第三輪立法會香港島選區補選滾動調查 2007Third round of Legislative Council by-election rolling survey result 2007Back

三天滾動調查 / 3-day Rolling Survey

調查日期 Date of survey : 31/10/2007-18/11/2007

[Q1] 假如聽日係立法會港島區補選，你會投以下邊一位候選人?
[Q1] If the Hong Kong Island Legislative Council by-election were to be held tomorrow, which candidate would you vote for?

日期 Date	總樣本人數 Total sample	葉劉淑儀 IP LAU Suk-yee Regina		李永健 LEE Wing-kin		陳方安生 CHAN FANG On-son Anson		蔣志偉 CHAING Tandon Lal		柳玉成 LAU Yuk-shing		蕭思江 SIU See-kong		凌尉雲 LING Wai-wan		何來 HO Loy		李慨俠 LI Koi-hop Philip		全部都唔選 None of the above		未決定/唔知/難講 Not decided yet/Don't know/Hard to say
日期 Date	總樣本人數 Total sample	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error
16-18/11/2007	688	30.8%	3.5%	*	-	51.8%	3.8%	*	-	*	-	*	-	*	-	1.2%	0.8%	不適用 N/A	不適用 N/A	4.4%	1.6%	10.8%	2.4%
15-17/11/2007	691	31.3%	3.5%	*	-	49.6%	3.8%	0.7%	0.7%	*	-	*	-	*	-	0.9%	0.7%	不適用 N/A	不適用 N/A	4.4%	1.6%	12.0%	2.5%
14-16/11/2007	691	32.3%	3.6%	*	-	46.0%	3.8%	0.7%	0.6%	*	-	*	-	*	-	*	-	不適用 N/A	不適用 N/A	5.7%	1.8%	13.9%	2.6%
13-15/11/2007	654	35.6%	3.7%	*	-	42.8%	3.9%	0.9%	0.7%	*	-	*	-	*	-	*	-	不適用 N/A	不適用 N/A	4.9%	1.7%	14.6%	2.8%
12-14/11/2007	621	37.3%	3.9%	*	-	42.1%	4.0%	0.7%	0.6%	*	-	*	-	0.5%	0.6%	0.8%	0.7%	不適用 N/A	不適用 N/A	5.4%	1.8%	12.9%	2.7%
11-13/11/2007	590	33.9%	3.9%	0.5%	0.6%	43.9%	4.1%	0.9%	0.8%	*	-	*	-	0.5%	0.6%	1.0%	0.8%	不適用 N/A	不適用 N/A	5.1%	1.8%	14.2%	2.9%
10-12/11/2007	587	29.6%	3.8%	*	-	45.9%	4.1%	0.9%	0.8%	*	-	*	-	*	-	1.6%	1.0%	不適用 N/A	不適用 N/A	6.2%	2.0%	15.1%	3.0%
09-11/11/2007	585	27.7%	3.7%	*	-	45.1%	4.1%	0.5%	0.6%	*	-	*	-	*	-	1.1%	0.8%	不適用 N/A	不適用 N/A	6.8%	2.1%	18.2%	3.2%
08-10/11/2007	587	31.3%	3.8%	*	-	41.6%	4.1%	0.5%	0.6%	*	-	*	-	*	-	1.2%	0.9%	不適用 N/A	不適用 N/A	7.0%	2.1%	17.8%	3.2%
07-09/11/2007	587	33.0%	3.9%	*	-	42.1%	4.1%	*	-	*	-	0.5%	0.6%	*	-	1.0%	0.8%	不適用 N/A	不適用 N/A	5.7%	1.9%	16.5%	3.1%
06-08/11/2007	569	33.4%	4.0%	*	-	44.3%	4.2%	0.5%	0.6%	*	-	0.5%	0.6%	*	-	1.4%	1.0%	不適用 N/A	不適用 N/A	5.2%	1.9%	14.2%	2.9%
05-07/11/2007	547	32.4%	4.0%	*	-	45.9%	4.3%	*	-	*	-	*	-	*	-	1.1%	0.9%	不適用 N/A	不適用 N/A	5.8%	2.0%	13.5%	2.9%
04-06/11/2007	527	33.1%	4.1%	*	-	44.1%	4.3%	*	-	*	-	*	-	*	-	0.9%	0.8%	不適用 N/A	不適用 N/A	5.9%	2.1%	15.2%	3.1%
03-05/11/2007	526	35.1%	4.2%	0.8%	0.8%	42.6%	4.3%	*	-	*	-	*	-	*	-	0.6%	0.7%	不適用 N/A	不適用 N/A	5.3%	2.0%	15.1%	3.1%
02-04/11/2007	527	37.5%	4.2%	1.0%	0.8%	43.0%	4.3%	*	-	*	-	*	-	*	-	0.6%	0.7%	不適用 N/A	不適用 N/A	4.0%	1.7%	13.2%	2.9%
01-03/11/2007	527	37.6%	4.2%	0.8%	0.8%	41.4%	4.3%	*	-	0.6%	0.7%	*	-	*	-	*	-	不適用 N/A	不適用 N/A	5.0%	1.9%	13.9%	3.0%
31/10-02/11/2007	526	35.6%	4.2%	*	-	40.9%	4.3%	0.6%	0.7%	*	-	*	-	*	-	*	-	*	-	4.4%	1.8%	17.4%	3.3%

