KU POP SITE releases the survey results on Macau people's opinion on the selection method of the Chief ExecutiveBack

Since 1992, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong has been conducting studies in Macau, in order to map its changing public sentiment. A total of 9 surveys have been completed in the past 10 years, with election exit polls and public opinion surveys being the main foci. All studies are conducted independently by the POP research team, unaffected by any government or sponsor.

After the handovers of Hong Kong and Macau, the public mood of the two societies have come closer and closer. In the middle of last year, POP and the Union For Construction Of Macau reached an agreement to embark on a "Joint Project on Regular Opinion Surveys in Macau", initially for one year, which aims at establishing in Macau a mechanism to conduct scientific opinion surveys, reinforcing the channels for collecting public opinion, fostering the development of opinion surveys in Macau, as well as providing scientific opinion data for comparative studies between Hong Kong and Macau.

The first three surveys of this joint project were conducted in August, October and December of last year respectively, and their results have also been released in September and October of 2003 as well as in February this year. Released today are the findings of the fourth survey of this joint project, which focuses on Macau people's opinion on the selection method of their Chief Executive. This survey was conducted between March 1 and 3, 2004, by random telephone surveys executed by interviewers, it successfully interviewed 776 Macau citizens of age 18 or above. Findings of the relevant parts are summarized in the following table:

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.

As shown by the survey results obtained in early March, around 65% of the respondents agreed Election Committee members returned by the social service, education, and professional sectors should be elected on a one-person-one-vote basis within that sector. Regarding the selection method for the candidates for the Election Committee on the whole, 24% thought it should best be elected by the persons-in-charge of the corporate bodies of these organizations. The proportions of respondents who opted for "election by more-candidates-than-seats method", "by consultation/consensus" and "election by one-seat-one-candidate method" were 19%, 17% and 7% correspondingly. As for the weight of the organization representatives, 39% believed the number of organization representatives who could exercise voting right should be increased. Finally, 71% said civil servants sitting in the Election Committee should not receive any extra pay.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, made the following comments on these findings: "Macau's handover took place two years' after that of Hong Kong, so the selection of the Chief Executive for the second session also came late. Judging from the performance and popularity of Edmund Ho Hau-wah, there is little doubt that there will not be a better choice. However, laying proper legislation for the selection of the Chief Executive is an important work for long-term constitutional development, and coping with people's demand is almost a must. Learning from Hong Kong's experience, the requirement of endorsement voting by the Election Committee, even when there is only one candidate for the post of Macau SAR Chief Executive, is definitely one step ahead of Hong Kong."

With respect to the findings obtained, Dr Fong Man-tat, representing the Union For Construction Of Macau, observed: "Professionals, teachers and social workers are the pillars of society ... (The Macau Government) may have to pay a higher cost in terms of the future stability and development, if it is not prepared to share some of its power with the middle class now." Dr Fong also suggested that in order to increase the representativeness of the Election Committee, "the bigger organizations should, out of their own initiative, offer some portion of their quotas to the smaller organizations ... in order to arrive at a consensus on the proportion of different representation in the Election Committee, which would facilitate the overall harmony of the Macau society."

Contact information and detailed figures of this survey have been published at the POP Site. Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the survey, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to <[email protected]> or <[email protected]>. We would answer them as soon as possible. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong.