立法會香港島選區補選最後一輪滾動調查焦點分析 2007 Final set of feature analyses of Legislative Council by-election rolling survey result 2007Back

焦點分析 / Feature analyses

調查日期 Date of survey : 31/10/2007-30/11/2007

[Q1] 假如聽日係立法會港島區補選，你會投以下邊一位候選人?
[Q1] If the Hong Kong Island Legislative Council by-election were to be held tomorrow, which candidate would you vote for?

日期 Date	總樣本人數 Total sample	葉劉淑儀 IP LAU Suk-yee Regina		陳方安生 CHAN FANG On-son Anson		未決定/唔知/難講 Not decided yet/Don't know/Hard to say		其他 (其他人士及全部都唔選) Others (Other candidates & None of the above)
日期 Date	總樣本人數 Total sample	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error
25-30/11/2007	1786	31.9%	2.2%	45.0%	2.4%	15.6%	1.7%	7.6%	1.3%
19-24/11/2007	1468	32.2%	2.4%	46.0%	2.6%	14.5%	1.8%	7.3%	1.4%
13-18/11/2007	1342	33.2%	2.6%	47.3%	2.7%	12.7%	1.8%	6.8%	1.4%
07-12/11/2007	1174	31.3%	2.7%	44.0%	2.9%	15.8%	2.1%	8.8%	1.7%
31/10-6/11/2007	1229	35.3%	2.7%	41.7%	2.8%	16.2%	2.1%	6.7%	1.4%

*百分比不足0.5% Percentage less than 0.5%
^ 有關誤差數字均以95%置信水平及整體樣本計算。Figures of sampling error are calculated at 95% confidence level with respect to whole sample.

[Q2] 係黎緊12月2日舉行既立法會補選，你會唔會去投票？
[Q2] Will you vote in the coming Legislative Council by-election to be held on December 2?

日期 Date	總樣本人數 Total sample	肯定會 Certainly will		多數會 Most likely will		多數/肯定唔會 Mostly likely / Certainly won't		未決定／唔知／難講 Not decided yet/don't know/Hard to say
日期 Date	總樣本人數 Total sample	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error
25-30/11/2007	1786	64.2%	2.3%	22.0%	2.0%	8.0%	1.3%	5.8%	1.1%
19-24/11/2007	1468	54.9%	2.6%	27.8%	2.3%	8.3%	1.4%	8.9%	1.5%
13-18/11/2007	1342	49.1%	2.7%	30.8%	2.5%	11.3%	1.7%	8.8%	1.5%
07-12/11/2007	1174	49.9%	2.9%	31.5%	2.7%	9.7%	1.7%	8.9%	1.7%
31/10-6/11/2007	1229	46.7%	2.8%	32.3%	2.7%	9.9%	1.7%	11.1%	1.8%

^ 有關誤差數字均以95%置信水平及整體樣本計算。Figures of sampling error are calculated at 95% confidence level with respect to whole sample.

交分析 Crosstab analyses

參選人 Candidates	日期 Date	總樣本人數 Total sample	所有被訪者 All respondents		政治取向 Political inclination
			所有被訪者 All respondents		自稱民主派 Claimed to be pro-democracy camp		自稱親中派 Claimed to be pro-China camp		自稱中間派 Claimed to be moderate camp		自稱沒有政治傾向 Claimed to have no political inclination
			百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error
葉劉淑儀	25-30/11/2007	1786	31.9%	2.2%	6.0%	2.2%	86.1%	6.2%	40.9%	4.2%	33.9%	4.0%
IP LAU Suk-yee Regina	19-24/11/2007	1468	32.2%	2.4%	5.3%	2.3%	73.8%	8.5%	40.5%	4.3%	38.4%	4.8%
	13-18/11/2007	1342	33.2%	2.6%	7.4%	2.9%	74.0%	8.6%	42.7%	4.4%	32.9%	5.0%
	07-12/11/2007	1174	31.3%	2.7%	6.5%	2.9%	70.8%	11.2%	42.5%	4.8%	31.2%	5.1%
	31/10-6/11/2007	1229	35.3%	2.7%	10.5%	3.5%	69.2%	10.6%	46.2%	4.8%	36.9%	5.0%
陳方安生	25-30/11/2007	1786	45.0%	2.4%	84.8%	3.3%	7.3%	4.6%	36.6%	4.1%	30.7%	3.9%
CHAN FANG On-son Anson	19-24/11/2007	1468	46.0%	2.6%	86.7%	3.5%	10.2%	5.8%	40.4%	4.3%	29.3%	4.5%
	13-18/11/2007	1342	47.3%	2.7%	82.3%	4.2%	9.7%	5.8%	41.0%	4.4%	36.9%	5.1%
	07-12/11/2007	1174	44.0%	2.9%	80.5%	4.6%	9.3%	7.1%	37.3%	4.7%	31.9%	5.1%
	31/10-6/11/2007	1229	41.7%	2.8%	76.4%	4.8%	13.8%	7.9%	36.3%	4.6%	27.7%	4.6%
未決定/唔知/難講	25-30/11/2007	1786	15.6%	1.7%	4.8%	2.0%	3.2%	3.2%	14.2%	2.9%	25.2%	3.7%
Not decided yet/Don't know/Hard to say	19-24/11/2007	1468	14.5%	1.8%	5.7%	2.4%	9.4%	5.6%	10.3%	2.7%	20.8%	4.0%
	13-18/11/2007	1342	12.7%	1.8%	6.0%	2.6%	8.6%	5.5%	10.4%	2.7%	20.0%	4.2%
	07-12/11/2007	1174	15.8%	2.1%	8.6%	3.3%	10.8%	7.6%	10.3%	2.9%	25.6%	4.8%
	31/10-6/11/2007	1229	16.2%	2.1%	8.9%	3.2%	7.7%	6.1%	12.0%	3.1%	25.9%	4.5%

