Summary of FindingsBack


	The changes in people's support towards CE and the SAR Government after the "July 1 Demonstration" and the government's three amendments

	One question of the study was to ask respondents to rate, using a scale of 0-100, their extent of support to the Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa, with 0 indicating absolutely not supportive, 100 indicating absolutely supportive and 50 indicating half-half. Results showed that, after the "July 1 Demonstration" and the government's amendments made to the legislation of Article 23, the latest rating of CE Tung Chee-hwa registered was 35.4 marks (Table 4). The figure was more or less the same with that registered right after the "July 1 Demonstration" and before the government's amending the bill of Article 23. However, it is noteworthy that the figure has declined dramatically by 8.3 marks after the demonstration from that of mid-June (Table 5).

Table 4 - [Q1] Please use a scale of 0-100 to rate your extent of support to the Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa, with 0 indicating absolutely not supportive, 100 indicating absolutely supportive and 50 indicating half-half. How would you rate the Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa?

	2-4/7/2003		5/7/2003
	Frequency	Percentage	Frequency	Percentage
0-9	195	19.1	180	18.9
10-19	45	4.4	40	4.1
20-29	79	7.7	66	7
30-39	175	17.2	160	16.8
40-49	79	15.7	149	15.7
50	160	20.3	231	24.2
51-60	207	7.4	51	5.3
61-70	76	3.8	35	3.6
71-80	39	1.8	18	1.9
81-90	8	0.8	8	0.8
91-100	19	1.9	19	2
Total	1,020	100	955	100
No of raters	1,020		955
Base	1,046		1,022^
Mean	35		35.4
Standard error	0.74		0.76
Missing case(s)	26		67

^ A small number of cases were dropped from the base of this question because it was not included on the first day of the survey.

Table 5 - Trend of CE Tung Chee-hwa's rating

Date of survey	Supporting rate	Standard error	Total sample	No of raters	Recognition rate
5/7/03	35.4	0.8	1,022	955	93.4
2-4/7/03	35.0	0.7	1,046	1,020	97.5
13-18/6/03	43.7	0.7	1,043	991	95.0
3-6/6/03	45.7	0.7	1,027	975	94.9
15-20/5/03	44.2	0.7	1,067	1,032	96.7
2-7/5/03	41.2	0.7	1,008	957	94.9
16-23/4/03	39.5	0.7	1,021	974	95.4
4-9/4/03	41.3	0.7	1,066	1,024	96.1
17-19/3/03	43.9	0.6	1,068	1,018	95.3
12-13/3/03	43.8	0.7	1,040	986	94.8
5/3/03	42.8	0.7	1,047	962	91.9
1-4/3/03	43.9	0.7	1,035	986	95.3
14-18/2/03	45.4	0.7	1,045	995	95.2
4-7/2/03	45.6	0.7	1,020	963	94.4
23-28/1/03	45.5	0.7	1,050	991	94.4
20-23/1/03	45.2	0.7	1,049	1,016	96.9
8-9/1/03	47.3	0.7	1,259	1,188	94.4
2-7/1/03	46.6	0.7	1,063	1,029	96.8
13-18/12/02	47.0	0.7	1,026	971	94.6
2-6/12/02	48.0	0.7	1,063	1,026	96.5
13-20/11/02	47.4	0.7	1,058	1,011	95.6
1-5/11/02	47.1	0.7	1,062	1,013	95.4
13-16/10/02	49.2	0.7	1,028	971	94.5
2-7/10/02	49.0	0.7	1,006	932	92.6
12-17/9/02	48.5	0.7	1,062	991	93.3
2-5/9/02	47.7	0.7	1,017	978	96.2
14-19/8/02	47.0	0.6	1,018	949	93.2
2-7/8/02	48.0	0.6	1,030	970	94.2
10-15/7/02	50.1	0.7	1,052	971	92.3
2-3/7/02	51.9	0.7	1,068	1,001	93.7

