HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officialsBack


Press Release on March 12, 2013

| Special Announcement | Abstract | Latest Figures |Opinion Daily |Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Chief Executive/Popularity of Principal Officials) |


Special Announcement

“PopVote Civil Referendum Project” kicks off again and calls for public donations

 

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong and Centre for Social Policy Studies at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University jointly held a press conference some time ago to introduce the future development of the “PopVote Civil Referendum Project”, as well as to invite donations of HKD800,000 from public to construct and enhance the e-Voting system. The general public can log onto the "Donate Now" page of the "PopVote" website (http://popvote.hk) and leave their contact information if they wish to make a donation.


 

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,023 Hong Kong people between February 27 to March 6, 2013 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our survey shows that overall popularity of CE CY Leung has not changed much over the past two weeks. His latest support rating stands at 48.6 marks, approval rate at 33%, disapproval rate at 49%, giving a net popularity of negative 16 percentage points. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 60.9 marks, her approval rate 60%, disapproval rate 7%, and net popularity positive 53 percentage points. About one week after the Budget is announced, the popularity of FS John Tsang has dropped significantly. His latest support rating is 52.1 marks, approval rate 39%, disapproval rate 20%, narrowing the net approval rate to positive 19 percentage points, generally back to the low level registered last April. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 49.3 marks, approval rate 26%, disapproval rate 16%, giving a net popularity of positive 10 percentage points. Carrie Lam remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 8 of the 12 Directors have gone up and 4 have gone down. Among them, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, Secretary for Development Paul Chan, Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man and Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing registered significant changes in net approval rates, down by 11 and 9 percentage points and up by 9, 9 and 8 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Paul Chan and Eddie Ng registered negative popularity, at negative 20 and 21 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director. According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Carrie Lam, Matthew Cheung and Lai Tung-kwok now fall under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Ceajer Chan, Anthony Cheung, Wong Kam-sing, John Tsang, Tsang Tak-sing, CY Leung, Eddie Ng and Paul Chan can be labeled as “mediocre”, that of Gregory So, Raymond Tam, Rimsky Yuen and Paul Tang can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. No one falls into the category of “depressing” performer and that of “disastrous”. The maximum sampling errors of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net approval rates need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 65%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,023 successful interviews, not 1,023 x 65.5% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages of each survey is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net approval rates needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.9, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level".
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey, and rounding procedures in collating the figures, when quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

 


Latest Figures

POP today releases the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and various Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-year 2012. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

 

Date of survey

Overall sample size

Response rate

Maximum sampling error of percentages[6]

27/2-6/3/2013

1,023

65.5%

+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings and net approval rates are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

 

 

As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sampling errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:

 

                   

Sample size
(total sample or sub-sample)

Sampling error of percentages[7]
(maximum values)

Sample size
(total sample or sub-sample)

Sampling error of percentages[7]
(maximum values)

1,300

+/- 2.8 %

1,350

+/- 2.7 %

1,200

+/- 2.9 %

1,250

+/- 2.8 %

1,100

+/- 3.0 %

1,150

+/- 3.0 %

1,000

+/- 3.2 %

1,050

+/- 3.1 %

900

+/- 3.3 %

950

+/- 3.2 %

800

+/- 3.5 %

850

+/- 3.4 %

700

+/- 3.8 %

750

+/- 3.7 %

600

+/- 4.1 %

650

+/- 3.9 %

500

+/- 4.5 %

550

+/- 4.3 %

400

+/- 5.0 %

450

+/- 4.7 %

[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.

 

Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung are summarized as follows:


Date of survey

2-9/1/13

16/1/13[10]

18-24/1/13

1-6/2/13

18-21/2/13

27/2-6/3/13

Latest change

Sample base

1,010

1,021

1,024

1,005

1,027

1,023

--

Overall response rate

67.7%

68.7%

66.3%

64.6%

65.5%

65.5%

--

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding and error[8]

--

Rating of CE CY Leung

48.9

52.2[9]

48.1

46.3[9]

48.0 [9]

48.6+/-1.4

+0.6

Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung

31%

35%[9]

34%

31%

31%

33+/-3%

+2%

Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung

51%[9]

46%[9]

48%

53%[9]

51%

49+/-3%

-2%

Net approval rate

-20%[9]

-11%[9]

-14%

-22%[9]

-20%

-16+/-6%

+4%

[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.4, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[10] This survey was the instant survey after the Policy Address and only asked rating of CE as well as his vote of confidence.


Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

 

Date of survey

1-4/12/12

2-9/1/13

1-6/2/13

27/2/13[11]

27/2-6/3/13

Latest change [11]

Sample base[11]

619-654

632-665

592-662

1,010

615-649

--

Overall response rate

66.2%

67.7%

64.6%

67.3%

65.5%

--

Latest finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding & error [12]

--

Rating of CS Carrie Lam

63.2

63.4

60.6[13]

--

60.9+/-1.5

+0.3

Vote of confidence in CS Carrie Lam

62%

63%

57%[13]

--

60+/-4%

+3%

Vote of no confidence in CS Carrie Lam

9%[13]

6%[13]

9%[13]

--

7+/-2%

-2%

Net approval rate

53%

57%

48%[13]

--

53+/-5%

+5%

Rating of FS John Tsang

58.6

57.7

57.8

56.6

52.1+/-1.6

-4.5[13]

Vote of confidence in FS John Tsang

56%

54%

54%

48%

39+/-4%

-9%[13]

Vote of no confidence in FS John Tsang

12%

13%

8%[13]

12%

20+/-3%

+8%[13]

Net approval rate

44%

41%

46%

36%

19+/-6%

-17%[13]

Rating of SJ Rimsky Yuen

53.1

50.3[13]

47.8[13]

--

49.3+/-1.9

+1.5

Vote of confidence in SJ Rimsky Yuen

32%

28%

24%[13]

--

26+/-4%

+2%

Vote of no confidence in SJ Rimsky Yuen

11%

17%[13]

18%

--

16+/-3%

-2%

Net approval rate

21%

11%[13]

6%

--

10+/-5%

+4%

[11] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies. The survey conducted on 27/2/2013 was the instant survey after the Budget Speech and only asked rating of FS as well as his vote of confidence.
[12] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.9, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[13] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

 

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates:

 

Date of survey

2-9/1/13

1-6/2/13

27/2-6/3/13

Latest change

Sample base [14]

619-682

564-657

570-692

--

Overall response rate

67.7%

64.6%

65.5%

--

Sample base for each question/ Percentage of answer

Base

%

Base

%

Base

% & error [15]

--

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man

676

80%[16]

643

75%[16]

601

80+/-3%

+5%[16]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man

676

4%

643

7%[16]

601

3+/-1%

-4%[16]

Net approval rate

--

76%

--

68%[16]

--

77+/-4%

+9%[16]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung

666

56%[16]

606

53%

645

57+/-4%

+4%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung

666

11%

606

10%

645

12+/-3%

+2%

Net approval rate

--

45%[16]

--

43%

--

45+/-6%

+2%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok

652

51%[16]

590

52%

670

55+/-4%

+3%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok

652

10%

590

10%

670

11+/-2%

+1%

Net approval rate

--

41%[16]

--

42%

--

44+/-5%

+2%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan

642

44%

604

43%

685

48+/-4%

+5%[16]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan

642

7%

604

6%

685

9+/-2%

+3%

Net approval rate

--

37%

--

37%

--

39+/-5%

+2%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing

673

41%[16]

657

37%

692

40+/-4%

+3%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing

673

13%

657

15%

692

10+/-2%

-5%[16]

Net approval rate

--

28%[16]

--

22%[16]

--

30+/-5%

+8%[16]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung

619

47%

599

42%[16]

611

44+/-4%

+2%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung

619

12%

599

15%

611

16+/-3%

+1%

Net approval rate

--

35%

--

27%[16]

--

28+/-6%

+1%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang

627

24%

640

18%[16]

593

21+/-3%

+3%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang

627

8%

640

8%

593

9+/-2%

+1%

Net approval rate

--

16%[17]

--

10%[16]

--

12+/-4%

+2%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam

666

31%

600

31%

656

26+/-4%

-5%[16]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam

666

15%

600

11%[16]

656

17+/-3%

+6%[16]

Net approval rate

--

16%[17]

--

20%

--

9+/-5%[18]

-11%[16]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing

663

36%[16]

610

36%

570

35+/-4%

-1%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing

663

27%[16]

610

18%[16]

570

26+/-4%

+8%[16]

Net approval rate

--

9%[16]

--

18%[16]

--

9+/-7%[18]

-9%[16]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So

654

27%

589

25%

644

27+/-4%

+2%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So

654

19%

589

16%

644

20+/-3%

+4%[16]

Net approval rate

--

8%

--

9%

--

7+/-6%

-2%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Paul Chan

682

19%

564

19%

582

23+/-3%

+4%[16]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Paul Chan

682

48%

564

48%

582

43+/-4%

-5%[16]

Net approval rate

--

-29%

--

-29%

--

-20+/-7%

+9%[16]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Eddie Ng

657

23%

623

24%

621

23+/-3%

-1%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Eddie Ng

657

48%

623

43%[16]

621

44+/-4%

+1%

Net approval rate

--

-25%

--

-19%

--

-21+/-6%

-2%

[14] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[15] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[16] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[17] In one decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang and Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam are 15.8 and 15.5 percentage points. Thus, they are ranked seventh and eighth respectively.
[18] In one decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam and Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing are 9.8 and 8.6 percentage points. Thus, they are ranked eighth and ninth respectively.