^ 有關誤差數字均以95%置信水平及整體樣本計算。Figures of sampling error are calculated at 95% confidence level with respect to whole sample.

參選人 Candidates	日期 Date	總樣本人數 Total sample	所有被訪者 All respondents		投票意欲 Intention to vote
			所有被訪者 All respondents		肯定會 Certainly will		多數會 Most likely will		多數/肯定唔會 Mostly likely / Certainly won't		未決定／唔知／難講 Not decided yet/don't know/Hard to say
			百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error
葉劉淑儀	25-30/11/2007	1786	31.9%	2.2%	35.5%	2.8%	31.0%	4.7%	18.2%	6.5%	13.5%	6.7%
IP LAU Suk-yee Regina	19-24/11/2007	1468	32.2%	2.4%	34.1%	3.3%	35.3%	4.7%	17.9%	6.9%	24.3%	7.5%
	13-18/11/2007	1342	33.2%	2.6%	39.1%	3.8%	31.7%	4.6%	17.5%	6.2%	24.9%	8.0%
	07-12/11/2007	1174	31.3%	2.7%	37.0%	4.0%	32.1%	4.9%	11.4%	5.9%	19.6%	7.8%
	31/10-6/11/2007	1229	35.3%	2.7%	39.3%	4.1%	38.1%	4.9%	15.5%	6.6%	28.8%	7.8%
陳方安生	25-30/11/2007	1786	45.0%	2.4%	50.2%	3.0%	42.3%	5.0%	18.2%	6.5%	35.4%	9.4%
CHAN FANG On-son Anson	19-24/11/2007	1468	46.0%	2.6%	54.5%	3.5%	43.3%	4.9%	22.7%	7.6%	23.9%	7.5%
	13-18/11/2007	1342	47.3%	2.7%	51.7%	3.9%	50.4%	4.9%	30.4%	7.5%	32.7%	8.6%
	07-12/11/2007	1174	44.0%	2.9%	49.0%	4.1%	48.1%	5.2%	17.6%	7.1%	32.4%	9.2%
	31/10-6/11/2007	1229	41.7%	2.8%	51.9%	4.2%	39.5%	4.9%	23.3%	7.7%	22.9%	7.2%
未決定/唔知/難講	25-30/11/2007	1786	15.6%	1.7%	11.1%	1.9%	20.8%	4.1%	17.4%	6.3%	42.5%	9.7%
Not decided yet/Don't know/Hard to say	19-24/11/2007	1468	14.5%	1.8%	8.9%	2.0%	17.9%	3.8%	10.9%	5.6%	41.8%	8.6%
	13-18/11/2007	1342	12.7%	1.8%	6.6%	1.9%	14.0%	3.4%	17.8%	6.2%	37.0%	8.9%
	07-12/11/2007	1174	15.8%	2.1%	9.8%	2.5%	15.7%	3.8%	22.8%	7.9%	41.2%	9.6%
	31/10-6/11/2007	1229	16.2%	2.1%	6.5%	2.1%	19.2%	4.0%	20.4%	7.3%	43.2%	8.5%

^ 有關誤差數字均以95%置信水平及整體樣本計算。Figures of sampling error are calculated at 95% confidence level with respect to whole sample.

