HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and the GovernmentBack

Press Release on April 30, 2013

Special Announcement

“Voices from the Hall” jointly organized by The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong and Radio Television Hong Kong (RTHK) will be held on Sunday, May 5. About 100 Hong Kong citizens randomly selected by POP will be invited to attend a deliberation session on the topic of “Chief Executive Election in 2017”. Guest speakers will include Fanny Law, Tam Yiu-chung, Albert Ho and Benny Tai. Changes in opinion among the participants before and after the debate will also be analyzed. For this activity, POP has launched a “POP App” for smartphone users, and constructed a feature page for “Voices from the Hall” at PopCon (http://popcon.hk). Opinions from netizens will be collected through online surveys and forums. People can now download the App from Google Play or iOS App Store, or submit their opinion to PopCon directly.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,023 Hong Kong people between 17 and 25 April 2013 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that all popularity figures of CE CY Leung have not registered any significant change over the past two weeks. This phenomenon has straddled two consecutive surveys, probably because the CE has stayed low-key recently. The latest support rating of CE CY Leung stands at 49.9 marks, approval rate at 35%, disapproval rate at 49%, giving a net popularity of negative 14 percentage points. As for the SAR Government, its popularity has also not changed much over the past month. Latest satisfaction rate is 29%, dissatisfaction rate at 36%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 7 percentage points. Indepth analysis shows that those aged between 18 and 29 are most critical of CY Leung as CE. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 69%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,023 successful interviews, not 1,023 x 68.6% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure and net value needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.5 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level".
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey, and rounding procedures in collating the figures, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2012 year-end.

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
17-25/4/2013	1,023	68.6%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	1-6/2/13	18-21/2/13	27/2-6/3/13	21-27/3/13	2-10/4/13	17-25/4/13	Latest change
Sample base	1,005	1,027	1,023	1,003	1,007	1,023	--
Overall response rate	64.6%	65.5%	65.5%	67.1%	66.2%	68.6%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[7]	--
Rating of CE CY Leung	46.3^[9]	48.0 ^[9]	48.6	51.4^[9]	50.5	49.9+/-1.5	-0.6
Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung	31%	31%	33%	32%	32%	35+/-3%	+3%
Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung	53%^[9]	51%	49%	51%	51%	49+/-3%	-2%
Net approval rate	-22%^[9]	-20%	-16%	-19%	-19%	-14+/-6%	+5%
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	--	28%	--	28%	--	29+/-4%	+1%
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	--	38%^[9]	--	34%	--	36+/-4%	+2%
Net satisfaction rate	--	-10%^[9]	--	-6%	--	-7+/-7%	-1%
Mean value^[8]	--	2.8+/-0.1^[9] (Base=531)	--	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=655)	--	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=595)	-0.1

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.5, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Starting from March 2011, this question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 599.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey showed that, CE Leung Chun-ying scored 49.9 marks, and 35% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 14 percentage points. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 29% were satisfied, whereas 36% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 7 percentage points. The mean score is 2.8, meaning close to “half-half”.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. Herewith further analysis of the support rate of Leung Chun-ying as Chief Executive by respondents' age:

Date of survey: 17-25/4/2013		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall sample
Support / Oppose Leung Chun-ying as CE^[10]	Support	24+/-6% (45)	34+/-5% (132)	40+/-5% (174)	35+/-3% (351)
	Oppose	68+/-7% (128)	46+/-5% (177)	43+/-5% (187)	49+/-3% (492)
	Don’t know / Hard to say	8+/-4% (15)	19+/-4% (74)	17+/-4% (73)	16+/-2% (162)
	Total	100% (188)	100% (382)	100% (435)	100% (1,005)

[10] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 21 to 27 March, 2013, while this survey was conducted from 17 to 25 April, 2013. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

24/4/13	Government's request of a HK$100 million donation to the Sichuan government to aid quake victims is on hold.
23/4/13	The government requests Legco for a $100 million donation to Sichuan government to aid quake victims.
20/4/13	A magnitude-7 shallow earthquake hits Lushan country of Ya' an city in Sichuan province.
18/4/13	Global Stevedoring Service Co. decides to close down.
16/4/13	The Executive Council approves the results of the MTR's fare adjustment mechanism.
13/4/13	Media continues to report the news of H7N9 bird flu.
4/4/13	The negotiation between dock workers and contractors fails.
1/4/13	HIT has won the injunction to bar strikers from entering the terminals.
26/3/13	The top court rules that foreign domestic helpers does not have the right to apply for permanent residency in Hong Kong.
24/3/13	The central government commits to achieve universal suffrage in Hong Kong by 2017.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed, “Our latest survey shows that all popularity figures of CE CY Leung have not registered any significant changes over the past two weeks. This phenomenon has straddled two consecutive surveys, probably because the CE has stayed low-key recently. The latest support rating of CE CY Leung stands at 49.9 marks, approval rate at 35%, disapproval rate at 49%, giving a net popularity of negative 14 percentage points. As for the SAR Government, its popularity has also not changed much over the past month. Latest satisfaction rate is 29%, dissatisfaction rate at 36%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 7 percentage points. Indepth analysis shows that those aged between 18 and 29 are most critical of CY Leung as CE. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’.”

Future Release (Tentative)

May 7, 2013 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: People's most familiar political figures