HKU POP releases the latest popularity figures of Executive CouncillorsBack

Press Release on February 5, 2013

Special Announcement

“PopVote Civil Referendum Project” kicks off again and calls for public donations

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong and Centre for Social Policy Studies at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University jointly held a press conference some time ago to introduce the future development of the “PopVote Civil Referendum Project”, as well as to invite donations of HKD800,000 from public to construct and enhance the e-Voting system. The general public can log onto the "Donate Now" page of the "PopVote" website (http://popvote.hk) and leave their contact information if they wish to make a donation.

Abstract

The latest ‘top 5 Executive Councillors’ survey conducted by POP shows that Regina Ip topped the list in both naming and rating surveys after she was appointed as a non-official Councillor in last October. Compared to three months ago, among the three Councillors who remain on the list, the only significant change in popularity rating goes to Fanny Law, whose rating goes up by 5.4 marks. In terms of absolute ratings, Regina Ip, Lam Woon-kwong and Fanny Law get more than 50 marks. In terms of relative rankings, Regina Ip occupies the first position, Lam Woon-kwong goes down one position to become the second, Fanny Law goes up two positions to rank the third. Starry Lee remains at the fourth place while Franklin Lam enters the list for the first time to occupy the fifth place, but with a low rating of only 42.3 marks. It should be noted, however, that our list of ‘top 5’ only includes non-official Councillors best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other Councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known Councillors, they do not appear on the list by design. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while that of rating figures is below +/-2.7 marks. The response rate of the rating survey is 64%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey on top 5 Executive Councillors is 1,020 successful interviews, not 1,020 x 65.8% response rate, while that of the second stage rating survey is 1,038 successful interviews, not 1,038 x 63.6% response rate.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.7 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of Executive Councillors. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2012 mid-year.

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages/ratings^[6]
15-21/1/2013 (First stage naming survey)	1,020	65.8%	+/-3%
28-31/1/2013 (Second stage rating survey)	1,038	63.6%	+/-2.7

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

The research design of our “Top 5 Executive Councillors” is similar to that of our “Top 10” series, it is explained in detail under “Survey Method” in our web page. The top Councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted from mid-January. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 5 non-official Executive Councillors whom they knew best. Latest findings of the naming survey are as follows:

Date of survey	13-20/10/11	3-6/1/12	24/4-2/5/12	19-27/9/12	15-21/1/13	Latest Change in Ranking
Sample base	1,040	1,007	1,034	1,005	1,020^[7]	--
Overall response rate	69.8%	65.1%	64.8%	68.0%	65.8%	--
Finding/ Error	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error ^[7]	--
Regina Ip	--^[15]	--^[15]	--^[15]	--^[15]	13+/-3%{1}	--
Lam Woon-kwong	--^[15]	--^[15]	--^[15]	9%{2}	10+/-2%{2}	--
Franklin Lam	--^[15]	--^[15]	--^[15]	1%{11}^[10]	6+/-2%{3}	↑8
Starry Lee	--^[15]	--^[15]	--^[15]	12%{1}	5+/-2%{4}	↓3
Fanny Law	--^[15]	--^[15]	--^[15]	7%{3}	4+/-2%{5}^[11]	↓2
Laura Cha	1%{8}	1%{9}	2%{6}	1%{9}^[10]	4+/-2%{6}^[11]	↑3
Bernard Chan	--^[15]	--^[15]	--^[15]	6%{4} ^[8]	3+/-1%{7}	↓3
Cheng Yiu-tong	7%{3}	7%{3}	9%{1}	4%{7}^[9]	2+/-1%{8}^[12]	↓1
Barry Cheung	--^[15]	--^[15]	--^[15]	2%{8}	2+/-1%{9}^[12]	↓1
Anna Wu	2%{7}	1%{7}	0%{10}	6%{5}^[8]	1+/-1%{10}^[13]	↓5
Cheung Chi-kong	--^[15]	--^[15]	--^[15]	1%{10}^[10]	1+/-1%{11}^[13]	↓1
Arthur Li	--^[15]	--^[15]	--^[15]	4%{6}^[9]	1+/-1%{12}^[13]	↓6
Andrew Liao	--^[15]	--^[15]	--^[15]	1%{12}^[10]	1+/-1%{13}^[13]	↓1
Cheung Hok-ming	--^[15]	--^[15]	--^[15]	1%{14}^[10]	<1+/-1%{14}^[14]	--
Jeffrey Lam	--^[15]	--^[15]	--^[15]	--^[15]	<1+/-1%{14}^[14]	--
Chow Chung-kong	--^[15]	--^[15]	--^[15]	1%{13}^[10]	<1+/-1%{16}^[14]	↓3
Wrong answer	33%	31%	18%	17%	14+/-3%	--
Don’t know/hard to say	51%	53%	72%	66%	66+/-4%	--