參選人 Candidates	日期 Date	總樣本人數 Total sample	所有被訪者 All respondents		性別 Gender
			所有被訪者 All respondents		男 Male		女 Female
			百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error
葉劉淑儀	25-30/11/2007	1786	31.9%	2.2%	34.3%	3.4%	29.9%	2.9%
IP LAU Suk-yee Regina	19-24/11/2007	1468	32.2%	2.4%	33.6%	3.7%	31.1%	3.2%
	13-18/11/2007	1342	33.2%	2.6%	32.0%	3.8%	34.1%	3.5%
	07-12/11/2007	1174	31.3%	2.7%	32.7%	4.0%	30.1%	3.7%
	31/10-6/11/2007	1229	35.3%	2.7%	35.2%	4.2%	35.4%	3.6%
陳方安生	25-30/11/2007	1786	45.0%	2.4%	44.8%	3.6%	45.1%	3.1%
CHAN FANG On-son Anson	19-24/11/2007	1468	46.0%	2.6%	46.9%	3.9%	45.3%	3.5%
	13-18/11/2007	1342	47.3%	2.7%	50.9%	4.1%	44.5%	3.6%
	07-12/11/2007	1174	44.0%	2.9%	45.9%	4.3%	42.3%	3.9%
	31/10-6/11/2007	1229	41.7%	2.8%	44.9%	4.4%	39.5%	3.7%
未決定/唔知/難講	25-30/11/2007	1786	15.6%	1.7%	12.2%	2.3%	18.2%	2.4%
Not decided yet/Don't know/Hard to say	19-24/11/2007	1468	14.5%	1.8%	11.0%	2.4%	17.3%	2.7%
	13-18/11/2007	1342	12.7%	1.8%	10.1%	2.5%	14.7%	2.6%
	07-12/11/2007	1174	15.8%	2.1%	12.1%	2.8%	19.1%	3.1%
	31/10-6/11/2007	1229	16.2%	2.1%	14.4%	3.1%	17.6%	2.9%

^ 有關誤差數字均以95%置信水平及整體樣本計算。Figures of sampling error are calculated at 95% confidence level with respect to whole sample.

參選人 Candidates	日期 Date	總樣本人數 Total sample	所有被訪者 All respondents		年齡 Age
			所有被訪者 All respondents		18-29		30-49		50或以上 50 or above
			百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error
葉劉淑儀	25-30/11/2007	1786	31.9%	2.2%	30.5%	6.9%	28.3%	3.6%	35.0%	3.0%
IP LAU Suk-yee Regina	19-24/11/2007	1468	32.2%	2.4%	28.9%	7.3%	29.8%	4.0%	35.0%	3.4%
	13-18/11/2007	1342	33.2%	2.6%	32.5%	8.4%	31.8%	4.3%	35.0%	3.5%
	07-12/11/2007	1174	31.3%	2.7%	25.9%	8.3%	29.7%	4.5%	32.9%	3.7%
	31/10-6/11/2007	1229	35.3%	2.7%	32.4%	8.5%	33.8%	4.5%	38.0%	3.8%
陳方安生	25-30/11/2007	1786	45.0%	2.4%	50.7%	7.5%	48.0%	4.0%	42.5%	3.1%
CHAN FANG On-son Anson	19-24/11/2007	1468	46.0%	2.6%	55.2%	8.0%	49.9%	4.4%	42.3%	3.5%
	13-18/11/2007	1342	47.3%	2.7%	55.0%	8.9%	53.1%	4.7%	42.7%	3.6%
	07-12/11/2007	1174	44.0%	2.9%	54.6%	9.4%	49.6%	5.0%	39.3%	3.8%
	31/10-6/11/2007	1229	41.7%	2.8%	47.1%	9.0%	44.9%	4.8%	39.4%	3.8%
未決定/唔知/難講	25-30/11/2007	1786	15.6%	1.7%	8.0%	4.1%	14.3%	2.8%	16.7%	2.4%
Not decided yet/Don't know/Hard to say	19-24/11/2007	1468	14.5%	1.8%	7.9%	4.3%	11.7%	2.8%	16.5%	2.6%
	13-18/11/2007	1342	12.7%	1.8%	4.3%	3.6%	8.6%	2.6%	15.8%	2.7%
	07-12/11/2007	1174	15.8%	2.1%	9.3%	5.5%	11.5%	3.2%	19.6%	3.1%
	31/10-6/11/2007	1229	16.2%	2.1%	10.8%	5.6%	13.9%	3.3%	17.2%	2.9%

^ 有關誤差數字均以95%置信水平及整體樣本計算。Figures of sampling error are calculated at 95% confidence level with respect to whole sample.