 

The latest survey showed that, CE CY Leung scored 48.6 marks, and 33% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 16 percentage points. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Carrie Lam, FS John Tsang and SJ Rimsky Yuen were 60.9, 52.1 and 49.3 marks, and 60%, 39% and 26% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. Their net approval rates are positive 53, 19 and 10 percentage points respectively.

 

As for the Directors of Bureaux, according to the net approval rates, results revealed that the top position goes to Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man, attaining positive 77 percentage points. The 2nd to 4th places belong to Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung, Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan with net approval rates positive 45, positive 44 and positive 39 percentage points respectively. Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung, Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So, Secretary for Development Paul Chan and Secretary for Education Eddie Ng ranked 5th to 12th, their corresponding net approval rates are positive 30, positive 28, positive 12, positive 9, positive 9, positive 7, negative 20 and negative 21 percentage points. In other words, only Ko Wing-man scored net approval rate of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux.

 


Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

 

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 1 to 6 February, 2013 while this survey was conducted from 27 February to 6 March, 2013. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures

 

1/3/13

Lift accident in King's Tower on King's Road at North Point.

28/2/13

The Development Bureau announces abolishing land sales by the Application Mechanism.

27/2/13

The Financial Secretary John Tsang announces the 2013-14 Budget.

26/2/13

Hot-air balloon explosion kills 19 tourists in Egypt.

22/2/13

The Government announces new measures to head off a property bubble.

19/2/13

The Government approves the Kowloon Motor Bus Company's application to increase fares by 4.9 percent.

14/2/13

Travel agency abandons mainland tourists to stay on the coach overnight.

8/2/13

Government consults three options on toll increase to bypass traffic in tunnels.

7/2/13

Chief Executive CY Leung demands the retraction of HKEJ's article which he claims accuses him of having links with triads.

1/2/13

Government announces the measures to ensure infant formula supply.



Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung.

 

Our latest survey shows that overall popularity of CE CY Leung has not changed much over the past two weeks. His latest support rating stands at 48.6 marks, approval rate at 33%, disapproval rate at 49%, giving a net popularity of negative 16 percentage points.

 

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 60.9 marks, her approval rate 60%, disapproval rate 7%, and net popularity positive 53 percentage points. About one week after the Budget is announced, the popularity of FS John Tsang has dropped significantly. His latest support rating is 52.1 marks, approval rate 39%, disapproval rate 20%, narrowing the net approval rate to positive 19 percentage points, generally back to the low level registered last April. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 49.3 marks, approval rate 26%, disapproval rate 16%, giving a net popularity of positive 10 percentage points. Carrie Lam remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department.

 

As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 8 of the 12 Directors have gone up and 4 have gone down. Among them, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, Secretary for Development Paul Chan, Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man and Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing registered significant changes in net approval rates, down by 11 and 9 percentage points and up by 9, 9 and 8 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Paul Chan and Eddie Ng registered negative popularity, at negative 20 and 21 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director.

 

According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Carrie Lam, Matthew Cheung and Lai Tung-kwok now fall under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Ceajer Chan, Anthony Cheung, Wong Kam-sing, John Tsang, Tsang Tak-sing, CY Leung, Eddie Ng and Paul Chan can be labeled as “mediocre”, that of Gregory So, Raymond Tam, Rimsky Yuen and Paul Tang can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. No one falls into the category of “depressing” performer and that of “disastrous”.

 

The following table summarizes the grading of CE and the principal officials for readers' easy reference:

 

"Ideal": those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man (80%)

 

"Successful": those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

CS Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (60%); Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (57%); Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok (55%)

 

"Mediocre": those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung (48%); Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung Bing-leung (44%); Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (40%); FS John Tsang Chun-wah (39%); Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing (35%); CE Leung Chun-ying (33%); Secretary for Education Eddie Ng Hak-kim (23%)[19]; Secretary for Development Paul Chan Mo-po (23%)[19]

 

"Inconspicuous": those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate

Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So Kam-leung (27%, 47%); Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam Chi-yuen (26%, 43%)[20]; SJ Rimsky Yuen Kwok-keung (26%, 42%)[20]; Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang Kwok-wai (21%, 29%)

 

"Depressing": those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

--

 

"Disastrous": those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

--

[19] In one decimal place, the respective approval rates of Secretary for Education Eddie Ng Hak-kim and Secretary for Development Paul Chan Mo-po are 22.9 and 22.5 percentage points.
[20] In one decimal place, the respective approval rates of Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam Chi-yuen and SJ Rimsky Yuen Kwok-keung are 26.3 and 26.2 percentage points.


Future Release (Tentative)

  • March 19, 2013 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Taiwan issues



| Special Announcement | Abstract | Latest Figures |Opinion Daily |Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Chief Executive/Popularity of Principal Officials) |