HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and the GovernmentBack

Press Release on April 2, 2013

Special Announcement

“PopVote Civil Referendum Project” kicks off again and calls for public donations

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong and Centre for Social Policy Studies at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University jointly held a press conference some time ago to introduce the future development of the “PopVote Civil Referendum Project”, as well as to invite donations of HKD800,000 from public to construct and enhance the e-Voting system. The general public can log onto the "Donate Now" page of the "PopVote" website (http://popvote.hk) and leave their contact information if they wish to make a donation.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,003 Hong Kong people between 21 and 27 March 2013 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that the support rating of CE CY Leung has recovered to more than 50 marks, but his approval rate is still low, with a net popularity of negative 19 percentage points. As for the SAR Government, its popularity has not changed much over the past month. Satisfaction rate remains unchanged, while dissatisfaction rate goes down by 4 percentage points, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 6 percentage points. Indepth analysis shows that those aged between 18 and 29 are most critical of CY Leung as CE, and most dissatisfied with the performance of the SAR Government. As for the five specific policy areas, in terms of net satisfaction rate, only relations with the Central Government and maintaining economic prosperity have registered positive values at positive 19 and positive 3 percentage points. The other three items all registered negative values: improving people's livelihood at negative 15 percentage points, protection of human rights and freedom at negative 15 percentage points, and developing democracy at negative 28 percentage points. Compared to three months ago, the net satisfaction of relations with the Central Government has registered significant improvement, while protection of human rights and freedom, and improving people's livelihood have registered significant drops. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 67%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,003 successful interviews, not 1,003 x 67.1% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure and net value needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.5 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level".
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey, and rounding procedures in collating the figures, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2012 year-end.

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
21-27/3/2013	1,003	67.1%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	16/1/13^[10]	18-24/1/13	1-6/2/13	18-21/2/13	27/2-6/3/13	21-27/3/13	Latest change
Sample base	1,021	1,024	1,005	1,027	1,023	1,003	--
Overall response rate	68.7%	66.3%	64.6%	65.5%	65.5%	67.1%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[7]	--
Rating of CE CY Leung	52.2^[9]	48.1	46.3^[9]	48.0 ^[9]	48.6	51.4+/-1.5	+2.8^[9]
Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung	35%^[9]	34%	31%	31%	33%	32+/-3%	-1%
Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung	46%^[9]	48%	53%^[9]	51%	49%	51+/-3%	+2%
Net approval rate	-11%^[9]	-14%	-22%^[9]	-20%	-16%	-19+/-6%	-3%
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	--	26%	--	28%	--	28+/-3%	--
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	--	45%^[9]	--	38%^[9]	--	34+/-4%	-4%
Net satisfaction rate	--	-19%^[9]	--	-10%^[9]	--	-6+/-6%	+4%
Mean value^[8]	--	2.6+/-0.1^[9] (Base=618)	--	2.8+/-0.1^[9] (Base=531)	--	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=655)	+0.1

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.5, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Starting from March 2011, this question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 666.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[10] This survey was the instant survey after the Policy Address and only asked rating of CE as well as his vote of confidence.

The latest survey showed that, CE Leung Chun-ying scored 51.4 marks, and 32% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 19 percentage points. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 28% were satisfied, whereas 34% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 6 percentage points. The mean score is 2.9, meaning close to “half-half”.

Recent figures on people's appraisal of the five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	16-21/3/12	19-25/6/12	18-27/9/12	18-28/12/12	21-27/3/13	Latest Change^[14]
Sample base^[14]	552-681	512-543	569-691	633-661	605-681	--
Overall response rate	62.8%	69.6%	67.8%	65.7%	67.1%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding]	Finding	Finding & error^[11]	--
Relation with the Central Government: Satisfaction rate^[12]	44%	41%	32%^[13]	37%^[13]	44+/-4%	+7%^[13]
Relation with the Central Government: Dissatisfaction rate^[12]	24%	27%	34%^[13]	28%^[13]	25+/-3%	-3%
Net satisfaction rate	20%	14%	-2%^[13]	9%^[13]	19+/-6%	+10%^[13]
Mean value^[12]	3.2+/-0.1 (Base=522)	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=477)	2.9+/-0.1^[13] (Base=609)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=559)	3.2+/-0.1 (Base=600)	+0.2^[13]
Maintaining economic prosperity: Satisfaction rate^[12]	40%^[13]	27%^[13]	31%	35%	36+/-4%	+1%
Maintaining economic prosperity: Dissatisfaction rate^[12]	34%	45%^[13]	37%^[13]	33%	33+/-4%	--
Net satisfaction rate	6%	-18%	-6%^[13]	2%^[13]	3+/-7%	+1%
Mean value^[12]	3.0+/-0.1^[13] (Base=602)	2.7+/-0.1^[13] (Base=519)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=540)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=610)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=603)	+0.1
Improving people's livelihood: Satisfaction rate^[12]	19%	14%^[13]	26%^[13]	32%^[13]	27+/-4%	-5%^[13]
Improving people's livelihood: Dissatisfaction rate^[12]	59%	62%	44%^[13]	39%^[13]	42+/-4%	+3%
Net satisfaction rate	-40%	-48%	-18%^[13]	-7%^[13]	-15+/-7%^[15]	-8%^[13]
Mean value^[12]	2.4+/-0.1 (Base=632)	2.2+/-0.1^[13] (Base=533)	2.7+/-0.1^[13] (Base=583)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=634)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=589)	-0.1
Protecting human rights and freedom: Satisfaction rate^[12]	41%^[13]	35%^[13]	29%^[13]	35%^[13]	28+/-3%	-7%^[13]
Protecting human rights and freedom: Dissatisfaction rate^[12]	33%^[13]	37%	44%^[13]	36%^[13]	43+/-4%	+7%^[13]
Net satisfaction rate	+8%	-2%	-15%^[13]	-1%^[13]	-15+/-6%^[15]	-14%^[13]
Mean value^[12]	3.0+/-0.1^[13] (Base=538)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=495)	2.7+/-0.1^[13] (Base=588)	2.9+/-0.1^[13] (Base=590)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=646)	-0.2^[13]
Pace of democratic development: Satisfaction rate^[12]	25%	26%	22%^[13]	21%	22+/-3%	+1%
Pace of democratic development: Dissatisfaction rate^[12]	49%	47%	53%^[13]	45%^[13]	50+/-4%	+5%^[13]
Net satisfaction rate	-24%	-21%	-31%^[13]	-24%^[13]	-28+/-6%	-4%
Mean value^[12]	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=656)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=499)	2.4+/-0.1^[13] (Base=536)	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=587)	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=604)	--