參選人 Candidates	日期 Date	總樣本人數 Total sample	所有被訪者 All respondents		教育程度 Education attainment
			所有被訪者 All respondents		小學或以下 Primary or below		中學 Secondary		大專或以上 Postgraduate or above
			百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error
葉劉淑儀	25-30/11/2007	1786	31.9%	2.2%	31.8%	5.2%	32.7%	3.1%	30.8%	3.9%
IP LAU Suk-yee Regina	19-24/11/2007	1468	32.2%	2.4%	31.6%	5.6%	34.9%	3.5%	29.2%	4.2%
	13-18/11/2007	1342	33.2%	2.6%	29.3%	5.6%	34.7%	3.7%	32.9%	4.5%
	07-12/11/2007	1174	31.3%	2.7%	25.1%	5.8%	33.4%	3.9%	31.9%	4.8%
	31/10-6/11/2007	1229	35.3%	2.7%	31.8%	5.9%	38.6%	4.1%	33.5%	4.7%
陳方安生	25-30/11/2007	1786	45.0%	2.4%	34.9%	5.3%	46.0%	3.3%	50.1%	4.2%
CHAN FANG On-son Anson	19-24/11/2007	1468	46.0%	2.6%	34.8%	5.7%	46.2%	3.7%	54.0%	4.6%
	13-18/11/2007	1342	47.3%	2.7%	33.6%	5.8%	51.2%	3.9%	51.0%	4.8%
	07-12/11/2007	1174	44.0%	2.9%	30.7%	6.1%	45.0%	4.2%	52.0%	5.1%
	31/10-6/11/2007	1229	41.7%	2.8%	35.0%	6.1%	40.7%	4.1%	48.2%	5.0%
未決定/唔知/難講	25-30/11/2007	1786	15.6%	1.7%	24.8%	4.8%	14.8%	2.4%	10.0%	2.5%
Not decided yet/Don't know/Hard to say	19-24/11/2007	1468	14.5%	1.8%	22.7%	5.0%	12.1%	2.4%	10.6%	2.9%
	13-18/11/2007	1342	12.7%	1.8%	28.1%	5.6%	9.4%	2.3%	8.2%	2.6%
	07-12/11/2007	1174	15.8%	2.1%	33.0%	6.2%	12.6%	2.8%	9.0%	2.9%
	31/10-6/11/2007	1229	16.2%	2.1%	26.2%	5.6%	14.6%	2.9%	11.2%	3.1%

^ 有關誤差數字均以95%置信水平及整體樣本計算。Figures of sampling error are calculated at 95% confidence level with respect to whole sample.