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level", meaning that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicates rankings in our naming survey. Councillors with the same recognition rate will be ranked according to the decimal place of the corresponding percentages. Please refer to the POP Site for detailed figures of the previous surveys. The error margin of previous surveys can also be found at the POP Site. The sub-sample size for this survey is 617.
[8] The percentages of respondents who could name Bernard Chan and Anna Wu were 6.0% and 5.9%, so Bernard Chan ranked the 4th, while Anna Wu was placed at the 5th rank.
[9] The percentages of respondents who could name Arthur Li and Cheng Yiu-tong were 4.0% and 3.7%, so Arthur Li ranked the 6th, while Cheng Yiu-tong was placed at the 7th rank.
[10] The percentages of respondents who could name Laura Cha, Cheung Chi-kong, Franklin Lam, Andrew Liao, Chow Chung-kong and Cheung Hok-ming were 1.45%, 1.3%, 0.92%, 0.87%, 0.7% and 0.6%. Hence Laura Cha ranked the 9th, Cheung Chi-kong ranked the 10th, Franklin Lam ranked the 11th, Andrew Liao ranked the 12th, Chow Chung-kong ranked the 13th while Cheung Hok-ming was placed at the 14th rank.
[11] The percentages of respondents who could name Fanny Law and Laura Cha were 3.9% and 3.6%, so Fanny Law ranked the 5th, while Laura Cha was placed at the 6th rank.
[12] The percentages of respondents who could name Cheng Yiu-tong and Barry Cheung were 2.4% and 2.0%, so Cheng Yiu-tong ranked the 8th, while Barry Cheung was placed at the 9th rank.
[13] The percentages of respondents who could name Anna Wu, Cheung Chi-kong, Arthur Li and Andrew Liao were 1.2%, 1.1%, 1.0% and 0.5%. Hence Anna Wu ranked the 10th, Cheung Chi-kong ranked the 11th, Arthur Li ranked the 12th while Andrew Liao was placed at the 13th rank.
[14] The percentages of respondents who could name Cheung Hok-ming, and Jeffrey Lam were both 0.21%, while that for Chow Chung-kong was 0.1%. Hence Cheung Hok-ming and Jeffrey Lam were both placed at the 14th rank, while Chow Chung-kong ranked the 16th.
[15] Not a non-official Executive Councillor during the survey period.

The naming survey conducted from mid-January showed that Regina Ip was named most frequently with a recognition rate of 13%. Lam Woon-kwong, Franklin Lam, Starry Lee and Fanny Law with recognition rates of 10%, 6%, 5%, and 4%, and ranked the 2nd to 5th. However, 14% made a wrong attempt at citing Executive Councillors (non-official) while 66% had no clue.

Those 6 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted in late January, respondents were asked to rate each short-listed Councillor in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 1 Councillor in terms of recognition rate was dropped; the remaining 5 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 5 Executive Councillors. Recent ratings of the top 5 members of Executive Council are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	25/10-2/11/11	9-14/1/12	3-10/5/12	28/9-5/10/12	28-31/1/13		Latest change
Sample base	550-660	525-612	630-686	565-676	622-691		--
Overall response rate	65.5%	67.3%	64.6%	66.3%	63.6%		--
Finding/ Recognition rate	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error ^[12]	Recognition rate	--
Regina Ip	--^[19]	--^[19]]	--^[19]	--^[19]	57.4{1}+/-1.7	90.8%	--
Lam Woon-kwong	--^[19]	--^[19]]	--^[19]	55.9{1}	56.8{2}+/-1.9	74.9%	+0.9
Fanny Law	--^[19]	--^[19]]	--^[19]	46.2{5}	51.6{3}+/-2.1	85.0%	+5.4^[18]
Starry Lee	--^[19]	--^[19]]	--^[19]	47.2{4}	49.5{4}+/-2.3	67.9%	+2.3
Franklin Lam	--^[19]	--^[19]]	--^[19]	--	42.3{5}+/-2.4	61.6%	--
Laura Cha	--	--	48.7 ^[17]	--	49.4+/-2.7^[17]	45.0%	--
Anna Wu	--	--	--	49.8{2}	--	--	--
Arthur Li	--^[19]]	--^[19]	--	49.3{3}	--	--	--
Bernard Chan	--^[19]	--^[19]]	--^[19]	57.8 ^[17]	--	--	--
Cheng Yiu-tong	44.0{3}	46.7{3}^[18]	45.6{3}	--	--	--	--

[16] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level", meaning that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.7 marks at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicates rankings. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[17] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 5 in either stage of survey are not available.
[18] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[19] Not a non-official Executive Councillor during the survey period.

