Summary of FindingsBack


 
 

The changes in people's support towards CE and the SAR Government after the "July 1 Demonstration" and the government's three amendments

 
 

One question of the study was to ask respondents to rate, using a scale of 0-100, their extent of support to the Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa, with 0 indicating absolutely not supportive, 100 indicating absolutely supportive and 50 indicating half-half. Results showed that, after the "July 1 Demonstration" and the government's amendments made to the legislation of Article 23, the latest rating of CE Tung Chee-hwa registered was 35.4 marks (Table 4). The figure was more or less the same with that registered right after the "July 1 Demonstration" and before the government's amending the bill of Article 23. However, it is noteworthy that the figure has declined dramatically by 8.3 marks after the demonstration from that of mid-June (Table 5).


Table 4 - [Q1] Please use a scale of 0-100 to rate your extent of support to the Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa, with 0 indicating absolutely not supportive, 100 indicating absolutely supportive and 50 indicating half-half. How would you rate the Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa?
   2-4/7/2003  5/7/2003
   Frequency  Percentage  Frequency  Percentage
  0-9  195   19.1   180   18.9 
  10-19  45   4.4   40   4.1 
  20-29  79   7.7   66   7 
  30-39  175   17.2   160   16.8 
  40-49  79   15.7   149   15.7 
  50  160   20.3   231   24.2 
  51-60  207   7.4   51   5.3 
  61-70  76   3.8   35   3.6 
  71-80  39   1.8   18   1.9 
  81-90  8   0.8   8   0.8 
  91-100  19   1.9   19   2 
  Total  1,020   100   955   100 
  No of raters  1,020      955    
  Base  1,046      1,022^    
  Mean  35      35.4    
  Standard error  0.74      0.76    
  Missing case(s)  26      67    
^ A small number of cases were dropped from the base of this question because it was not included on the first day of the survey.

Table 5 - Trend of CE Tung Chee-hwa's rating
 Date of survey Supporting rate Standard error Total sample No of raters Recognition rate
  5/7/03  35.4   0.8   1,022   955   93.4 
  2-4/7/03  35.0   0.7   1,046   1,020   97.5 
  13-18/6/03  43.7   0.7   1,043   991   95.0 
  3-6/6/03  45.7   0.7   1,027   975   94.9 
  15-20/5/03  44.2   0.7   1,067   1,032   96.7 
  2-7/5/03  41.2   0.7   1,008   957   94.9 
  16-23/4/03  39.5   0.7   1,021   974   95.4 
  4-9/4/03  41.3   0.7   1,066   1,024   96.1 
  17-19/3/03  43.9   0.6   1,068   1,018   95.3 
  12-13/3/03  43.8   0.7   1,040   986   94.8 
  5/3/03  42.8   0.7   1,047   962   91.9 
  1-4/3/03  43.9   0.7   1,035   986   95.3 
  14-18/2/03  45.4   0.7   1,045   995   95.2 
  4-7/2/03  45.6   0.7   1,020   963   94.4 
  23-28/1/03  45.5   0.7   1,050   991   94.4 
  20-23/1/03  45.2   0.7   1,049   1,016   96.9 
  8-9/1/03  47.3   0.7   1,259   1,188   94.4 
  2-7/1/03  46.6   0.7   1,063   1,029   96.8 
  13-18/12/02  47.0   0.7   1,026   971   94.6 
  2-6/12/02  48.0   0.7   1,063   1,026   96.5 
  13-20/11/02  47.4   0.7   1,058   1,011   95.6 
  1-5/11/02  47.1   0.7   1,062   1,013   95.4 
  13-16/10/02  49.2   0.7   1,028   971   94.5 
  2-7/10/02  49.0   0.7   1,006   932   92.6 
  12-17/9/02  48.5   0.7   1,062   991   93.3 
  2-5/9/02  47.7   0.7   1,017   978   96.2 
  14-19/8/02  47.0   0.6   1,018   949   93.2 
  2-7/8/02  48.0   0.6   1,030   970   94.2 
  10-15/7/02  50.1   0.7   1,052   971   92.3 
  2-3/7/02  51.9   0.7   1,068   1,001   93.7 

