調查方法 Survey MethodBack


調查方法

民意研究計劃多年來不斷就公眾人物及組織進行評分調查，當中的十大立法會議員評分的調查方法如下：
 

 2017年7月起，十大立法會議員調查評分每四個月進行一次，每次分為兩個階段。在第一階段提名調查中，訪員會要求被訪者在沒有提示的情況下，被說出他們所認識的名字議員名稱，多少不拘。
 

 研究組會在這些未經提示下產生的名單中，篩選出最多被訪者提及的十二個名字，進入第二階段評分調查。
 

 在第二階段的評分調查，訪員會要求被訪者就入選的議員以零至一百分進行個別評分，提示為零分代表絕對不支持，一百分代表絕對支持，五十分為一半半。統計分析後，最不為人知的議員將再被剔除，只餘下十大議員。最後，若有議員的認知率不及50%，亦會再被剔除（或只留作參考）。議員的最後排名則以平均支持率計。
 

 民意研究組用這種方法得出的排名，會確保名列前矛者既為人識，亦受支持。排名愈後，則表示有關人士在支持度或認知度方面任缺其一，或兩大皆空。
 

 上述所有第一階段的提名調查及第二階段的評分調查皆屬電話問卷調查，由嚴格督導下的訪員進行訪問。
 

 所有調查的訪問對象皆為十八歲或以上之操粵語的香港市民。
 

 2014年1月中起，電話號碼抽樣方法是先從通訊事務管理局之香港電訊服務號碼計劃獲取已分配予電訊商的電話字頭，然後以隨機方式從中產生號碼。最後，按照電腦撥打及過往調查記錄，剔除無效號碼成為最終樣本。
 

 2017年7月起，民研計劃除了使用固網電話號碼進行抽樣調查外，亦加入手機號碼混合使用，固網及手機樣本比例為四比一。經過三個月的測試，民研計劃在2017年10月正式把混合樣本常規化，作為定期民意調查的統計方法。2018年4月開始，民研計劃再增加手機樣本的比例，令固網及手機樣本比例為二比一。有關數據已整合固網電話及手機號碼兩個部份。
 

 固網樣本中，抽取住戶成員的方法是由訪員在成功接觸目標住戶後，用「即將出生日期」的方法由當時在家的成員抽取其中一人進行訪問。



Survey Method

In the past many years, POP has been conducting popularity ratings for a variety of political figures and organizations, including members of the Top 10 Legislative Councillors. The research design of this exercise is explained as follows:

 
 

Since July 2017, the survey on ratings of top 10 Legislative Councillors is conducted once every four months, in two different phases. In the first stage, respondents were requested to nominate, unprompted, all legislators that they can think of.

 
 

POP would then select from this list of unprompted nominees the 12 most frequently cited names for the next stage survey.

 
 

During the second stage survey, respondents would be asked to rate each of the selected legislators using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the least well-known figures would be dropped. Only the ten most well-known legislators remain. Finally, any figure which fails to reach the 50% benchmark recognition rate would also be dropped (or retained only for reference). The list will then be sorted according to support ratings.

 
 

Using this method, the POP Team is able to screen out the most popular legislators both in terms of popular recognition and support. Those who failed to reach the top must have failed in either or both aspects.

 
 

All stage one naming surveys and stage two rating surveys mentioned are telephone surveys conducted by interviewers under close supervision.

 
 

Target population of these surveys are Cantonese speakers in Hong Kong of age 18 or above.

 
 

Starting from mid-January 2014, telephone numbers are randomly generated using known prefixes assigned to telecommunication services providers under the Numbering Plan provided by the Office of the Communications Authority (OFCA). Invalid numbers are then eliminated according to computer and manual dialing records to produce the final sample.

 
 

From July 2017, apart from sampling landline numbers to conduct opinion surveys, POP has also added mobile numbers to the sampling frame. After three months of testing, in October 2017, POP formalized the use of mixed samples as its standard for regular opinion surveys using a landline and mobile sample ratio of 4 to 1. Starting from April 2018, POP further increased the proportion of mobile sample, which the landline and mobile sample ratio became 2 to 1. The figures have already incorporated landline and mobile samples.

 
 

For landline samples, upon successful contact being made with a target household, one member of the household is selected among those present using the "next birthday" rule.