HKU POP releases the latest trust and confidence indicatorsBack

Press Release on March 26, 2013

Special Announcement

"PopVote Civil Referendum Project" kicks off again and calls for public donations

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong and Centre for Social Policy Studies at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University jointly held a press conference some time ago to introduce the future development of the "PopVote Civil Referendum Project", as well as to invite donations of HKD800,000 from public to construct and enhance the e-Voting system. The general public can log onto the "Donate Now" page of the "PopVote" website (http://popvote.hk) and leave their contact information if they wish to make a donation.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,018 Hong Kong people between 19 and 21 March 2013 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey conducted in March during the change of Chinese central leadership shows that Hong Kong people's trust in the local government and their confidence in the future of Hong Kong and China have not changed much compared to three months ago. Their net trust in the Central and Taiwan Governments, however, have somewhat improved, to positive 5 and negative 2 percentage points respectively. People's net trust in the HKSAR Government now stands at positive 18 percentage points, their confidence in the future of Hong Kong, China and 'one country, two systems' have all remained positive, with net values of positive 25, 47 and 21 percentage points respectively. Further analysis shows people's trust in the local and central governments increases with age. How the new term of Chinese leadership will affect the local public sentiment is yet to be seen. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while that of net values needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 67%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the survey is 1,018 successful interviews, not 1,018 x 67.3% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level".
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey, and rounding procedures in collating the figures, when quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest findings on people's trust in the HKSAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan governments, and their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems". As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2012 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
19-21/3/2013	1,018	67.3%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent popularity figures of SAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan governments and people's confidence in the future as well as "one country, two systems" are summarized below:

Date of survey	9-11/3/2012	4-12/6/2012	11-14/9/2012	5-13/12/2012	19-21/3/2013	Latest Change
Total sample size^[7]	1,022	1,003	1,036	1,030	1,018	--
Overall response rate	63.6%	63.4%	63.1%	66.7%	67.3%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error ^[8]	--
Trust in HKSAR Government^[9]	36%	35%	34%	45%^[10]	44+/-4%	-1%
Distrust in HKSAR Government^[9]	36%	32%	35%	27%^[10]	26+/-3%	-1%
Net trust	--	3%	-1%	18%^[10]	18+/-6%	--
Mean value^[9]	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=580)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=537)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=543)	3.1+/-0.1^[10] (Base=632)	3.2+/-0.1 (Base=642)	+0.1
Trust in Beijing Government^[9]	39%^[10]	32%^[10]	26%^[10]	33%^[10]	37+/-4%	+4%
Distrust in Beijing Government^[9]	34%	37%	40%	34%^[10]	32+/-4%	-2%
Net trust	5%	-5%	-14%^[10]	-1%^[10]	5+/-7%	+6%
Mean value^[9]	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=529)	2.8+/-0.1^[10] (Base=515)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=536)	2.9+/-0.1^[10] (Base=564)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=598)	+0.1
Trust in Taiwan Government^[9]	31%^[10]	24%^[10]	21%	19%	21+/-3%	+2%
Distrust in Taiwan Government^[9]	28%	29%	25%	27%	23+/-3%	-4%^[10]
Net trust	3%	-5%	-4%	-8%	-2+/-5%	+6%^[10]
Mean value^[9]	3.0+/-0.1^[10] (Base=410)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=447)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=424)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=484)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=440)	+0.1
Confidence in HK's future	58%	53%^[10]	50%	58%^[10]	57+/-4%	-1%
No-confidence in HK's future	35%	32%	38%^[10]	33%^[10]	32+/-4%	-1%
Net confidence	23%	21%	12%	25%^[10]	25+/-7%	--
Confidence in China's future	79%^[10]	67%^[10]	66%	71%^[10]	68+/-4%	-3%
No-confidence in China's future	15%^[10]	23%^[10]	24%	20%^[10]	21+/-3%	+1%
Net confidence	64%	44%	42%	51%^[10]	47+/-6%	-4%
Confidence in "one country, two systems"	55%	51%	46%^[10]	54%^[10]	56+/-4%	+2%
No-confidence in "one country, two systems"	39%	37%	44%^[10]	38%^[10]	35+/-4%	-3%
Net confidence	16%	14%	2%^[10]	16%^[10]	21+/-7%	+5%

[7] The frequency of this series of questions is different for different questions. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from March 2011, these questions only use sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sub-sample sizes of the surveys range from 617 to 677, and the increased sampling errors have already been reflected in the figures tabulated.
[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Latest survey revealed that 44% of the respondents trusted the HKSAR Government, 37% trusted the Beijing Central Government, and 21% trusted the Taiwan Government. The mean scores of these trust indicators are 3.2, 3.0 and 2.9 respectively, meaning close to "half-half" in general. On the other hand, 57% of the respondents had confidence in Hong Kong's future and 68% had confidence in China's future, while 56% of the respondents were confident in "one country, two systems".

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of respondents' trust in HKSAR Government and Beijing Central Government by age:

Date of survey：19-21/3/13		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall Sample
Percentage of trust/distrust in HKSAR Government^[11]	Trust	34+/-8% (44)	42+/-6% (103)	52+/-6% (143)	45+/-4% (290)
	Half-half	30+/-8% (40)	27+/-6% (67)	26+/-5% (71)	27+/-3% (178)
	Distrust	35+/-8% (46)	28+/-6% (69)	18+/-5% (50)	25+/-3% (165)
	Don't know/ hard to say	1+/-1% (1)	3+/-2% (7)	3+/-2% (10)	3+/-1% (18)
	Total	100% (131)	100% (246)	100% (274)	100% (651)
	Mean value	2.9+/-0.2 (Base=130)	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=239)	3.4+/-0.1 (Base=264)	3.2+/-0.1 (Base=633)

[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Date of survey：19-21/3/13		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall Sample
Percentage of trust/distrust in Beijing Central Government^[12]	Trust	16+/-7% (19)	30+/-6% (68)	50+/-6% (145)	37+/-4% (232)
	Half-half	27+/-8% (31)	30+/-6% (68)	20+/-5% (59)	25+/-3% (158)
	Distrust	51+/-9% (59)	35+/-6% (79)	23+/-5% (67)	32+/-4% (204)
	Don't know/ hard to say	5+/-4% (6)	4+/-3% (9)	7+/-3% (21)	6+/-2% (36)
	Total	100% (115)	100% (224)	100% (291)	100% (630)
	Mean value	2.4+/-0.2 (Base=109)	2.9+/-0.2 (Base=215)	3.4+/-0.2 (Base=270)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=594)

[12] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, some items within the previous survey were conducted from December 5 to 13, 2012 while this survey was conducted from March 19 to 21, 2013. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

18/3/13	President Xi Jinping meets with Chief Executive CY Leung and Macau Chief Executive Fernando Chui in Beijing.
15/3/13	Li Keqiang is formally elected as China's Premier.
14/3/13	Xi Jinping is formally elected as China's President.
27/2/13	The Financial Secretary John Tsang announces the 2013-14 Budget.
26/2/13	In Egypt Hot-air balloon explosion kills 19 tourists.
14/2/13	Travel agency abandons mainland tourists to stay on the coach overnight.
7/2/13	Chief Executive CY Leung demands the retraction of HKEJ's article which he claims accuses him of having links with triads.
1/2/13	Government announces the measures to ensure infant formula supply.
16/1/13	The Chief Executive CY Leung delivered 2013 Policy Address.
10/1/13	The new director of the Liaison Office Zhang Xiaoming explains the office's role.
9/1/13	The Legislative Council vetoes the motion to impeach Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying.
21/12/12	Chinese President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao affirm the work of Chief Executive CY Leung.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our latest survey conducted in March during the change of Chinese central leadership shows that Hong Kong people's trust in the local government and their confidence in the future of Hong Kong and China have not changed much compared to three months ago. Their net trust in the Central and Taiwan Governments, however, have somewhat improved, to positive 5 and negative 2 percentage points respectively. People's net trust in the HKSAR Government now stands at positive 18 percentage points, their confidence in the future of Hong Kong, China and 'one country, two systems' have all remained positive, with net values of positive 25, 47 and 21 percentage points respectively. Further analysis shows people's trust in the local and central governments increases with age. How the new term of Chinese leadership will affect the local public sentiment is yet to be seen. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, readers are welcome to make their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'."

Future Release (Tentative)

April 2, 2013 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and HKSAR Government