HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and the GovernmentBack

Press Release on January 29, 2013

Special Announcement

“PopVote Civil Referendum Project” kicks off again and calls for public donations

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong and Centre for Social Policy Studies at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University jointly held a press conference some time ago to introduce the future development of the “PopVote Civil Referendum Project”, as well as to invite donations of HKD800,000 from public to construct and enhance the e-Voting system. The general public can log onto the "Donate Now" page of the "PopVote" website (http://popvote.hk) and leave their contact information if they wish to make a donation.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,024 Hong Kong people between 18 and 24 January 2013 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that after some discussions of the Policy Address, the popularity figures of CE CY Leung and the SAR Government have both dropped. The support rating of CY Leung drops significantly by 4.1 marks from the 52.2 marks registered in the evening of Policy Address to 48.1 marks, which is slightly lower than that before the Policy Address. In other words, the popularity effect of the Address has gone. CE’s net popularity now stands at negative 14 percentage points. For the SAR Government, compared to one month ago, its satisfaction rate also goes down slightly by 3 percentages points, while dissatisfaction rate significantly goes up by 7 percentage points, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 19 percentage points. Indepth analysis shows that those aged between 18 and 29 are most critical to CY Leung as CE, and most dissatisfied with the performance of the SAR Government. How public opinion would change after CE and his officials further explain their policies, and after CPPCC member Liu Mengxiong accused CY Leung of dishonesty, remains to be seen. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 66%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,024successful interviews, not 1,024 x 66.3% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure and net value needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.6 and that of all percentages not more than +/-4%, and net values not more than +/-7%, at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2012 mid-year.

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
18-24/1/2013	1,024	66.3%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	14-22/11/12	1-4/12/12	18-28/12/12	2-9/1/13	16/1/13^[10]	18-24/1/13	Latest change
Sample base	1,020	1,006	1,013	1,010	1,021	1,024	--
Overall response rate	64.2%	66.2%	65.7%	67.7%	68.7%	66.3%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[7]	--
Rating of CE CY Leung	52.3	49.2^[9]	49.1	48.9	52.2^[9]	48.1+/-1.6	-4.1^[9]
Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung	39%	37%	34%	31%	35%^[9]	34+/-3%	-1%
Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung	45%	49%^[9]	47%	51%^[9]	46%^[9]	48+/-3%	+2%
Net approval rate	-6%	-12%	-13%	-20%^[9]	-11%^[9]	-14+/-6%	-3%
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	25%	--	29%	--	--	26+/-3%	-3%
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	41%^[9]	--	38%	--	--	45+/-4%	+7%^[9]
Net satisfaction rate	-16%	--	-9%^[9]	--	--	-19+/-7%	-10%^[9]
Mean value^[8]	2.8+/-0.1^[9] (Base=599)	--	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=649)	--	--	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=618)	-0.2^[9]

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.6, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Starting from March 2011, this question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 634.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[10] This survey was the instant survey after the Policy Address and only asked rating of CE as well as his vote of confidence.

The latest survey showed that, CE Leung Chun-ying scored 48.1 marks, and 34% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 14 percentage points. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 26% were satisfied, whereas 45% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 19 percentage points. The mean score is 2.6, meaning close to “half-half”.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. Herewith further analysis of the support rate of Leung Chun-ying as Chief Executive and the satisfaction rate of SARG performance by respondents' age:

Date of survey: 18-24/1/2013		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall sample
Support / Oppose Leung Chun-ying as CE^[11]	Support	24+/-6% (46)	30+/-5% (117)	43+/-5% (184)	34+/-3% (347)
	Oppose	66+/-7% (126)	52+/-5% (204)	37+/-5% (158)	48+/-3% (488)
	Don’t know/ Hard to say	10+/-4% (19)	18+/-4% (69)	21+/-4% (90)	17+/-2% (177)
	Total	100% (191)	100% (389)	100% (431)	100% (1,011)

[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Date of survey: 18-24/1/2013		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall sample
Satisfaction / dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[12]	Satisfied	14+/-6% (17)	19+/-5% (48)	37+/-6% (96)	25+/-3% (161)
	Half-half	31+/-8% (36)	26+/-6% (64)	25+/-5% (66)	26+/-4% (166)
	Dissatisfied	55+/-9% (65)	52+/-6% (130)	35+/-6% (93)	46+/-4% (288)
	Don’t know / Hard to say	0+/-0% (0)	3+/-2% (7)	3+/-2% (9)	3+/-1% (16)
	Total	100% (118)	100% (249)	100% (262)	100% (630)
	Mean value	2.3+/-0.2 (Base=118)	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=242)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=254)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=614)

[12] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 18 to 28 December, 2012 while this survey was conducted from 18 to 24 January, 2013. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

24/1/13	Liu Mengxiong accuses Leung Chun Ying of lying in the illegal structure issue.
16/1/13	The Chief Executive CY Leung delivered 2013 Policy Address.
9/1/13	The Legislative Council vetoes the motion to impeach Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying.
30/12/12	A march in support of Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying.
24/12/12	The target of Government is to provide housing land for producing 20,000 private residential flats.
21/12/12	Chinese President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao affirms the work of Chief Executive CY Leung.
20/12/12	Vice-President Xi Jinping affirms the work of Chief Executive CY Leung and his team.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed, “Our latest survey shows that after some discussions of the Policy Address, the popularity figures of CE CY Leung and the SAR Government have both dropped. The support rating of CY Leung drops significantly by 4.1 marks from the 52.2 marks registered in the evening of Policy Address to 48.1 marks, which is slightly lower than that before the Policy Address. In other words, the popularity effect of the Address has gone. CE’s net popularity now stands at negative 14 percentage points. For the SAR Government, compared to one month ago, its satisfaction rate also goes down slightly by 3 percentages points, while dissatisfaction rate significantly goes up by 7 percentage points, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 19 percentage points. Indepth analysis shows that those aged between 18 and 29 are most critical to CY Leung as CE, and most dissatisfied with the performance of the SAR Government. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’. How public opinion would change after CE and his officials further explain their policies, and after CPPCC member Liu Mengxiong accused CY Leung of dishonesty, remains to be seen.”

Future Releases (Tentative)

January 31, 2013 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: Second follow-up survey of Policy Address
February 5, 2013 (Tuesday) 1 pm to 2 pm: Ratings of top 5 Executive Councillors