Chart 1 - Trend of CE Tung Chee-hwa's rating

Results also revealed that, if a general election of the Chief Executive were to be held the following day, and the people had the right to vote, 71% (70.9%) of the respondents would not vote for Tung Chee-hwa as the Chief Executive, 13% (13.1%) would, while 16% (15.9%) did not give a definite answer (Table 6). When compared to the findings of the tracking poll conducted by the research team in early June, the proportion of those who would not vote for Tung has significantly increased by 9 percentage points to reach its record high. On the other hand, a significant drop of 8 percentage points was observed for the supportive votes. On a macro level, the proportion of those who would not vote for Tung has fluctuated upwards from 36% (35.8%) since February last year, and has been hovering at the level of over 60% since this year. After the "July 1 Demonstration", the figure has even broken the level of 70% (Table 7).

Table 6 - [Q2] If a general election of the Chief Executive were to be held tomorrow, and you had the right to vote, would you vote for Tung Chee-hwa?

	4-5/7/2003
	Frequency	Percentage
Yes	152	13.1
No	820	70.9
Don't know / hard to say	184	15.9
Total	1,156	100
Base	1,160
Missing case(s)	4

Table 7 - Trend of hypothetical voting on Tung Chee-hwa as the Chief Executive

Date of survey	Yes	No	Don't know / hard to say	Total
4-5/7/03	13.1	70.9	15.9	100.0
3-6/6/03	20.7	61.7	17.7	100.0
12-13/3/03	17.0	68.1	14.9	100.0
1-4/3/03	20.4	64.0	15.7	100.0
20-23/1/03	21.2	61.3	17.5	100.0
2-6/12/02	22.9	55.5	21.6	100.0
2-5/9/02	25.7	55.2	19.1	100.0
10-15/7/02	28.8	51.7	19.6	100.0
2-3/7/02	31.5	46.9	21.6	100.0
17-19/6/02	30.6	51.5	17.9	100.0
4-5/6/02	32.3	45.7	22.0	100.0
14-16/5/02	35.3	43.9	20.8	100.0
2-7/5/02	39.4	39.7	20.9	100.0
15-17/4/02	37.5	42.0	20.5	100.0
2-8/4/02	37.8	39.5	22.8	100.0
12-13/3/02	43.7	39.9	16.4	100.0
1-5/3/02	41.9	38.7	19.4	100.0
18-21/2/02	43.1	37.1	19.8	100.0
4-6/2/02	47.0	35.8	17.2	100.0

Chart 2 - Trend of hypothetical voting on Tung Chee-hwa as the Chief Executive

With respect to people's appraisal of the overall performance of the SAR Government, results showed that 65% (65.2%) were dissatisfied, 9% (9.2%) were satisfied, and 22% (21.6%) said "half-half" (Table 8). When compared to the tracking poll findings obtained in mid-June, the dissatisfaction figure has surged for 12 percentage points to set a historic high, whereas a significant decrease of 8 percentage points was recorded for the satisfaction level (Table 9b).

Table 8 - [Q3] Are you satisfied with the overall performance of the HKSAR Government? (Interviewers to probe strength of opinion)

	4-5/7/2003
	Frequency		Percentage
Very satisfied	21	)	1.8	)
Quite satisfied	85	) 106	7.4	) 9.2
Half-half	250		21.6
Not quite satisfied	391	)	33.8	)
Very dissatisfied	364	) 755	31.4	) 65.2
Don't know / hard to say	47		4.1
Total	1,158		100
Base	1,160
Missing case(s)	2