*百分比不足0.5% Percentage less than 0.5%
^ 有關誤差數字均以95%置信水平及整體樣本計算。Figures of sampling error are calculated at 95% confidence level with respect to whole sample.

[Q2] 係黎緊12月2日舉行既立法會補選，你會唔會去投票？
[Q2] Will you vote in the coming Legislative Council by-election to be held on December 2?

日期 Date	總樣本人數 Total sample	肯定會 Certainly will		多數會 Most likely will		多數/肯定唔會 Mostly likely / Certainly won't		未決定／唔知／難講 Not decided yet/don't know/Hard to say
日期 Date	總樣本人數 Total sample	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error
16-18/11/2007	688	49.0%	3.8%	30.7%	3.5%	10.5%	2.3%	9.8%	2.3%
15-17/11/2007	691	50.4%	3.8%	30.6%	3.5%	10.8%	2.4%	8.1%	2.1%
14-16/11/2007	691	48.0%	3.8%	32.7%	3.6%	12.3%	2.5%	7.0%	1.9%
13-15/11/2007	654	49.2%	3.9%	31.0%	3.6%	12.0%	2.5%	7.8%	2.1%
12-14/11/2007	621	47.8%	4.0%	32.9%	3.8%	11.5%	2.6%	7.8%	2.1%
11-13/11/2007	590	48.2%	4.1%	31.8%	3.8%	11.3%	2.6%	8.7%	2.3%
10-12/11/2007	587	48.6%	4.1%	30.5%	3.8%	11.0%	2.6%	10.0%	2.5%
09-11/11/2007	585	48.3%	4.1%	30.1%	3.8%	11.3%	2.6%	10.3%	2.5%
08-10/11/2007	587	50.8%	4.1%	30.2%	3.8%	9.7%	2.4%	9.2%	2.4%
07-09/11/2007	587	51.3%	4.1%	32.4%	3.9%	8.5%	2.3%	7.8%	2.2%
06-08/11/2007	569	54.1%	4.2%	30.0%	3.8%	8.1%	2.3%	7.8%	2.2%
05-07/11/2007	547	48.8%	4.3%	31.0%	4.0%	9.7%	2.5%	10.5%	2.6%
04-06/11/2007	527	47.2%	4.3%	31.1%	4.0%	10.4%	2.7%	11.2%	2.7%
03-05/11/2007	526	42.6%	4.3%	35.0%	4.2%	10.8%	2.7%	11.6%	2.8%
02-04/11/2007	527	46.9%	4.3%	34.5%	4.1%	9.7%	2.6%	8.9%	2.5%
01-03/11/2007	527	45.2%	4.3%	34.9%	4.2%	9.9%	2.6%	10.1%	2.6%
31/10-02/11/2007	526	48.6%	4.4%	31.4%	4.0%	8.8%	2.5%	11.2%	2.8%

^ 有關誤差數字均以95%置信水平及整體樣本計算。Figures of sampling error are calculated at 95% confidence level with respect to whole sample.

