HKU POP releases the results of the Policy Address second follow-up surveyBack

“PopVote Civil Referendum Project” kicks off again and calls for public donations

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong and Centre for Social Policy Studies at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University jointly held a press conference some time ago to introduce the future development of the “PopVote Civil Referendum Project”, as well as to invite donations of HKD800,000 from public to construct and enhance the e-Voting system. The general public can log onto the "Donate Now" page of the "PopVote" website (http://popvote.hk) and leave their contact information if they wish to make a donation.

Since 1992, POP has been conducting Policy Address instant surveys every year. From 1998 onwards, we expanded our instant surveys to cover the Budget Talks. In general, such surveys would be repeated some time later to measure people's more matured reactions. In 2008, we further enhanced our survey design by splitting our Policy Address instant survey into two. In our instant survey, we measure people’s overall appraisal of the Policy Address, their rating of the Policy Address, their change in confidence towards Hong Kong's future, and CE’s popularity. One to two days later, we started to conduct our first follow-up survey, which mainly studies people’s reactions towards different government proposals, and any change in their satisfaction of the Policy Address. Our second follow-up survey would be conducted a short period later, to repeat our measurement of people’s reactions towards different government proposals, and any change in their satisfaction of the Policy Address. We believe this is a better way to study public opinion on these issues: measuring people's instant reaction first, and then repeat our measurement some time later to check people's more matured reaction. Our Policy Address’s instant and first follow-up surveys this year were released on January 17 and 22 respectively, while the findings of the second follow-up poll are released today.

The findings of the second follow-up survey of Policy Address released by POP SITE today have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2012. Herewith the contact information of various surveys:

As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sample errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sampling errors and sample size for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:

Results of the second follow-up survey of Policy Address, together with the instant and first follow-up surveys, for 2011 (Donald Tsang’s final Policy Address) and 2013 (CY Leung’s first Policy Address) are tabulated below:

Latest second follow-up survey revealed that 22% of the respondents were satisfied with the Policy Address and 45% were dissatisfied, giving net satisfaction of negative 23 percentage points. The mean score is 2.6, which is between "quite dissatisfied" and "half-half" in general. The average rating registered for the Policy Address was 43.8 marks. As for people's satisfaction with CY Leung's policy direction, 29% of the respondents showed satisfaction while 39% were not satisfied, giving net satisfaction of negative 10 percentage points. The mean score is 2.8, meaning close to “half-half”.

Results of people’s satisfaction with the Policy Address in previous similar surveys (follow-up survey of Policy Address in 1997, 1998 and 2000 – 2007 and second follow-up surveys of Policy Address in 1999, 2008 – 2013) are tabulated below:

[13] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
[14] Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
[15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Compared to similar surveys conducted after the handover, people’s satisfaction rate with CY Leung’s first Policy Address is lower than all those registered for Tsang’s six addresses, while it is still higher than all those registered for Tung's third to eighth addresses.

Other results of both first and second follow-up surveys of Policy Address 2013 are tabulated below:

Results showed that 48% thought the theme of the Policy Address “Seek Change Maintain Stability Serve the People with Pragmatism” concurred with the current needs of the society while 32% did not think so. Besides, 73% supported CY Leung’s views that home ownership by the middle class was crucial to social stability, the Government was therefore determined to uphold the principle of assisting grassroots families in moving into public housing and the middle-income families in buying their own homes while 16% opposed. Besides, 53% supported the abolishment of all DC appointed seats from 2016 onwards while 22% opposed. Regarding the lack of specific measure that provides instant benefits to the grassroots and middle class proposed in CY Leung’ Policy Address, 42% supported this practice while 39% opposed. As for the effect of setting poverty line to thoroughly investigate the causes of poverty proposed by CY Leung on tackling the poverty problems, 19% said the effect would be big while 56% said it would be small. As for the effect of the housing and land supply policies on tackling housing problems, 15% said the effect would be big while 58% said it would be small.

Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung.

According to our Policy Address instant survey, among respondents who had some knowledge of the first address of CY Leung, 36% said they were satisfied. However, in our first follow-up survey, the figure significantly dropped to 27%, while dissatisfaction rate increased from 24% to 39%. After another week, people’s satisfaction rate further drops by 5 percentage points to 22% while dissatisfaction rate continues to increase by 6 percentage points to 45%, sinking the net satisfaction rate to negative 23 percentage points. People’s net satisfaction with CY Leung’s policy direction now stands at negative 10 percentage points, representing a plunge of 13 percentage points from our first follow-up survey. People’s rating of the Policy Address now stands at 43.8 marks, significantly down by 4.4 marks as compared to that of the first follow-up survey. Moreover, people’s appraisal of various policy proposals has also turned negative, meaning that people’s response to CY Leung’s first Policy Address can be considered to have started high ended low. In other words, after many rounds of discussion, the positive effect of the address has vanished, and Leung’s administration may have to face the problems of a weak government again.

• February 5, 2013 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Ratings of top 5 Executive Councillors