HKU POP releases the latest survey on Taiwan issuesBack

“PopVote Civil Referendum Project” kicks off again and calls for public donations

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong and Centre for Social Policy Studies at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University jointly held a press conference some time ago to introduce the future development of the “PopVote Civil Referendum Project”, as well as to invite donations of HKD800,000 from public to construct and enhance the e-Voting system. The general public can log onto the “Donate Now” page of the “PopVote” website (http://popvote.hk) and leave their contact information if they wish to make a donation.

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest findings on various Taiwan issues. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2012 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest surveys:

Latest people’s views towards various Taiwan issues are summarized below:

[7] Starting from March 2011, these questions only use sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sub-sample sizes of the surveys range from 625 to 693, and the increased sampling errors have already been reflected in the figures tabulated. Since 2012, the frequency of surveys has reduced from once every 3 months to half-yearly.
[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7%" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Latest survey revealed that 60% of Hong Kong people interviewed opposed the independence of Taiwan whereas 25% showed support. As for the applicability of “one country, two systems” to Taiwan, 39% gave a positive view while 44% gave a negative answer. 37% were confident in the ultimate reunification across the strait whilst 46% expressed no confidence. 48% supported the rejoining the United Nations of Taiwan while 29% opposed.

[10] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

[12] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from August 21 to 29, 2012 while this survey was conducted from March 5 to 14, 2013. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “Our latest survey shows that Hong Kong people’s opposition to the independence of Taiwan remains high at 60%, with a net opposition rate of 35 percentage points. People’s judgment that ‘one country, two systems’ should be applicable to Taiwan continues to fall back to 39%, after going up to 49% one year ago. Its net confidence goes down from positive 3 percentage points to negative 5 percentage points. Besides, people’s confidence in reunification across the strait has gone down slightly over the past six months, now with a net confidence of negative 9 percentage points. It is worth noting that the percentage of those supporting Taiwan rejoining the UN has gone up significantly as compared to 6 months ago, now with a net support of 19 percentage points. This shows that although Hong Kong people object to the independence of Taiwan, they are willing to see Taiwan enjoys greater international space. Further analysis shows that older people are more opposed to Taiwan’s independence, and are more confident of cross-strait reunification, while those of age 30-49 are more likely to disagree that ‘one country, two systems’ is applicable to Taiwan. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, readers are welcome to make their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’.”

• March 21, 2013 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: Budget second follow-up survey

• March 26, 2013 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Latest trust and confidence indicators