交分析 Crosstab analyses

參選人 Candidates	日期 Date	總樣本人數 Total sample	所有被訪者 All respondents		政治取向 Political inclination								投票意欲 Intention to vote
			所有被訪者 All respondents		自稱民主派 Claimed to be pro-democracy camp		自稱親中派 Claimed to be pro-China camp		自稱中間派 Claimed to be moderate camp		自稱沒有政治傾向 Claimed to have no political inclination		肯定會 Certainly will		多數會 Most likely will		多數/肯定唔會 Mostly likely / Certainly won't		未決定／唔知／難講 Not decided yet/don't know/Hard to say
			百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error
葉劉淑儀	16-18/11/2007	688	30.8%	3.5%	9.0%	4.3%	72.4%	14.1%	42.2%	6.5%	30.9%	6.3%	36.1%	5.2%	29.3%	6.3%	12.5%	7.8%	29.1%	11.1%
IP LAU Suk-yee Regina	15-17/11/2007	691	31.3%	3.5%	7.2%	4.0%	77.8%	12.3%	37.6%	5.9%	34.2%	7.0%	36.4%	5.2%	29.8%	6.3%	17.4%	8.8%	24.2%	11.4%
	14-16/11/2007	691	32.3%	3.6%	6.9%	4.0%	73.1%	11.8%	38.2%	5.9%	35.6%	7.4%	36.8%	5.3%	34.3%	6.3%	16.5%	8.0%	19.2%	11.3%
	13-15/11/2007	654	35.6%	3.7%	5.6%	3.8%	74.9%	10.8%	43.1%	6.0%	35.8%	8.1%	42.2%	5.5%	34.1%	6.7%	21.8%	9.3%	20.0%	11.2%
	12-14/11/2007	621	37.3%	3.9%	9.1%	4.8%	75.9%	11.8%	46.5%	6.2%	33.9%	8.2%	41.3%	5.7%	39.2%	6.8%	24.1%	10.1%	23.6%	12.2%
	11-13/11/2007	590	33.9%	3.9%	9.4%	4.8%	76.9%	13.3%	46.0%	6.6%	27.0%	7.2%	39.4%	5.8%	34.4%	6.9%	21.1%	10.0%	19.6%	11.1%
	10-12/11/2007	587	29.6%	3.8%	8.0%	4.4%	66.6%	17.8%	41.0%	6.9%	26.8%	6.5%	32.4%	5.5%	35.2%	7.1%	14.0%	8.6%	17.5%	9.9%
	09-11/11/2007	585	27.7%	3.7%	6.0%	3.9%	63.6%	16.5%	39.8%	7.3%	27.3%	6.4%	35.0%	5.7%	29.2%	6.9%	7.6%	6.5%	12.1%	8.4%
	08-10/11/2007	587	31.3%	3.8%	4.3%	3.4%	65.8%	15.3%	41.0%	7.0%	35.6%	7.3%	39.5%	5.7%	29.3%	6.8%	8.8%	7.5%	17.3%	10.3%
	07-09/11/2007	587	33.0%	3.9%	4.9%	3.6%	73.7%	14.2%	43.9%	6.7%	36.6%	7.9%	41.4%	5.7%	29.3%	6.6%	8.0%	7.7%	22.2%	12.3%
	06-08/11/2007	569	33.4%	4.0%	3.5%	3.0%	78.2%	14.5%	43.4%	6.7%	41.2%	8.4%	38.7%	5.6%	30.5%	7.1%	11.1%	9.2%	32.0%	14.0%
	05-07/11/2007	547	32.4%	4.0%	4.3%	3.4%	78.9%	15.1%	41.1%	6.7%	40.5%	8.3%	35.6%	5.9%	33.7%	7.3%	13.7%	9.5%	31.6%	12.2%
	04-06/11/2007	527	33.1%	4.1%	5.3%	3.9%	75.8%	15.9%	42.0%	7.2%	38.5%	7.6%	34.9%	6.0%	34.8%	7.4%	18.2%	10.4%	34.5%	12.4%
	03-05/11/2007	526	35.1%	4.2%	8.9%	5.1%	65.5%	17.6%	43.3%	7.4%	40.2%	7.2%	38.4%	6.5%	37.5%	7.1%	17.5%	10.1%	32.2%	12.0%