Chart 1 - Trend of CE Tung Chee-hwa's rating
Trend of CE Tung Chee-hwa's rating

Results also revealed that, if a general election of the Chief Executive were to be held the following day, and the people had the right to vote, 71% (70.9%) of the respondents would not vote for Tung Chee-hwa as the Chief Executive, 13% (13.1%) would, while 16% (15.9%) did not give a definite answer (Table 6). When compared to the findings of the tracking poll conducted by the research team in early June, the proportion of those who would not vote for Tung has significantly increased by 9 percentage points to reach its record high. On the other hand, a significant drop of 8 percentage points was observed for the supportive votes. On a macro level, the proportion of those who would not vote for Tung has fluctuated upwards from 36% (35.8%) since February last year, and has been hovering at the level of over 60% since this year. After the "July 1 Demonstration", the figure has even broken the level of 70% (Table 7).

Table 6 - [Q2] If a general election of the Chief Executive were to be held tomorrow, and you had the right to vote, would you vote for Tung Chee-hwa?
   4-5/7/2003
   Frequency  Percentage
  Yes  152   13.1 
  No  820   70.9 
  Don't know / hard to say  184   15.9 
  Total  1,156   100 
  Base  1,160    
  Missing case(s)  4    

Table 7 - Trend of hypothetical voting on Tung Chee-hwa as the Chief Executive
 Date of survey Yes No Don't know / hard to say Total
  4-5/7/03  13.1   70.9   15.9   100.0 
  3-6/6/03  20.7   61.7   17.7   100.0 
  12-13/3/03  17.0   68.1   14.9   100.0 
  1-4/3/03  20.4   64.0   15.7   100.0 
  20-23/1/03  21.2   61.3   17.5   100.0 
  2-6/12/02  22.9   55.5   21.6   100.0 
  2-5/9/02  25.7   55.2   19.1   100.0 
  10-15/7/02  28.8   51.7   19.6   100.0 
  2-3/7/02  31.5   46.9   21.6   100.0 
  17-19/6/02  30.6   51.5   17.9   100.0 
  4-5/6/02  32.3   45.7   22.0   100.0 
  14-16/5/02  35.3   43.9   20.8   100.0 
  2-7/5/02  39.4   39.7   20.9   100.0 
  15-17/4/02  37.5   42.0   20.5   100.0 
  2-8/4/02  37.8   39.5   22.8   100.0 
  12-13/3/02  43.7   39.9   16.4   100.0 
  1-5/3/02  41.9   38.7   19.4   100.0 
  18-21/2/02  43.1   37.1   19.8   100.0 
  4-6/2/02  47.0   35.8   17.2   100.0 

Chart 2 - Trend of hypothetical voting on Tung Chee-hwa as the Chief Executive
Trend of hypothetical voting on Tung Chee-hwa as the Chief Executive

With respect to people's appraisal of the overall performance of the SAR Government, results showed that 65% (65.2%) were dissatisfied, 9% (9.2%) were satisfied, and 22% (21.6%) said "half-half" (Table 8). When compared to the tracking poll findings obtained in mid-June, the dissatisfaction figure has surged for 12 percentage points to set a historic high, whereas a significant decrease of 8 percentage points was recorded for the satisfaction level (Table 9b).

Table 8 - [Q3] Are you satisfied with the overall performance of the HKSAR Government? (Interviewers to probe strength of opinion)
   4-5/7/2003
   Frequency  Percentage
  Very satisfied  21  )   1.8  ) 
  Quite satisfied  85  ) 106   7.4  ) 9.2 
  Half-half  250     21.6   
  Not quite satisfied  391  )   33.8  ) 
  Very dissatisfied  364  ) 755   31.4  ) 65.2 
  Don't know / hard to say  47     4.1   
  Total  1,158     100   
  Base  1,160        
  Missing case(s)  2        

