HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officialsBack


Press Release on April 16, 2013

| Special Announcement | Abstract | Latest Figures |Opinion Daily |Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Chief Executive/Popularity of Principal Officials) |


Special Announcement

“PopVote Civil Referendum Project” kicks off again and calls for public donations

 

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong and Centre for Social Policy Studies at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University jointly held a press conference some time ago to introduce the future development of the “PopVote Civil Referendum Project”, as well as to invite donations of HKD800,000 from public to construct and enhance the e-Voting system. The general public can log onto the "Donate Now" page of the "PopVote" website (http://popvote.hk) and leave their contact information if they wish to make a donation.


 

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,007 Hong Kong people between April 2 and 10, 2013 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our survey shows that the popularity figures of CE CY Leung have remained almost unchanged over the past two weeks. His latest support rating stands at 50.5 marks, approval rate at 32%, disapproval rate at 51%, giving a net popularity of negative 19 percentage points. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 62.2 marks, her approval rate 56%, disapproval rate 7%, and net popularity positive 49 percentage points. As for FS John Tsang, his latest support rating is 51.9 marks, approval rate 36%, disapproval rate 21%, and net popularity positive 15 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 50.3 marks, approval rate 27%, disapproval rate 16%, giving a net popularity of positive 11 percentage points. Carrie Lam remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 11 of the 12 Directors have gone down and 1 has remained unchanged. Among them, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang and Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man registered significant drops in net approval rates, down by 16, 12, 8, 8, 6 and 6 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, Gregory So, Paul Chan and Eddie Ng registered negative popularity, at negative 1, 24 and 25 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director. How recent incidents like the strike of dock workers, and the spread of H7N9 bird flu would affect the popularity of various Principal Officials are yet to be seen. According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Carrie Lam and Lai Tung-kwok now fall under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Matthew Cheung, Anthony Cheung, John Tsang, Tsang Tak-sing, Paul Chan and Eddie Ng can be labeled as “mediocre”, that of Ceajer Chan, Wong Kam-sing, Rimsky Yuen, Raymond Tam, Gregory So and Paul Tang can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. CY Leung falls into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”. The maximum sampling errors of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net approval rates need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 66%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,007 successful interviews, not 1,007 x 66.2% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages of each survey is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net approval rates needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.0, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level".
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey, and rounding procedures in collating the figures, when quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

 


Latest Figures

POP today releases the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and various Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2012 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

 

Date of survey

Overall sample size

Response rate

Maximum sampling error of percentages[6]

2-10/4/2013

1,007

66.2%

+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings and net approval rates are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

 

As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sampling errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:

 

                   

Sample size
(total sample or sub-sample)

Sampling error of percentages[7]
(maximum values)

Sample size
(total sample or sub-sample)

Sampling error of percentages[7]
(maximum values)

1,300

+/- 2.8 %

1,350

+/- 2.7 %

1,200

+/- 2.9 %

1,250

+/- 2.8 %

1,100

+/- 3.0 %

1,150

+/- 3.0 %

1,000

+/- 3.2 %

1,050

+/- 3.1 %

900

+/- 3.3 %

950

+/- 3.2 %

800

+/- 3.5 %

850

+/- 3.4 %

700

+/- 3.8 %

750

+/- 3.7 %

600

+/- 4.1 %

650

+/- 3.9 %

500

+/- 4.5 %

550

+/- 4.3 %

400

+/- 5.0 %

450

+/- 4.7 %

[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.

 

Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung are summarized as follows:


Date of survey

18-24/1/13

1-6/2/13

18-21/2/13

27/2-6/3/13

21-27/3/13

2-10/4/13

Latest change

Sample base

1,024

1,005

1,027

1,023

1,003

1,007

--

Overall response rate

66.3%

64.6%

65.5%

65.5%

67.1%

66.2%

--

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding and error[8]

--

Rating of CE CY Leung

48.1

46.3[9]

48.0 [9]

48.6

51.4[9]

50.5+/-1.5

-0.9

Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung

34%

31%

31%

33%

32%

32+/-3%

--

Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung

48%

53%[9]

51%

49%

51%

51+/-3%

--

Net approval rate

-14%

-22%[9]

-20%

-16%

-19%

-19+/-6%

--

[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.5, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.


Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

 

Date of survey

2-9/1/13

1-6/2/13

27/2/13[10]

27/2-6/3/13

2-10/4/13

Latest change [11]

Sample base[11]

632-665

592-662

1,010

615-649

552-610

--

Overall response rate

67.7%

64.6%

67.3%

65.5%

66.2%

--

Latest finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding & error [12]

--

Rating of CS Carrie Lam

63.4

60.6[13]

--

60.9

62.2+/-1.5

+1.3

Vote of confidence in CS Carrie Lam

63%

57%[13]

--

60%

56+/-4%

-4%

Vote of no confidence in CS Carrie Lam

6%[13]

9%[13]

--

7%

7+/-2%

--

Net approval rate

57%

48%[13]

--

53%

49+/-5%

-4%

Rating of FS John Tsang

57.7

57.8

56.6

52.1[13]

51.9+/-1.6

-0.2

Vote of confidence in FS John Tsang

54%

54%

48%

39%[13]

36+/-4%

-3%

Vote of no confidence in FS John Tsang

13%

8%[13]

12%

20%[13]

21+/-3%

+1%

Net approval rate

41%

46%

36%

19%[13]

15+/-6%

-4%

Rating of SJ Rimsky Yuen

50.3[13]

47.8[13]

--

49.3

50.3+/-2.0

+1.0

Vote of confidence in SJ Rimsky Yuen

28%

24%[13]

--

26%

27+/-4%

+1%

Vote of no confidence in SJ Rimsky Yuen

17%[13]

18%

--

16%

16+/-3%

--

Net approval rate

11%[13]

6%

--

10%

11+/-6%

+1%

[10] The survey conducted on 27/2/2013 was the instant survey after the Budget Speech and only asked rating of FS as well as his vote of confidence.
[11] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[12] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.0, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[13] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

 

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates:

 

Date of survey

1-6/2/13

27/2-6/3/13

2-10/4/2013

Latest change

Sample base [14]

564-657

570-692

566-644

--

Overall response rate

64.6%

65.5%

66.2%

--

Sample base for each question/ Percentage of answer

Base

%

Base

%

Base

% & error [15]

--

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man

643

75%[16]

601

80%[16]

611

75+/-4%

-5%[16]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man

643

7%[16]

601

3%[16]

611

4+/-2%

+1%

Net approval rate

--

68%[16]

--

77%[16]

--

71+/-4%

-6%[16]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok

590

52%

670

55%

644

53+/-4%

-2%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok

590

10%

670

11%

644

9+/-2%

-2%

Net approval rate

--

42%

--

44%

--

44+/-5%

--

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan

604

43%

685

48%[16]

610

39+/-4%

-9%[16]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan

604

6%

685

9%

610

8+/-2%

-1%

Net approval rate

--

37%

--

39%

--

31+/-5%

-8%[16]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung

606

53%

645

57%

585

49+/-4%

-8%[16]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung

606

10%

645

12%

585

20+/-3%

+8%[16]

Net approval rate

--

43%

--

45%

--

29+/-7%

-16%[16]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung

599

42%[16]

611

44%

618

42+/-4%

-2%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung

599

15%

611

16%

618

15+/-3%

-1%

Net approval rate

--

27%[16]

--

28%

--

27+/-6%

-1%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing

657

37%

692

40%

590

33+/-4%

-7%[16]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing

657

15%

692

10%[16]

590

15+/-3%

+5%[16]

Net approval rate

--

22%[16]

--

30%[16]

--

18+/-6%

-12%[16]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam

600

31%

656

26%[16]

600

26+/-4%

--

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam

600

11%[16]

656

17%[16]

600

18+/-3%

+1%

Net approval rate

--

20%

--

9% [16][17]

--

8+/-5%

-1%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing

610

36%

570

35%

566

32+/-4%

-3%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing

610

18%[16]

570

26%[16]

566

25+/-4%

-1%

Net approval rate

--

18%[16]

--

9% [16][17]

--

7+/-6%

-2%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang

640

18%[16]

593

21%

612

17+/-3%

-4%[16]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang

640

8%

593

9%

612

11+/-3%

+2%

Net approval rate

--

10%[16]

--

12%

--

6+/-4%

-6%[16]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So

589

25%

644

27%

593

21+/-3%

-6%[16]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So

589

16%

644

20%[16]

593

22+/-3%

+2%

Net approval rate

--

9%

--

7%

--

-1+/-5%

-8%[16]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Paul Chan

564

19%

582

23%[16]

581

21+/-3%

-2%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Paul Chan

564

48%

582

43%[16]

581

45+/-4%

+2%

Net approval rate

--

-29%

--

-20%[16]

--

-24+/-7%

-4%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Eddie Ng

623

24%

621

23%

628

20+/-3%

-3%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Eddie Ng

623

43%[16]

621

44%

628

45+/-4%

+1%

Net approval rate

--

-19%

--

-21%

--

-25+/-6%

-4%

[14] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[15] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[16] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[17] In one decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam and Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing are 9.8 and 8.6 percentage points. Thus, they are ranked eighth and ninth respectively.