	02-04/11/2007	527	37.5%	4.2%	11.2%	5.6%	69.7%	16.0%	47.0%	7.4%	40.7%	7.4%	41.6%	6.3%	38.5%	7.2%	17.7%	10.7%	33.3%	13.8%
	01-03/11/2007	527	37.6%	4.2%	13.7%	6.1%	58.8%	16.8%	47.5%	7.1%	41.6%	8.0%	43.2%	6.4%	40.2%	7.2%	13.5%	9.5%	26.9%	12.2%
	31/10-2/11/07	526	35.6%	4.2%	11.9%	5.6%	72.2%	14.9%	48.9%	7.2%	32.6%	7.9%	40.1%	6.1%	38.8%	7.6%	13.0%	9.9%	25.4%	11.3%
陳方安生	16-18/11/2007	688	51.8%	3.8%	82.1%	5.7%	17.5%	12.0%	41.5%	6.5%	43.5%	6.7%	55.9%	5.4%	53.9%	6.9%	37.5%	11.4%	38.8%	11.9%
CHAN FANG On-son Anson	15-17/11/2007	691	49.6%	3.8%	82.7%	5.8%	6.6%	7.4%	42.9%	6.1%	41.1%	7.3%	53.8%	5.3%	50.5%	6.9%	37.3%	11.2%	37.1%	12.9%
	14-16/11/2007	691	46.0%	3.8%	81.2%	6.1%	5.3%	5.9%	42.6%	6.0%	34.3%	7.3%	52.0%	5.5%	47.7%	6.6%	28.1%	9.7%	29.8%	13.2%
	13-15/11/2007	654	42.8%	3.9%	82.5%	6.3%	5.0%	5.4%	40.6%	5.9%	27.4%	7.5%	47.6%	5.6%	47.0%	7.0%	24.2%	9.7%	25.4%	12.2%
	12-14/11/2007	621	42.1%	4.0%	81.3%	6.4%	5.7%	6.4%	36.6%	6.0%	29.9%	7.9%	48.8%	5.8%	46.3%	7.0%	20.9%	9.6%	16.7%	10.7%
	11-13/11/2007	590	43.9%	4.1%	81.2%	6.4%	7.7%	8.4%	35.1%	6.3%	31.8%	7.5%	49.5%	5.9%	48.9%	7.3%	22.7%	10.3%	23.6%	11.9%
	10-12/11/2007	587	45.9%	4.1%	79.9%	6.5%	14.9%	13.4%	37.6%	6.8%	34.9%	7.0%	54.3%	5.9%	47.2%	7.5%	20.3%	10.0%	31.6%	12.2%
	09-11/11/2007	585	45.1%	4.1%	79.2%	6.6%	15.2%	12.3%	40.9%	7.3%	31.1%	6.6%	51.5%	5.9%	47.4%	7.5%	18.2%	9.5%	39.7%	12.6%
	08-10/11/2007	587	41.6%	4.1%	78.4%	6.9%	10.6%	9.9%	38.5%	6.9%	28.1%	6.9%	45.4%	5.8%	46.0%	7.5%	14.0%	9.2%	36.6%	13.1%
	07-09/11/2007	587	42.1%	4.1%	81.1%	6.5%	5.3%	7.2%	36.9%	6.5%	28.2%	7.4%	43.9%	5.7%	48.9%	7.3%	14.0%	9.8%	33.3%	13.9%
	06-08/11/2007	569	44.3%	4.2%	87.1%	5.5%	3.0%	6.0%	35.1%	6.4%	28.2%	7.7%	48.3%	5.7%	49.5%	7.7%	19.7%	11.7%	22.3%	12.5%
	05-07/11/2007	547	45.9%	4.3%	87.8%	5.5%	6.8%	9.3%	37.7%	6.6%	27.8%	7.5%	55.5%	6.1%	45.5%	7.7%	25.0%	11.9%	22.7%	11.0%
	04-06/11/2007	527	44.1%	4.3%	85.5%	6.1%	6.9%	9.4%	35.1%	6.9%	29.2%	7.1%	57.4%	6.3%	39.6%	7.6%	25.5%	11.7%	17.3%	9.8%
	03-05/11/2007	526	42.6%	4.3%	79.8%	7.2%	24.1%	15.9%	37.6%	7.3%	26.6%	6.5%	54.5%	6.7%	40.2%	7.2%	26.3%	11.7%	20.3%	10.3%
	02-04/11/2007	527	43.0%	4.3%	78.4%	7.3%	18.2%	13.4%	38.7%	7.2%	27.3%	6.7%	50.6%	6.4%	42.3%	7.3%	25.5%	12.2%	24.4%	12.5%
	01-03/11/2007	527	41.4%	4.3%	75.0%	7.7%	20.6%	13.8%	36.4%	6.8%	25.5%	7.1%	48.7%	6.5%	39.7%	7.2%	23.1%	11.7%	32.7%	12.9%