Table 9a - People's Satisfaction with the HKSAR Government
 Date of survey Very satisfied Quite satisfied Half-half Not quite satisfied Very dissatisfied Don't know / hard to say Total
  4-5/7/03  1.8   7.4   21.6   33.8   31.4   4.1   100.0 
  13-18/6/03  1.8   15.1   25.5   33.5   20.0   4.0   100.0 
  15-20/5/03  2.3   15.8   26.4   34.4   18.1   3.0   100.0 
  16-23/4/03  0.3   11.3   24.0   37.8   23.0   3.5   100.0 
  17-19/3/03  0.3   11.2   24.9   39.3   19.7   4.5   100.0 
  14-18/2/03  0.6   14.0   25.6   39.5   16.7   3.5   100.0 
  20-23/1/03  1.0   18.3   27.0   36.6   14.0   3.1   100.0 
  13-18/12/02  1.3   15.6   30.2   34.6   13.8   4.4   100.0 
  13-20/11/02  1.4   15.3   27.9   35.7   15.1   4.6   100.0 
  13-16/10/02  0.8   17.9   28.0   39.1   10.7   3.5   100.0 
  12-17/9/02  1.0   15.0   29.3   39.0   11.4   4.3   100.0 
  14-19/8/02  0.9   14.6   26.4   41.4   10.7   5.9   100.0 
  2-3/7/02  0.6   23.3   26.7   37.3   6.1   6.0   100.0 
  4-5/6/02  1.3   23.1   25.9   38.8   4.8   6.1   100.0 
  2-7/5/02  0.4   26.6   30.2   32.4   5.1   5.3   100.0 
  2-8/4/02  1.4   24.4   33.3   29.8   5.9   5.1   100.0 
  1-5/3/02  1.1   21.2   29.8   35.9   6.3   5.6   100.0 
  4-6/2/02  1.8   24.7   32.1   30.4   6.4   4.5   100.0 
  2-6/1/02  1.6   21.9   36.6   29.5   7.9   2.6   100.0 
  7-9/12/01  1.3   18.9   29.6   33.4   7.9   8.8   100.0 
  1-5/11/01  1.2   17.4   29.4   35.0   12.5   4.5   100.0 
  5-8/10/01  0.7   16.7   30.0   33.6   14.1   4.9   100.0 
  3-7/9/01  0.6   14.9   31.9   36.1   11.2   5.3   100.0 
  1-3/8/01  1.2   25.3   30.3   30.6   8.9   3.6   100.0 
  3-9/7/01  0.9   21.8   34.0   31.8   8.5   3.0   100.0 

Table 9b - People's Satisfaction with the HKSAR Government（Collapsed data）
 Date of survey Satisfied Half-half Dissatisfied Don't know / hard to say Total
  4-5/7/03  9.2   21.6   65.2   4.1   100.0 
  13-18/6/03  16.9   25.5   53.5   4.0   100.0 
  15-20/5/03  18.1   26.4   52.5   3.0   100.0 
  16-23/4/03  11.6   24.0   60.8   3.5   100.0 
  17-19/3/03  11.5   24.9   59.0   4.5   100.0 
  14-18/2/03  14.6   25.6   56.2   3.5   100.0 
  20-23/1/03  19.3   27.0   50.6   3.1   100.0 
  13-18/12/02  16.9   30.2   48.4   4.4   100.0 
  13-20/11/02  16.7   27.9   50.8   4.6   100.0 
  13-16/10/02  18.7   28.0   49.8   3.5   100.0 
  12-17/9/02  16.0   29.3   50.4   4.3   100.0 
  14-19/8/02  15.5   26.4   52.1   5.9   100.0 
  2-3/7/02  23.9   26.7   43.4   6.0   100.0 
  4-5/6/02  24.4   25.9   43.6   6.1   100.0 
  2-7/5/02  27.0   30.2   37.5   5.3   100.0 
  2-8/4/02  25.8   33.3   35.7   5.1   100.0 
  1-5/3/02  22.3   29.8   42.2   5.6   100.0 
  4-6/2/02  26.5   32.1   36.8   4.5   100.0 
  2-6/1/02  23.5   36.6   37.4   2.6   100.0 
  7-9/12/01  20.2   29.6   41.3   8.8   100.0 
  1-5/11/01  18.6   29.4   47.5   4.5   100.0 
  5-8/10/01  17.4   30.0   47.7   4.9   100.0 
  3-7/9/01  15.5   31.9   47.3   5.3   100.0 
  1-3/8/01  26.5   30.3   39.5   3.6   100.0 
  3-9/7/01  22.7   34.0   40.3   3.0   100.0 