 

The latest survey showed that, CE CY Leung scored 50.5 marks, and 32% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 19 percentage points. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Carrie Lam, FS John Tsang and SJ Rimsky Yuen were 62.2, 51.9 and 50.3 marks, and 56%, 36% and 27% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. Their net approval rates are positive 49, 15 and 11 percentage points respectively.

 

As for the Directors of Bureaux, according to the net approval rates, results revealed that the top position goes to Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man, attaining positive 71 percentage points. The 2nd to 5th places belong to Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung and Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung with net approval rates positive 44, positive 31, positive 29 and positive 27 percentage points respectively. Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So, Secretary for Development Paul Chan and Secretary for Education Eddie Ng ranked 6th to 12th, their corresponding net approval rates are positive 18, positive 8, positive 7, positive 6, negative 1, negative 24 and negative 25 percentage points. In other words, only Ko Wing-man scored net approval rate of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux.


Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

 

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 27 February to 6 March, 2013 while this survey was conducted from 2 to 10 April, 2013. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

 

6/4/13

Media continues to report the news of H7N9 bird flu.

4/4/13

Three more suspected cases of H7N9 have been found in Shanghai.

4/4/13

The negotiation between dock workers and contractors fails.

1/4/13

HIT has won the injunction to bar strikers from entering the terminals.

31/3/13

The first human infection of H7N9 strain of bird flu is confirmed.

25/3/13

The top court rules that foreign domestic helpers does not have the right to apply for permanent residency in Hong Kong.

24/3/13

The central government commits to achieve universal suffrage in Hong Kong by 2017.

18/3/13

President Xi Jinping meets with Chief Executive CY Leung and Macau Chief Executive Fernando Chui in Beijing.

28/2/13

The Development Bureau announces abolishing land sales by the Application Mechanism.

27/2/13

The Financial Secretary John Tsang announces the 2013-14 Budget.



Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP, Robert Chung.

 

Our latest survey shows that the popularity figures of CE CY Leung have remained almost unchanged over the past two weeks. His latest support rating stands at 50.5 marks, approval rate at 32%, disapproval rate at 51%, giving a net popularity of negative 19 percentage points.

 

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 62.2 marks, her approval rate 56%, disapproval rate 7%, and net popularity positive 49 percentage points. As for FS John Tsang, his latest support rating is 51.9 marks, approval rate 36%, disapproval rate 21%, and net popularity positive 15 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 50.3 marks, approval rate 27%, disapproval rate 16%, giving a net popularity of positive 11 percentage points. Carrie Lam remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department.

 

As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 11 of the 12 Directors have gone down and 1 has remained unchanged. Among them, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang and Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man registered significant drops in net approval rates, down by 16, 12, 8, 8, 6 and 6 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, Gregory So, Paul Chan and Eddie Ng registered negative popularity, at negative 1, 24 and 25 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director. How recent incidents like the strike of dock workers, and the spread of H7N9 bird flu would affect the popularity of various Principal Officials are yet to be seen.

 

According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Carrie Lam and Lai Tung-kwok now fall under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Matthew Cheung, Anthony Cheung, John Tsang, Tsang Tak-sing, Paul Chan and Eddie Ng can be labeled as “mediocre”, that of Ceajer Chan, Wong Kam-sing, Rimsky Yuen, Raymond Tam, Gregory So and Paul Tang can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. CY Leung falls into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”.

 

The following table summarizes the grading of CE and the principal officials for readers' easy reference:

 

"Ideal": those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man (75%)

 

"Successful": those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

CS Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (56%); Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok (53%)

 

"Mediocre": those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (49%); Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung Bing-leung (42%); FS John Tsang Chun-wah (36%); Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing (32%); Secretary for Development Paul Chan Mo-po (21%); Secretary for Education Eddie Ng Hak-kim (20%)

 

"Inconspicuous": those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate

Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung (39%, 47%); Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (33%, 47%); SJ Rimsky Yuen Kwok-keung (27%, 43%); Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam Chi-yuen (26%, 44%); Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So Kam-leung (21%, 43%); Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang Kwok-wai (17%, 28%)

 

"Depressing": those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

CE Leung Chun-ying (51%)

 

"Disastrous": those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

--

 


Future Release (Tentative)

  • April 23, 2013 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of Top Ten Legislative Councillors



| Special Announcement | Abstract | Latest Figures |Opinion Daily |Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Chief Executive/Popularity of Principal Officials) |