Table 9a - People's Satisfaction with the HKSAR Government

Date of survey	Very satisfied	Quite satisfied	Half-half	Not quite satisfied	Very dissatisfied	Don't know / hard to say	Total
4-5/7/03	1.8	7.4	21.6	33.8	31.4	4.1	100.0
13-18/6/03	1.8	15.1	25.5	33.5	20.0	4.0	100.0
15-20/5/03	2.3	15.8	26.4	34.4	18.1	3.0	100.0
16-23/4/03	0.3	11.3	24.0	37.8	23.0	3.5	100.0
17-19/3/03	0.3	11.2	24.9	39.3	19.7	4.5	100.0
14-18/2/03	0.6	14.0	25.6	39.5	16.7	3.5	100.0
20-23/1/03	1.0	18.3	27.0	36.6	14.0	3.1	100.0
13-18/12/02	1.3	15.6	30.2	34.6	13.8	4.4	100.0
13-20/11/02	1.4	15.3	27.9	35.7	15.1	4.6	100.0
13-16/10/02	0.8	17.9	28.0	39.1	10.7	3.5	100.0
12-17/9/02	1.0	15.0	29.3	39.0	11.4	4.3	100.0
14-19/8/02	0.9	14.6	26.4	41.4	10.7	5.9	100.0
2-3/7/02	0.6	23.3	26.7	37.3	6.1	6.0	100.0
4-5/6/02	1.3	23.1	25.9	38.8	4.8	6.1	100.0
2-7/5/02	0.4	26.6	30.2	32.4	5.1	5.3	100.0
2-8/4/02	1.4	24.4	33.3	29.8	5.9	5.1	100.0
1-5/3/02	1.1	21.2	29.8	35.9	6.3	5.6	100.0
4-6/2/02	1.8	24.7	32.1	30.4	6.4	4.5	100.0
2-6/1/02	1.6	21.9	36.6	29.5	7.9	2.6	100.0
7-9/12/01	1.3	18.9	29.6	33.4	7.9	8.8	100.0
1-5/11/01	1.2	17.4	29.4	35.0	12.5	4.5	100.0
5-8/10/01	0.7	16.7	30.0	33.6	14.1	4.9	100.0
3-7/9/01	0.6	14.9	31.9	36.1	11.2	5.3	100.0
1-3/8/01	1.2	25.3	30.3	30.6	8.9	3.6	100.0
3-9/7/01	0.9	21.8	34.0	31.8	8.5	3.0	100.0

Table 9b - People's Satisfaction with the HKSAR Government（Collapsed data）

Date of survey	Satisfied	Half-half	Dissatisfied	Don't know / hard to say	Total
4-5/7/03	9.2	21.6	65.2	4.1	100.0
13-18/6/03	16.9	25.5	53.5	4.0	100.0
15-20/5/03	18.1	26.4	52.5	3.0	100.0
16-23/4/03	11.6	24.0	60.8	3.5	100.0
17-19/3/03	11.5	24.9	59.0	4.5	100.0
14-18/2/03	14.6	25.6	56.2	3.5	100.0
20-23/1/03	19.3	27.0	50.6	3.1	100.0
13-18/12/02	16.9	30.2	48.4	4.4	100.0
13-20/11/02	16.7	27.9	50.8	4.6	100.0
13-16/10/02	18.7	28.0	49.8	3.5	100.0
12-17/9/02	16.0	29.3	50.4	4.3	100.0
14-19/8/02	15.5	26.4	52.1	5.9	100.0
2-3/7/02	23.9	26.7	43.4	6.0	100.0
4-5/6/02	24.4	25.9	43.6	6.1	100.0
2-7/5/02	27.0	30.2	37.5	5.3	100.0
2-8/4/02	25.8	33.3	35.7	5.1	100.0
1-5/3/02	22.3	29.8	42.2	5.6	100.0
4-6/2/02	26.5	32.1	36.8	4.5	100.0
2-6/1/02	23.5	36.6	37.4	2.6	100.0
7-9/12/01	20.2	29.6	41.3	8.8	100.0
1-5/11/01	18.6	29.4	47.5	4.5	100.0
5-8/10/01	17.4	30.0	47.7	4.9	100.0
3-7/9/01	15.5	31.9	47.3	5.3	100.0
1-3/8/01	26.5	30.3	39.5	3.6	100.0
3-9/7/01	22.7	34.0	40.3	3.0	100.0