Chart 3 - People's Satisfaction with the HKSAR Government
People's Satisfaction with the HKSAR Government

Whether people accepted the government's concessions

After the "July 1 Demonstration", the government made three amendments to the proposed legislation for Article 23, including the removal of the proscription of groups affiliated with bodies banned on the mainland, the introduction of public interest as a defence in connection with the unlawful disclosure of certain official information, as well as the deletion of the provision giving the police powers to conduct home searches without a court warrant during emergency investigations. Results indicated that, after the government made these concessions, 54% (53.6%) of the respondents still opposed passing the legislation on July 9, 23% (23.0%) supported it, 7% (7.4%) said "half-half", while 16% (15.9%) did not give a definite answer (Table 10).

Table 10 - [Q4] Regarding Article 23 of the Basic Law, after the July 1 demonstration, the government will now press ahead with tabling the Bill before Legco on July 9, after making the following amendments: The provision covering the proscription of groups affiliated with bodies banned on the mainland will be deleted; public interest will be added as a defence in connection with the unlawful disclosure of certain official information; and the provision giving the police powers to conduct searches without a court warrant during emergency investigations will be removed from the legislation. Do you support or oppose the government's passing the amended bill on July 9? (Interviewers to probe strength of opinion)
   4-5/7/2003
   Frequency  Percentage
  Very supportive  44  )   4.3  ) 
  Quite supportive  189  ) 233   18.7  ) 23.0 
  Half-half  75     7.4   
  Quite opposed  295  )   29  ) 
  Very opposed  250  ) 545   24.6  ) 53.6 
  Don't know / hard to say  162     15.9   
  Total  1,014     100   
  Base  1,022^        
  Missing case(s)  8        
^ A small number of cases were dropped from the base of this question because it was not included on the first day of the survey.

When prompted with different options, results revealed that 5% (4.6%) of the respondents would express support or excitement if the legislation for Article 23 was passed, 30% (30.2%) would accept the reality, 40% (39.7%) would continue the struggle in compliance with the law, while 16% (16.1%) opted for continuing the struggle by "civil disobedience". Meanwhile, 9% (9.4%) did not give a definite answer (Table 11).

Table 11 - [Q5] What do you think the Hong Kong people should do if the legislation for Article 23 is passed?
   4-5/7/2003
   Frequency  Percentage
  Express support or excitement  53   4.6 
  Accept the reality  348   30.2 
  Continue the struggle in compliance with the law  457   39.7 
  Continue the struggle by civil disobedience  186   16.1 
  Don't know / hard to say  108   9.4 
  Total  1,152   100 
  Base  1,160    
  Missing case(s)  8    

People's latest demands

This survey attempted to measure the demands of the people who joined the demonstration on July 1 from two perspectives. Respondents were first asked to give their perceived demands of the Hong Kong people who marched, putting aside their own views. The survey then continued to ask those who actually joined the march the same set of questions in order to investigate their own demands, for comparison.

With respect to respondents' perceived demands of the general public who marched, of the four possibilities provided, as high as 84% (83.8%) of them agreed that people marched because the overall performance of the government was disappointing (Table 13). Besides, two-thirds of them agreed that people marched to call for a change in SARG's leadership (66.7%, Table 15), and the same proportion opposed the legislation for Article 23 (66.1%, Table 12). Meanwhile, 48% (48.0%) agreed with the idea that "people marched to call for Tung Chee-hwa's stepping down" (Table 14).

Table 12 - [Q6] What do you think the people who joined the July 1 Demonstration were asking for? I am referring to the general opinion of the people who marched, not yours. I will ask for your own opinion later. I will read out a number of possibilities for you to choose from. First, people marched to oppose the legislation for Article 23. Do you agree or disagree with this statement? (Interviewers to probe strength of opinion)
   4-5/7/2003
   Frequency  Percentage
  Very much agreed  251  )   21.6  ) 
  Quite agreed  516  ) 767   44.5  ) 66.1 
  Half-half  161     13.9   
  Quite disagreed  134  )   11.5  ) 
  Very much disagreed  24  ) 158   2.1  ) 13.6 
  Don't know / hard to say  74     6.4   
  Total  1,160     100   
  Base  1,160        
  Missing case(s)  0        