[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[13] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[14] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity and SARG overall performance. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[15] In one decimal place, the respective net satisfaction rates of improving people's livelihood as well as protecting human rights and freedom are negative 14.8 and negative 15.5 percentage points. Thus, they are ranked third and forth respectively.

Of the 5 specific policy areas, people were most satisfied with the government's handling of its relation with the Central Government, with a net satisfaction rate of positive 19 percentage points. The government’s performance in maintaining economic prosperity followed, attaining a net satisfaction rate of positive 3 percentage points. Both the government’s performance in improving people's livelihood as well as protecting human rights and freedom attained a net satisfaction rate of negative 15 percentage points. Finally, the net satisfaction rate of the government's performance in developing democracy stands at negative 28 percentage points. The mean scores of these 5 specific areas are 3.2, 3.0, 2.7, 2.7 and 2.5 respectively, meaning close to “half-half” in general.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. Herewith further analysis of the support rate of Leung Chun-ying as Chief Executive and the satisfaction rate of SARG performance by respondents' age:

Date of survey: 21-27/3/2013		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall sample
Support / Oppose Leung Chun-ying as CE^[16]	Support	21+/-6% (39)	30+/-5% (113)	39+/-5% (165)	32+/-3% (317)
	Oppose	69+/-7% (128)	52+/-5% (196)	42+/-5% (178)	51+/-3% (501)
	Don’t know / Hard to say	9+/-4% (17)	19+/-4% (70)	20+/-4% (84)	17+/-2% (172)
	Total	100% (184)	100% (379)	100% (426)	100% (989)

[16] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Date of survey: 21-27/3/2013		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall sample
Satisfaction / dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[17]	Satisfied	18+/-7% (22)	21+/-5% (56)	39+/-6% (108)	28+/-3% (185)
	Half-half	36+/-9% (42)	40+/-6% (108)	33+/-6% (92)	36+/-4% (241)
	Dissatisfied	45+/-9% (53)	37+/-6% (101)	26+/-5% (72)	34+/-4% (225)
	Don’t know / Hard to say	1+/-1% (1)	2+/-2% (5)	1+/-1% (4)	1+/-1% (10)
	Total	100% (117)	100% (269)	100% (275)	100% (661)
	Mean value	2.6+/-0.2 (116)	2.7+/-0.1 (264)	3.1+/-0.1 (271)	2.9+/-0.1 (651)

[17] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 18 to 28 December, 2012 while this survey was conducted from 21 to 27 March, 2013. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

25/3/13	The top court rules that foreign domestic helpers does not have the right to apply for permanent residency in Hong Kong.
24/3/13	The central government commits to achieve universal suffrage in Hong Kong by 2017.
18/3/13	President Xi Jinping meets with Chief Executive CY Leung and Macau Chief Executive Fernando Chui in Beijing.
14/3/13	Xi Jinping is formally elected as China's president.
28/2/13	The Development Bureau announces abolishing land sales by the Application Mechanism.
27/2/13	The Financial Secretary John Tsang announces the 2013-14 Budget.
22/2/13	The Government announces new measures to head off a property bubble.
19/2/13	The Government approves the Kowloon Motor Bus Company's application to increase fares by 4.9 percent.
8/2/13	Government consults three options on toll increase to bypass traffic in tunnels.
7/2/13	Chief Executive CY Leung demands the retraction of HKEJ's article which he claims accuses him of having links with triads.
1/2/13	Government announces the measures to ensure infant formula supply.
16/1/13	The Chief Executive CY Leung delivered 2013 Policy Address.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed, “Our latest survey shows that the support rating of CE CY Leung has recovered to more than 50 marks, but his approval rate is still low, with a net popularity of negative 19 percentage points. As for the SAR Government, its popularity has not changed much over the past month. Satisfaction rate remains unchanged, while dissatisfaction rate goes down by 4 percentage points, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 6 percentage points. Indepth analysis shows that those aged between 18 and 29 are most critical of CY Leung as CE, and most dissatisfied with the performance of the SAR Government. As for the five specific policy areas, in terms of net satisfaction rate, only relations with the Central Government and maintaining economic prosperity have registered positive values at positive 19 and positive 3 percentage points. The other three items all registered negative values: improving people's livelihood at negative 15 percentage points, protection of human rights and freedom at negative 15 percentage points, and developing democracy at negative 28 percentage points. Compared to three months ago, the net satisfaction of relations with the Central Government has registered significant improvement, while protection of human rights and freedom, and improving people's livelihood have registered significant drops. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’.”

Future Release (Tentative)

April 9, 2013 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Ratings of top 10 cross-strait political figures