3
Jasper Tsang	--	--	35%	4	20%	8	24+/-4%	6	7.9
Emily Lau	--	--	--	--	--	--	21+/-4%^[8]	7	9.3
Lee Cheuk-yan	18%	10	14%	--	15%	10	21+/-3%^[8]	8	10.4
Henry Tang	39%	2	27%	8	17%	9	21+/-3%^[8]	9	5.4
Carrie Lam	--	--	31%^[8]	6	30%	4	20+/-3%	10	35.5

[6] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[7] The sub-sample size in the survey conducted in July 2012 was 564, that in November 2012 was 518, while that in April 2013 was 545.
[8] The percentages of respondents who could name Donald Tsang and Carrie Lam were 31.4% and 30.9% respectively, so Donald Tsang ranked the 5th while Carrie Lam was placed at 6th rank. The percentages of respondents who could name Wong Yuk-man and Leung Kwok-hung were 32.7% and 32.6% respectively, so Wong Yuk-man ranked the 2nd while Leung Kwok-hung was placed at 3rd rank. The percentages of respondents who could name Emily Lau, Lee Cheuk-yan and Henry Tang were 21.3%, 20.8% and 20.6% respectively, so Emily Lau, Lee Cheuk-yan and Henry Tang were ranked the 7th, 8th and 9th.
[9] The earliest of the past 10 surveys was conducted during November 26 to 30, 2008. For each survey, those who ranked 50th or beyond and those not on the list are counted as 50th in our calculation of average rankings.

In our naming survey conducted in late-April, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political figures whom they knew best. Leung Chun-ying, Leung Kwok-hung and Wong Yuk-man were the top three. The corresponding percentages of respondents who could name these figures were 57%, 39% and 32%. Donald Tsang, Anson Chan and Jasper Tsang, occupied the 4th and 6th places with corresponding recognition rates of 26%, 25% and 24%. The 7th to 10th ranks fell to Emily Lau, Lee Cheuk-yan, Henry Tang and Carrie Lam respectively. Their corresponding recognition rates were 21%, 21%, 21% and 20%. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. For easy reference, POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since March 1997.

Herewith some of the results of our “people’s most familiar political figures” surveys accumulated over past 10 surveys spanning over about five years:

28/5-2/6/2008──20-28/11/2012^[10]						26-30/11/2008──23/4-1/5/2013^[10]
Overall rank	Pol. figures	Av. Rank for 10 surveys	Over all rank	Pol. figures	Av. rank for 10 surveys	Overall rank	Pol. figures	Av. rank for 10 surveys	Over all rank	Pol. figures	Av. rank for 10 surveys
1	Donald Tsang	1.8	11	Lee Cheuk-yan	11.2	1	Donald Tsang	2.1	11	Audrey Eu	11.4
2	Leung Kwok-hung	4.1	12	John Tsang	13.2	2	Leung Kwok-hung	3.2	12	Albert Ho	12.5
3	Henry Tang	5.0	13	Albert Ho	13.9	3	Wong Yuk-man	3.7	13	John Tsang	13.5
4	Regina Ip	6.7	14	Rita Fan	14.1	4	Henry Tang	5.4	14	Alan Leong	15.1
5	Wong Yuk-man	7.9	15	Alan Leong	15.2	5	Regina Ip	7.0	15	Rita Fan	15.4
6	Jasper Tsang	8.5	16	Tam Yiu-chung	16.6	6	Jasper Tsang	7.9	16	Tam Yiu-chung	16.8
7	Martin Lee	8.7	17	James Tien	19.8	7	Emily Lau	9.3	17	Albert Chan	19.9
8	Emily Lau	9.6	18	Tung Chee-wa	21.3	8	Martin Lee	9.7	18	Leung Chun-ying	21.0
9	Audrey Eu	10.5	19	Albert Chan	23.4	9	Lee Cheuk-yan	10.4	19	Tung Chee-hwa	21.0
10	Anson Chan	11.1	20	Leung Chun-ying	23.7	10	Anson Chan	11.3	20	James Tien	21.3

[10] For each survey, those who ranked 50th or beyond and those not on the list are counted as 50th in our calculation of average rankings.

Based on the results of the past 10 surveys, Donald Tsang has the highest overall rank with an average ranking of 2.1. Leung Kwok-hung has the 2nd highest overall rank with an average ranking of 3.2. The overall ranks of Wong Yuk-man and Henry Tang come 3rd and 4th respectively, with average rankings of 3.7 and 5.4. The overall ranks of Regina Ip and Jasper Tsang come 5th and 6th with average rankings of 7.0 and 7.9 respectively. The 7th to 10th overall ranks go to Emily Lau, Martin Lee, Lee Cheuk-yan and Anson Chan, with corresponding average rankings of 9.3, 9.7, 10.4 and 11.3.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from November 20 to 28, 2012, while this survey was conducted from April 23 to May 1, 2013. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

30/4/13	Inquiry report of Lamma ferry tragedy puts blame on Marine Department.
23/4/13	The government requests Legco for a $100 million donation to Sichuan government to aid quake victims.
18/4/13	Global Stevedoring Service Co. decides to close down.
16/4/13	The Executive Council approves the results of the MTR's fare adjustment mechanism.
1/4/13	HIT has won the injunction to bar strikers from entering the terminals.
18/3/13	President Xi Jinping meets with Chief Executive CY Leung and Macau Chief Executive Fernando Chui in Beijing.
22/2/13	The Government announces new measures to head off a property bubble.
19/2/13	The Government approves the Kowloon Motor Bus Company's application to increase fares by 4.9 percent.
8/2/13	Government consults three options on toll increase to bypass traffic in tunnels.
1/2/13	Government announces the measures to ensure infant formula supply.
16/1/13	The Chief Executive CY Leung delivered 2013 Policy Address.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “The purpose of our ranking of political figures is to show the changing political ecology by studying the ups and downs of people’s familiarity with these figures over time. According to our latest survey, Leung Chun-ying continues to be the most visible political figure in Hong Kong, while Leung Kwok-hung and Wong Yuk-man rank 2nd and 3rd. Compared to 5 months ago, 8 people remain on the ‘top 10’ list. Regina Ip and Albert Ho who ranked 6th and 7th last time have fallen out of the list after dropping 5 and 6 places to become 11th and 13th. They are replaced by Anson Chan and Emily Lau who have gone up 9 and 4 positions from the 14th and 11th places to occupy the 5th and 7th places. The ups and downs within the list are good reflections of our changing political environment. If we would like to study long term development, then using overall rankings accumulated over five years would be more appropriate. Figures show that Donald Tsang, Leung Kwok-hung, Wong Yuk-man, Henry Tang and Regina Ip are people’s most familiar political figures in the long run. It should be noted, however, that our ranking of ‘people’s most familiar political figures’ is based on our surveys which requested respondents to name local political figures without prompting. This kind of familiarity measurement is not the same as prompted ratings. In other words, those high on the list may not be the most supported figures, while those lower down may have a different ranking if we use a prompting method. However, those who scored best in unprompted surveys are no doubt the most well-known political figures in Hong Kong. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these rankings, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’.”

Future Release (Tentative)

May 14, 2013 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and Principal Officials