	31/10-2/11/07	526	40.9%	4.3%	73.1%	7.6%	5.6%	7.6%	35.1%	6.9%	29.1%	7.6%	49.6%	6.3%	38.8%	7.6%	19.6%	11.7%	25.4%	11.3%
未決定/唔知/難講	16-18/11/2007	688	10.8%	2.4%	5.6%	3.4%	5.0%	6.8%	9.7%	3.9%	15.9%	5.0%	5.7%	2.5%	12.5%	4.6%	15.3%	8.5%	27.3%	10.8%
Not decided yet/Don't know/Hard to say	15-17/11/2007	691	12.0%	2.5%	5.4%	3.5%	11.1%	9.3%	11.5%	3.9%	15.7%	5.4%	6.6%	2.7%	14.4%	4.8%	14.6%	8.2%	33.1%	12.5%
	14-16/11/2007	691	13.9%	2.6%	5.0%	3.4%	12.5%	8.8%	11.8%	3.9%	20.3%	6.2%	8.2%	3.0%	13.5%	4.5%	20.1%	8.7%	44.6%	14.3%
	13-15/11/2007	654	14.6%	2.8%	6.5%	4.1%	10.8%	7.8%	10.9%	3.8%	25.7%	7.4%	7.5%	2.9%	15.4%	5.1%	20.1%	9.0%	48.5%	14.0%
	12-14/11/2007	621	12.9%	2.7%	5.6%	3.8%	7.4%	7.2%	9.7%	3.7%	24.6%	7.4%	8.1%	3.2%	10.5%	4.3%	14.7%	8.4%	49.2%	14.4%
	11-13/11/2007	590	14.2%	2.9%	7.4%	4.3%	7.7%	8.4%	9.6%	3.9%	28.4%	7.3%	8.6%	3.3%	12.4%	4.8%	13.7%	8.4%	51.0%	14.0%
	10-12/11/2007	587	15.1%	3.0%	8.1%	4.4%	7.4%	9.9%	10.2%	4.2%	26.3%	6.5%	10.1%	3.6%	13.7%	5.1%	14.1%	8.7%	43.9%	13.0%
	09-11/11/2007	585	18.2%	3.2%	10.7%	5.0%	12.1%	11.2%	10.5%	4.5%	29.0%	6.5%	10.2%	3.6%	19.3%	6.0%	27.3%	10.9%	43.1%	12.8%
	08-10/11/2007	587	17.8%	3.2%	11.5%	5.4%	13.1%	10.9%	11.3%	4.5%	23.8%	6.5%	10.6%	3.6%	20.1%	6.0%	28.1%	11.9%	38.5%	13.2%
	07-09/11/2007	587	16.5%	3.1%	9.1%	4.8%	13.1%	10.9%	10.3%	4.1%	24.7%	7.1%	9.6%	3.4%	17.6%	5.5%	34.0%	13.4%	37.8%	14.3%
	06-08/11/2007	569	14.2%	2.9%	6.1%	3.9%	12.7%	11.7%	11.2%	4.3%	19.2%	6.7%	8.8%	3.2%	14.6%	5.4%	25.9%	12.9%	36.4%	14.5%
	05-07/11/2007	547	13.5%	2.9%	5.8%	3.9%	10.7%	11.4%	11.8%	4.4%	18.4%	6.5%	6.4%	3.0%	15.4%	5.5%	16.9%	10.3%	36.9%	12.7%
	04-06/11/2007	527	15.2%	3.1%	6.1%	4.2%	10.3%	11.3%	14.4%	5.1%	21.1%	6.4%	6.4%	3.1%	19.5%	6.2%	14.5%	9.5%	41.4%	12.8%
	03-05/11/2007	526	15.1%	3.1%	7.3%	4.7%	3.5%	6.8%	12.9%	5.0%	22.3%	6.1%	4.9%	2.9%	18.5%	5.7%	14.0%	9.2%	44.1%	12.7%
	02-04/11/2007	527	13.2%	2.9%	5.6%	4.1%	6.1%	8.3%	9.4%	4.3%	22.7%	6.3%	4.9%	2.7%	16.5%	5.5%	17.7%	10.7%	40.0%	14.3%
	01-03/11/2007	527	13.9%	3.0%	7.3%	4.6%	8.8%	9.7%	11.6%	4.5%	21.5%	6.7%	4.7%	2.7%	18.0%	5.7%	19.2%	10.9%	36.5%	13.2%
	31/10-2/11/07	526	17.4%	3.3%	10.5%	5.2%	11.1%	10.4%	11.2%	4.6%	30.5%	7.7%	7.9%	3.4%	20.0%	6.2%	28.3%	13.3%	42.4%	12.9%

^ 有關誤差數字均以95%置信水平及整體樣本計算。Figures of sampling error are calculated at 95% confidence level with respect to whole sample.