參選人 Candidates	日期 Date	總樣本人數 Total sample	所有被訪者 All respondents		職業 Occupation
			所有被訪者 All respondents		行政及專業人員 Executives and professionals		文職及服務人員 Clerical and service workers		勞動工人 Production workers		學生 Students		全職主婦 Housewives		其他 Others
			百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error
葉劉淑儀	25-30/11/2007	1786	31.9%	2.2%	33.3%	4.5%	26.5%	4.8%	32.6%	8.0%	31.0%	12.3%	31.4%	5.2%	35.1%	4.3%
IP LAU Suk-yee Regina	19-24/11/2007	1468	32.2%	2.4%	27.8%	5.0%	32.2%	5.5%	30.2%	8.0%	39.1%	12.8%	32.8%	5.8%	35.8%	4.8%
	13-18/11/2007	1342	33.2%	2.6%	30.9%	5.3%	30.0%	5.8%	32.9%	9.0%	34.5%	17.4%	34.5%	5.8%	36.7%	5.0%
	07-12/11/2007	1174	31.3%	2.7%	34.0%	5.4%	28.6%	6.5%	23.4%	8.6%	16.2%	11.9%	31.6%	6.2%	32.8%	5.3%
	31/10-6/11/2007	1229	35.3%	2.7%	35.6%	5.7%	35.4%	6.6%	35.5%	9.0%	31.6%	13.8%	33.0%	5.5%	39.1%	5.7%
陳方安生	25-30/11/2007	1786	45.0%	2.4%	47.8%	4.8%	47.7%	5.5%	50.7%	8.6%	49.3%	13.3%	46.1%	5.6%	38.8%	4.4%
CHAN FANG On-son Anson	19-24/11/2007	1468	46.0%	2.6%	52.1%	5.6%	46.9%	5.8%	48.7%	8.7%	48.6%	13.2%	47.2%	6.1%	39.5%	4.9%
	13-18/11/2007	1342	47.3%	2.7%	55.3%	5.7%	52.3%	6.3%	44.8%	9.5%	54.4%	18.2%	47.7%	6.1%	38.6%	5.0%
	07-12/11/2007	1174	44.0%	2.9%	52.4%	5.7%	46.6%	7.1%	53.3%	10.1%	67.6%	15.2%	39.2%	6.6%	34.1%	5.3%
	31/10-6/11/2007	1229	41.7%	2.8%	49.8%	6.0%	40.6%	6.8%	49.5%	9.4%	52.7%	14.9%	40.5%	5.7%	31.5%	5.5%
未決定/唔知/難講	25-30/11/2007	1786	15.6%	1.7%	9.0%	2.7%	17.7%	4.2%	10.7%	5.3%	5.7%	6.1%	16.2%	4.1%	20.0%	3.6%
Not decided yet/Don't know/Hard to say	19-24/11/2007	1468	14.5%	1.8%	11.4%	3.5%	13.1%	3.9%	10.2%	5.3%	3.3%	4.7%	14.5%	4.3%	18.6%	3.9%
	13-18/11/2007	1342	12.7%	1.8%	5.4%	2.6%	11.5%	4.0%	15.7%	6.9%	3.9%	7.0%	11.1%	3.8%	20.0%	4.1%
	07-12/11/2007	1174	15.8%	2.1%	7.8%	3.1%	15.3%	5.2%	8.5%	5.6%	5.4%	7.3%	19.8%	5.4%	24.7%	4.8%
	31/10-6/11/2007	1229	16.2%	2.1%	9.0%	3.4%	15.4%	5.0%	8.6%	5.3%	10.5%	9.1%	19.4%	4.6%	23.5%	5.0%

^ 有關誤差數字均以95%置信水平及整體樣本計算。Figures of sampling error are calculated at 95% confidence level with respect to whole sample.

參選人 Candidates	日期 Date	總樣本人數 Total sample	所有被訪者 All respondents		家庭所屬階級 Family class
			所有被訪者 All respondents		自稱中層或中上層 Claimed to be middle or upper-middle levels		自稱基層或中下層 Claimed to be lower-middle or grassroot levels
			百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error	百分比 Perecetage %	^誤差 ^Sampling error
葉劉淑儀	25-30/11/2007	1786	31.9%	2.2%	32.0%	3.0%	33.0%	3.2%
IP LAU Suk-yee Regina	19-24/11/2007	1468	32.2%	2.4%	33.9%	3.4%	32.1%	3.5%
	13-18/11/2007	1342	33.2%	2.6%	36.4%	3.6%	29.8%	3.7%
	07-12/11/2007	1174	31.3%	2.7%	-	-	-	-
	31/10-6/11/2007	1229	35.3%	2.7%	-	-	-	-
陳方安生	25-30/11/2007	1786	45.0%	2.4%	48.7%	3.3%	43.6%	3.4%
CHAN FANG On-son Anson	19-24/11/2007	1468	46.0%	2.6%	48.9%	3.6%	44.5%	3.7%
	13-18/11/2007	1342	47.3%	2.7%	49.0%	3.7%	47.9%	4.0%
	07-12/11/2007	1174	44.0%	2.9%	-	-	-	-
	31/10-6/11/2007	1229	41.7%	2.8%	-	-	-	-
未決定/唔知/難講	25-30/11/2007	1786	15.6%	1.7%	12.2%	2.1%	15.0%	2.5%
Not decided yet/Don't know/Hard to say	19-24/11/2007	1468	14.5%	1.8%	10.9%	2.3%	15.4%	2.7%
	13-18/11/2007	1342	12.7%	1.8%	8.3%	2.0%	15.3%	2.9%
	07-12/11/2007	1174	15.8%	2.1%	-	-	-	-
	31/10-6/11/2007	1229	16.2%	2.1%	-	-	-	-

^ 有關誤差數字均以95%置信水平及整體樣本計算。Figures of sampling error are calculated at 95% confidence level with respect to whole sample.