Chart 3 - People's Satisfaction with the HKSAR Government

Whether people accepted the government's concessions

After the "July 1 Demonstration", the government made three amendments to the proposed legislation for Article 23, including the removal of the proscription of groups affiliated with bodies banned on the mainland, the introduction of public interest as a defence in connection with the unlawful disclosure of certain official information, as well as the deletion of the provision giving the police powers to conduct home searches without a court warrant during emergency investigations. Results indicated that, after the government made these concessions, 54% (53.6%) of the respondents still opposed passing the legislation on July 9, 23% (23.0%) supported it, 7% (7.4%) said "half-half", while 16% (15.9%) did not give a definite answer (Table 10).

Table 10 - [Q4] Regarding Article 23 of the Basic Law, after the July 1 demonstration, the government will now press ahead with tabling the Bill before Legco on July 9, after making the following amendments: The provision covering the proscription of groups affiliated with bodies banned on the mainland will be deleted; public interest will be added as a defence in connection with the unlawful disclosure of certain official information; and the provision giving the police powers to conduct searches without a court warrant during emergency investigations will be removed from the legislation. Do you support or oppose the government's passing the amended bill on July 9? (Interviewers to probe strength of opinion)

	4-5/7/2003
	Frequency		Percentage
Very supportive	44	)	4.3	)
Quite supportive	189	) 233	18.7	) 23.0
Half-half	75		7.4
Quite opposed	295	)	29	)
Very opposed	250	) 545	24.6	) 53.6
Don't know / hard to say	162		15.9
Total	1,014		100
Base	1,022^
Missing case(s)	8

^ A small number of cases were dropped from the base of this question because it was not included on the first day of the survey.

When prompted with different options, results revealed that 5% (4.6%) of the respondents would express support or excitement if the legislation for Article 23 was passed, 30% (30.2%) would accept the reality, 40% (39.7%) would continue the struggle in compliance with the law, while 16% (16.1%) opted for continuing the struggle by "civil disobedience". Meanwhile, 9% (9.4%) did not give a definite answer (Table 11).

Table 11 - [Q5] What do you think the Hong Kong people should do if the legislation for Article 23 is passed?

	4-5/7/2003
	Frequency	Percentage
Express support or excitement	53	4.6
Accept the reality	348	30.2
Continue the struggle in compliance with the law	457	39.7
Continue the struggle by civil disobedience	186	16.1
Don't know / hard to say	108	9.4
Total	1,152	100
Base	1,160
Missing case(s)	8

People's latest demands

This survey attempted to measure the demands of the people who joined the demonstration on July 1 from two perspectives. Respondents were first asked to give their perceived demands of the Hong Kong people who marched, putting aside their own views. The survey then continued to ask those who actually joined the march the same set of questions in order to investigate their own demands, for comparison.

With respect to respondents' perceived demands of the general public who marched, of the four possibilities provided, as high as 84% (83.8%) of them agreed that people marched because the overall performance of the government was disappointing (Table 13). Besides, two-thirds of them agreed that people marched to call for a change in SARG's leadership (66.7%, Table 15), and the same proportion opposed the legislation for Article 23 (66.1%, Table 12). Meanwhile, 48% (48.0%) agreed with the idea that "people marched to call for Tung Chee-hwa's stepping down" (Table 14).

Table 12 - [Q6] What do you think the people who joined the July 1 Demonstration were asking for? I am referring to the general opinion of the people who marched, not yours. I will ask for your own opinion later. I will read out a number of possibilities for you to choose from. First, people marched to oppose the legislation for Article 23. Do you agree or disagree with this statement? (Interviewers to probe strength of opinion)

	4-5/7/2003
	Frequency		Percentage
Very much agreed	251	)	21.6	)
Quite agreed	516	) 767	44.5	) 66.1
Half-half	161		13.9
Quite disagreed	134	)	11.5	)
Very much disagreed	24	) 158	2.1	) 13.6
Don't know / hard to say	74		6.4
Total	1,160		100
Base	1,160
Missing case(s)	0