The latest rating survey conducted in late January showed that Regina Ip was the most popularly supported non-official Executive Councillor, attaining 57.4 marks. The 2nd and 3rd ranks went to Lam Woon-kwong and Fanny Law with 56.8 and 51.6 marks respectively. The 4th and 5th ranks went to Starry Lee and Franklin Lam with 49.5 and 42.3 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by these top 5 non-official Executive Councillors was 51.5 marks. For this latest survey, Laura Cha obtained a support rating of 49.4 marks, but she was dropped due to her relatively low recognition rate. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past year are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	9-14/1/12	3-10/5/12		28/9-5/10/12	28-31/1/13	No.of times on top 5	Average rating ^[20]	Overall ranking ^[21]
Lam Woon-kwong	--^[22]		--^[22]	55.9	56.8	2	56.4	1
Ronald Arculli	53.6		51.3	--^[22]	--^[22]	2	52.5	2
Fanny Law	--^[22]		--^[22]	46.2	51.6	2	48.9	3
Starry Lee	--^[22]		--^[22]	47.2	49.5	2	48.3	4
Cheng Yiu-tong	46.7		45.6	--	--	2	46.2	5
Lau Kong-wah	44.9		44.9	--^[22]	--^[22]	2	44.9	6
Lau Wong-fat	35.6		34.6	--^[22]	--^[22]	2	35.1	7
Regina Ip	--^[22]		--^[22]	--^[22]	57.4	1	57.4	8
Anthony Cheung	--		52.4	--^[22]	--^[22]	1	52.4	9
Leong Che-hung	50.2		--	--^[22]	--^[22]	1	50.2	10
Anna Wu	--		--	49.8	--	1	49.8	11
Arthur Li	--^[22]		--^[22]	49.3	--	1	49.3	12
Franklin Lam	--^[22]		--^[22]	--	42.3	1	42.3	13

[20] “Average rating” is the average of all ratings obtained by Executive Councillors over the past 4 surveys.
[21] “Overall ranking” is first determined by their number of times on top 5, and then their average ratings.
[22] Not a non-official Executive Councillor during the survey period.

The overall rankings in the past year showed that seven non-official Executive Councillors have been on the list for two times. Lam Woon-kwong, Ronald Arculli, Fanny Law, Starry Lee, Cheng Yiu-tong, Lau Kong-wah and Lau Wong-fat ranked 1st to 7th place respectively and achieved average ratings of 56.4, 52.5, 48.9, 48.3, 46.2, 44.9 and 35.1 marks. Regina Ip, Anthony Cheung, Leong Che-hung, Anna Wu, Arthur Li and Franklin Lam have been on the list once with average ratings of 57.4, 52.4, 50.2, 49.8, 49.3 and 42.3 marks, ranked at the 8th to 13th places respectively.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from September 28 to October 5, 2012 while this survey was conducted from January 28 to 31, 2013. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

24/1/13	Liu Mengxiong accuses Leung Chun Ying of lying in the illegal structure issue.
16/1/13	The Chief Executive CY Leung delivered 2013 Policy Address.
9/1/13	The Legislative Council vetoes the motion to impeach Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying.
24/12/12	The target of Government is to provide housing land for producing 20,000 private residential flats.
13/12/12	Government suggests the Court of Final Appeal consider asking for a Beijing clarification on right of abode cases.
10/12/12	Chief Executive CY Leung apologizes for having illegal structure built in his home in the Legislative Council.
3/11/12	Executive Councillor Franklin Lam Fan-keung takes leave of absence.
26/10/12	Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah says he will take extraordinary measures under exceptional circumstances on property market.
17/10/12	Chief Executive CY Leung elaborates on his governing philosophy to the Legislative Council.
8/10/12	Chief Executive CY Leung announces Moral & National Education subject guidelines will be shelved.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “The latest ‘top 5 Executive Councillors’ survey shows that Regina Ip topped the list in both naming and rating surveys after she was appointed as a non-official Councillor in last October. Compared to three months ago, among the three Councillors who remain on the list, the only significant change in popularity rating goes to Fanny Law, whose rating goes up by 5.4 marks. In terms of absolute ratings, Regina Ip, Lam Woon-kwong and Fanny Law get more than 50 marks. In terms of relative rankings, Regina Ip occupies the first position, Lam Woon-kwong goes down one position to become the second, Fanny Law goes up two positions to rank the third. Starry Lee remains at the fourth place while Franklin Lam enters the list for the first time to occupy the fifth place, but with a low rating of only 42.3 marks. It should be noted, however, that our list of ‘top 5’ only includes non-official Councillors best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other Councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known Councillors, they do not appear on the list by design. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these popularity ratings, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in the ‘Opinion Daily’ of our POP Site.”

Future Release (Tentative)

February 14, 2013 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and Principal Officials