Table 13 - [Q7] Second, people marched because the overall performance of the government was disappointing. Do you agree or disagree with this statement? (Interviewers to probe strength of opinion)
   4-5/7/2003
   Frequency  Percentage
  Very much agreed  415  )   35.8  ) 
  Quite agreed  557  ) 972   48  ) 83.8 
  Half-half  54     4.6   
  Quite disagreed  55  )   4.8  ) 
  Very much disagreed  12  ) 67   1.1  ) 5.9 
  Don't know / hard to say  66     5.7   
  Total  1,160     100   
  Base  1,160        
  Missing case(s)  0        

Table 14 - [Q8] Third, people marched to call for Tung Chee-hwa's stepping down. Do you agree or disagree with this statement? (Interviewers to probe strength of opinion)
   4-5/7/2003
   Frequency  Percentage
  Very much agreed  225  )   19.5  ) 
  Quite agreed  330  ) 555   28.5  ) 48.0 
  Half-half  176     15.2   
  Quite disagreed  246  )   21.3  ) 
  Very much disagreed  40  ) 286   3.5  ) 24.8 
  Don't know / hard to say  139     12   
  Total  1,156     100   
  Base  1,160        
  Missing case(s)  4        

Table 15 - [Q9] Fourth, people marched to call for a change in SARG's leadership. Do you agree or disagree with this statement? (Interviewers to probe strength of opinion)
   4-5/7/2003
   Frequency  Percentage
  Very much agreed  251  )   21.8  ) 
  Quite agreed  516  ) 767   44.9  ) 66.7 
  Half-half  99     8.6   
  Quite disagreed  124  )   10.8  ) 
  Very much disagreed  17  ) 141   1.5  ) 12.3 
  Don't know / hard to say  144     12.5   
  Total  1,150     100   
  Base  1,160        
  Missing case(s)  10        

As far as the opinions of the 260 respondents who joined the march are concerned (Table 16), as high as 93% said they took to the streets to express their disappointment towards the overall performance of the SARG (92.9%, accounted for 20.9% of the total sample, Table 18). Eighty-five percentage of this sub-sample marched because they were against the legislation of Article 23 (85.3%, accounted for 19.1% of the total sample, Table 17). Besides, 84% of this sub-sample marched to call for a change in SARG's leadship (83.6%, accounted for 18.7% of the total sample, Table 20), and 60% marched to call for Tung Chee-hwa's stepping down (59.8%, accounted for 13.4% of the total sample, Table 19).

Table 16 - [Q10] Did you join the July 1 Demonstration against the Article 23 legislation, including just gathering around the Victoria Park, or joining part of the demonstration?
   4-5/7/2003
   Frequency  Percentage
  Yes  260   22.5 
  No  896   77.5 
  Total  1,157   100 
  Base  1,160    
  Missing case(s)  3    

Table 17 - [Q11] 【Only for those who joined the July 1 Demonstration】 Then, could you tell us what you were asking for by joining the demonstration? I will read out 4 possibilities. First, you marched to oppose the legislation for Article 23. Do you agree or disagree with this statement? (Interviewers to probe strength of opinion)
   Frequency  % of sub-sample （Base=260）  % of total sample（Base=1,160）
  Very much agreed  141  )   54.2  )   12.2  ) 
  Quite agreed  81  ) 222   31.1  ) 85.3   7  ) 19.1 
  Half-half  15     5.9     1.3   
  Quite disagreed  14  )   5.3  )   1.2  ) 
  Very much disagreed  5  ) 19   1.9  ) 7.2   0.4  ) 1.6 
  Don't know / hard to say  4     1.5     0.3   
  Total  260     100        
  Base  260             
  Missing case(s)  0             

Table 18 - [Q12]【Only for those who joined the July 1 Demonstration】Second, you marched because the overall performance of the government was disappointing. Do you agree or disagree with this statement? (Interviewers to probe strength of opinion)
   Frequency  % of sub-sample （Base=260）  % of total sample（Base=1,160）
  Very much agreed  161  )   61.9  )   13.9  ) 
  Quite agreed  81  ) 242   31  ) 92.9   7  ) 20.9 
  Half-half  7     2.8     0.6   
  Quite disagreed  5  )   2.1  )   0.4  ) 
  Very much disagreed  1  ) 6   0.4  ) 2.5   0.1  ) 0.5 
  Don't know / hard to say  5     1.8     0.4   
  Total  260     100        
  Base  260             
  Missing case(s)  0             