Table 13 - [Q7] Second, people marched because the overall performance of the government was disappointing. Do you agree or disagree with this statement? (Interviewers to probe strength of opinion)

	4-5/7/2003
	Frequency		Percentage
Very much agreed	415	)	35.8	)
Quite agreed	557	) 972	48	) 83.8
Half-half	54		4.6
Quite disagreed	55	)	4.8	)
Very much disagreed	12	) 67	1.1	) 5.9
Don't know / hard to say	66		5.7
Total	1,160		100
Base	1,160
Missing case(s)	0

Table 14 - [Q8] Third, people marched to call for Tung Chee-hwa's stepping down. Do you agree or disagree with this statement? (Interviewers to probe strength of opinion)

	4-5/7/2003
	Frequency		Percentage
Very much agreed	225	)	19.5	)
Quite agreed	330	) 555	28.5	) 48.0
Half-half	176		15.2
Quite disagreed	246	)	21.3	)
Very much disagreed	40	) 286	3.5	) 24.8
Don't know / hard to say	139		12
Total	1,156		100
Base	1,160
Missing case(s)	4

Table 15 - [Q9] Fourth, people marched to call for a change in SARG's leadership. Do you agree or disagree with this statement? (Interviewers to probe strength of opinion)

	4-5/7/2003
	Frequency		Percentage
Very much agreed	251	)	21.8	)
Quite agreed	516	) 767	44.9	) 66.7
Half-half	99		8.6
Quite disagreed	124	)	10.8	)
Very much disagreed	17	) 141	1.5	) 12.3
Don't know / hard to say	144		12.5
Total	1,150		100
Base	1,160
Missing case(s)	10

As far as the opinions of the 260 respondents who joined the march are concerned (Table 16), as high as 93% said they took to the streets to express their disappointment towards the overall performance of the SARG (92.9%, accounted for 20.9% of the total sample, Table 18). Eighty-five percentage of this sub-sample marched because they were against the legislation of Article 23 (85.3%, accounted for 19.1% of the total sample, Table 17). Besides, 84% of this sub-sample marched to call for a change in SARG's leadship (83.6%, accounted for 18.7% of the total sample, Table 20), and 60% marched to call for Tung Chee-hwa's stepping down (59.8%, accounted for 13.4% of the total sample, Table 19).

Table 16 - [Q10] Did you join the July 1 Demonstration against the Article 23 legislation, including just gathering around the Victoria Park, or joining part of the demonstration?

	4-5/7/2003
	Frequency	Percentage
Yes	260	22.5
No	896	77.5
Total	1,157	100
Base	1,160
Missing case(s)	3

Table 17 - [Q11] 【Only for those who joined the July 1 Demonstration】 Then, could you tell us what you were asking for by joining the demonstration? I will read out 4 possibilities. First, you marched to oppose the legislation for Article 23. Do you agree or disagree with this statement? (Interviewers to probe strength of opinion)

	Frequency		% of sub-sample （Base=260）		% of total sample（Base=1,160）
Very much agreed	141	)	54.2	)	12.2	)
Quite agreed	81	) 222	31.1	) 85.3	7	) 19.1
Half-half	15		5.9		1.3
Quite disagreed	14	)	5.3	)	1.2	)
Very much disagreed	5	) 19	1.9	) 7.2	0.4	) 1.6
Don't know / hard to say	4		1.5		0.3
Total	260		100
Base	260
Missing case(s)	0

Table 18 - [Q12]【Only for those who joined the July 1 Demonstration】Second, you marched because the overall performance of the government was disappointing. Do you agree or disagree with this statement? (Interviewers to probe strength of opinion)

