HKU POP SITE releases the findings on the Budget follow-up surveyBack

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the findings of the Budget follow-up survey. POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly.

The date and time of our next release will be March 20, 2003, Thursday, at 2 pm, the latest findings on people's ethnic identity will be released. Then, on March 25, 2003, Tuesday, at 2pm, the latest rating of CE Tung Chee-hwa, people's satisfaction with CE's policy direction, their appraisal of the performance of the HKSAR Government and members of the Legislative Council in general will be released.

In the past many years, POP has conducted instant polls on the first one or two days after the head of the government delivered his Policy Address, or after the Financial Secretary delivered his Budget Speech. Such instant polls, which measure people's instant reaction to the policies, would be followed weeks later by our follow-up surveys, which measure people's more matured reaction. We believe this is the correct way to study public opinion on these issues. Although this year's discussion on the Budget has been overshadowed by the issue of FS Antony Leung Kam-chung's performance and conduct, we have proceeded with our follow-up survey and comparative analyses as usual.

Between March 12 and 13, 2003, after FS Antony Leung's alleged conflict-of-interest incident unfolded, but before CE Tung Chee-hwa issued his written criticism, POP conducted a random telephone survey which successfully interviewed 1,040 Cantonese speakers in Hong Kong of age 18 or above, to measure people's more matured reaction towards the Budget, as well as any changes in their ratings of CE, CS and FS. Results showed that, the latest rating of CE Tung Chee-hwa was 43.8 marks, an increase of 1.0 mark from that of early March (March 3-5), which was not statistically significant. CS Donald Tsang Yam-kuen's latest rating was 60.0 marks, representing a significant increase of 3.1 marks from that of early March. On the other hand, the latest rating of FS Antony Leung Kam-chung has dropped significantly by 4.9 marks to 44.9 marks to set its new record low.

Besides, findings of the follow-up survey indicated that 60% of the respondents were dissatisfied with the government's strategy in monetary arrangement, 9% were satisfied, 16% said "half-half", while another 16% did not give a definite answer. Compared to the results of the instant poll conducted on March 5, the dissatisfaction figure has surged by 14 percentage points.

With respect to the Budget, after excluding respondents who said they had not heard of it, 13% were satisfied, 65% were dissatisfied and 16% said "half-half". The dissatisfaction figure has surged by 16 percentage points compared to that of the instant poll.

As regards the specific proposals suggested by FS Antony Leung for "raising revenue", which included increasing the standard rate of tax by 1 percentage point to 16% by stages, increasing the profits tax rate by 1.5 percentage points to 17.5% by stages, increasing the property tax rate by 1 percentage point to 16% by stages, raising the Air Passenger Departure Tax from $80 to $120, and stop freezing government fees and charges, 37% of the respondents of the follow-up survey agreed with such proposed measures in general, whereas 48% disagreed. The negative figure has significantly increased by 7 percentage points from that of the instant poll.

As for the key measures for "cutting expenditure" proposed by the Financial Secretary, which included reducing the establishment of the civil service by 10%, reducing the social security payment by 11%, as well as a 6% pay-cut for civil servants implemented in different phases, 47% agreed to these measures in general, which was a significant drop of 8 percentage points from that of the instant poll, whereas 39% disagreed.

The Financial Secretary pointed out in his Budget that it would be necessary to raise additional revenue of $20 billion in the coming 4 years, but only measures to raise $14 billion were presented this year. Results of our follow-up survey indicated that 17% of the respondents were confident that the government would be able to handle the remaining task of raising another $6 billion properly, whilst 66% were pessimistic. The negative figure has significantly increased by 7 percentage points when compared to that of the instant poll.

In terms of Antony Leung's analysis of the economy, 20% agreed with him that it could now be both "the worst and the best of times" for Hong Kong's economy, 66% disagreed. These results were similar to those of the instant poll. When asked if they thought the government could achieve consolidated and operating balances by 2006/07, only 11% believed that the government could do so, 70% took the opposite view. The negative figure has increased significantly by 8 percentage points from that of the instant poll.

Finally, 50% of the respondents considered Hong Kong's tax system to be fair, 37% considered it unfair. As for the distribution of wealth in Hong Kong, 19% considered the distribution reasonable, 65% considered it unreasonable. Figures obtained from these two items were not too different from those of the instant poll.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, made the following observations on the latest findings: "FS Antony Leung's alleged conflict-of-interest incident obviously has a negative effect on people's recent reaction towards the Budget. In the past, differences between the results obtained in instant and follow-up surveys were normally reflective of changing public opinion on policy matters, whereas this year's follow-up survey results were apparently affected by Leung's own faults, pushing up practically all negative figures. Leung's own popularity rating dropped by 4.9 marks in just one week, while that of Tsang increased by 3.1 marks, and that of Tung slightly increased by 1.0 mark. This showed that during the early phase of this incident, public anger was only focused on Leung, and the public seemed to have approved Tung's verbal admonition to Leung. However, the effect of Tung's subsequent written criticism of Leung, and that of Leung's performance in the Legco meeting, on the popularity of these people are yet to be seen."

The new poll released in the POP Site today is a random telephone survey conducted by interviewers, targeting at Cantonese speakers in Hong Kong of age 18 or above. The sample size of the survey is 1,040 respondents. At 95% confidence level, the sampling errors of the ratings of CE, CS and FS are plus/minus 1.4, 1.0 and 1.2 marks correspondingly, while that of other percentages is less than plus/minus 3 percentage points. The meaning of "95% confidence level" is that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.