Table 19 - [Q13] 【Only for those who joined the July 1 Demonstration】Third, you marched to call for Tung Chee-hwa's stepping down. Do you agree or disagree with this statement? (Interviewers to probe strength of opinion)
   Frequency  % of sub-sample （Base=260）  % of total sample（Base=1,160）
  Very much agreed  89  )   34.4  )   7.7  ) 
  Quite agreed  66  ) 155   25.4  ) 59.8   5.7  ) 13.4 
  Half-half  33     12.7     2.8   
  Quite disagreed  57  )   22.2  )   4.9  ) 
  Very much disagreed  9  ) 66   3.6  ) 25.8   0.8  ) 5.7 
  Don't know / hard to say  4     1.7     0.3   
  Total  259     100        
  Base  260             
  Missing case(s)  1             

Table 20 - [Q14] 【Only for those who joined the July 1 Demonstration】 Fourth, you marched to call for a change in SARG's leadership. Do you agree or disagree with this statement? (Interviewers to probe strength of opinion)
   Frequency  % of sub-sample （Base=260）  % of total sample（Base=1,160）
  Very much agreed  114  )   44  )   9.8  ) 
  Quite agreed  103  ) 217   39.6  ) 83.6   8.9  ) 18.7 
  Half-half  10     3.9     0.9   
  Quite disagreed  22  )   8.5  )   1.9  ) 
  Very much disagreed  2  ) 24   0.6  ) 9.1   0.2  ) 2.1 
  Don't know / hard to say  9     3.4     0.8   
  Total  259     100        
  Base  260             
  Missing case(s)  1             

Table 21 - Demands of people who marched: summary table
   Agree Half-half Disagree Don't know / hard to say Base
  Opposing Article 23 legislation
  Perceived demand  66.1   13.9   13.6   6.4   1,160 
  Actual demand  85.3   5.9   7.2   1.5   260 
  The overall performance of the government is disappointing
  Perceived demand  83.8   4.6   5.9   5.7   1,160 
  Actual demand  92.9   2.8   2.5   1.8   260 
  Calling for Tung Chee-hwa's stepping down
  Perceived demand  48.0   15.2   24.8   12.0   1,156 
  Actual demand  59.8   12.7   25.8   1.7   259 
  Calling for a change in SARG's leadership
  Perceived demand  66.7   8.6   12.3   12.5   1,150 
  Actual demand  83.6   3.9   9.1   3.4   259 

Summary

This survey has shown that, between July 4 and 5, 2003, people's rating of CE Tung Chee-hwa was 35.4 marks, representing a drastic drop of 8.3 marks from that of mid-June. Besides, if a general election of the Chief Executive were to be held the following day, and the people had the right to vote, 71% of the respondents would not vote for Tung Chee-hwa, as contrast to 13% who would vote for him. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the SARG, results revealed that 65% of the respondents were dissatisfied. Both negative figures have reached their record highs.

After the government made three amendments to the proposed legislation after the "July 1 Demonstration", 54% still opposed to passing the bill on July 9, 23% supported it, 7% said "half-half", while 16% failed to give a definite answer.

Results also revealed that 5% of the respondents would express excitement if the legislation for Article 23 was passed, another 30% would accept the reality, while those who would continue the struggle in compliance with the law and by "civil disobedience" accounted for 40% and 16% respectively.

With respect to the protestors' demands, as high as 84% agreed that they showed up because the overall performance of the government was disappointing. Other perceived demands in descending order were "calling for a change in SARG's leadership", "opposing the legislation for Article 23", and "calling for Tung Chee-hwa's stepping down".

Of the 260 respondents who joined the march, 93% said they took to the streets to express their disappointment of the overall performance of the SARG. Other demands in descending order were "opposing the legislation of Article 23", "calling for a change in SARG's leadship" and "calling for Tung Chee-hwa's stepping down".