	Frequency		% of sub-sample （Base=260）		% of total sample（Base=1,160）
Very much agreed	161	)	61.9	)	13.9	)
Quite agreed	81	) 242	31	) 92.9	7	) 20.9
Half-half	7		2.8		0.6
Quite disagreed	5	)	2.1	)	0.4	)
Very much disagreed	1	) 6	0.4	) 2.5	0.1	) 0.5
Don't know / hard to say	5		1.8		0.4
Total	260		100
Base	260
Missing case(s)	0

Table 19 - [Q13] 【Only for those who joined the July 1 Demonstration】Third, you marched to call for Tung Chee-hwa's stepping down. Do you agree or disagree with this statement? (Interviewers to probe strength of opinion)

	Frequency		% of sub-sample （Base=260）		% of total sample（Base=1,160）
Very much agreed	89	)	34.4	)	7.7	)
Quite agreed	66	) 155	25.4	) 59.8	5.7	) 13.4
Half-half	33		12.7		2.8
Quite disagreed	57	)	22.2	)	4.9	)
Very much disagreed	9	) 66	3.6	) 25.8	0.8	) 5.7
Don't know / hard to say	4		1.7		0.3
Total	259		100
Base	260
Missing case(s)	1

Table 20 - [Q14] 【Only for those who joined the July 1 Demonstration】 Fourth, you marched to call for a change in SARG's leadership. Do you agree or disagree with this statement? (Interviewers to probe strength of opinion)

	Frequency		% of sub-sample （Base=260）		% of total sample（Base=1,160）
Very much agreed	114	)	44	)	9.8	)
Quite agreed	103	) 217	39.6	) 83.6	8.9	) 18.7
Half-half	10		3.9		0.9
Quite disagreed	22	)	8.5	)	1.9	)
Very much disagreed	2	) 24	0.6	) 9.1	0.2	) 2.1
Don't know / hard to say	9		3.4		0.8
Total	259		100
Base	260
Missing case(s)	1

Table 21 - Demands of people who marched: summary table

	Agree	Half-half	Disagree	Don't know / hard to say	Base
Opposing Article 23 legislation
Perceived demand	66.1	13.9	13.6	6.4	1,160
Actual demand	85.3	5.9	7.2	1.5	260
The overall performance of the government is disappointing
Perceived demand	83.8	4.6	5.9	5.7	1,160
Actual demand	92.9	2.8	2.5	1.8	260
Calling for Tung Chee-hwa's stepping down
Perceived demand	48.0	15.2	24.8	12.0	1,156
Actual demand	59.8	12.7	25.8	1.7	259
Calling for a change in SARG's leadership
Perceived demand	66.7	8.6	12.3	12.5	1,150
Actual demand	83.6	3.9	9.1	3.4	259

Summary

This survey has shown that, between July 4 and 5, 2003, people's rating of CE Tung Chee-hwa was 35.4 marks, representing a drastic drop of 8.3 marks from that of mid-June. Besides, if a general election of the Chief Executive were to be held the following day, and the people had the right to vote, 71% of the respondents would not vote for Tung Chee-hwa, as contrast to 13% who would vote for him. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the SARG, results revealed that 65% of the respondents were dissatisfied. Both negative figures have reached their record highs.

After the government made three amendments to the proposed legislation after the "July 1 Demonstration", 54% still opposed to passing the bill on July 9, 23% supported it, 7% said "half-half", while 16% failed to give a definite answer.

Results also revealed that 5% of the respondents would express excitement if the legislation for Article 23 was passed, another 30% would accept the reality, while those who would continue the struggle in compliance with the law and by "civil disobedience" accounted for 40% and 16% respectively.

With respect to the protestors' demands, as high as 84% agreed that they showed up because the overall performance of the government was disappointing. Other perceived demands in descending order were "calling for a change in SARG's leadership", "opposing the legislation for Article 23", and "calling for Tung Chee-hwa's stepping down".

Of the 260 respondents who joined the march, 93% said they took to the streets to express their disappointment of the overall performance of the SARG. Other demands in descending order were "opposing the legislation of Article 23", "calling for a change in SARG's leadship" and "calling for Tung Chee-hwa's stepping down".