HKU POP SITE releases the latest ratings of CE Tung Chee-hwa and Principal Officials under the accountability systemBack

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest ratings of CE Tung Chee-hwa and Principal Officials under the accountability system. POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. According to this schedule, the date and time of our next release will be March 18, 2003, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest findings of the Budget follow-up survey will be released.

Between March 1 and 4, 2003, POP conducted a random telephone survey which successfully interviewed 1,035 Cantonese speakers in Hong Kong of age 18 or above, to measure people's support ratings of the CE and Principal Officials under the accountability system before the announcement of the Budget. Then, on the night of March 5, after the Financial Secretary delivered his Second Budget, POP again conducted a random telephone survey and interviewed 1,047 Cantonese speakers in Hong Kong of age 18 or above, to measure people's instant reactions towards the Budget, as well as any changes in their ratings of CE, CS and FS. Findings obtained from the Budget instant poll have already been released last Thursday, while today's release will focus on the popularity ratings of the Directors of Bureaux prior to the announcement of the Budget.

According to the results obtained in March 1-4, among the Directors of Bureaux, the most popular official remained to be Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao Sau-tung, attaining 61.8 marks, leading with quite a wide margin from the rest. Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip Shu-kwan and Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food Yeoh Eng-kiong ranked 2nd and 3rd, with popularity ratings of 54.1 and 53.0 marks respectively. Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li Kwok-cheung, Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology Henry Tang Ying-yen, Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen Ming-yeung and Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho Chi-ping ranked 4th to 7th, attaining 52.4, 51.1, 50.9 and 50.2 marks correspondingly. Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong Wing-ping and Secretary for Security Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee ranked from 8th to 9th, attaining 49.4 and 49.0 marks respectively. Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma Si-hang ranked 10th and 11th, with popularity ratings of 46.9 and 42.0 marks respectively.

With respect to the popularity of CE and the 3 Secretaries, the pre-Budget rating of CE Tung Chee-hwa was 45.6 marks, that of CS Donald Tsang Yam-kuen was 57.2 marks, while those of FS Antony Leung Kam-chung and SJ Elsie Leung Oi-sie were 48.1 and 43.0 marks respectively. The last two Secretaries again set their record lows since POP started to monitor their popularity. After the announcement of the Budget, the ratings of Tung and Tsang both dropped to new historic lows of 42.8 and 56.9 marks respectively. On the other hand, the rating of Leung has risen to 49.8 marks, while SJ Elsie Leung Oi-sie was not included in the post-Budget survey.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, made the following analysis: "Between early February and early March, the popularity of the Directors of Bureaux as a whole has remained fairly stable. Apart from the significant drop of 1.8 marks in the rating of Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food Yeoh Eng-kiong, all other changes fell within statistical errors. However, noticeable fluctuations have been recorded for the ratings of CE and the 3 Secretaries. The popularity rating of CS Donald Tsang Yam-kuen surged after his announcement of the Population Policy, but quickly dropped again after the announcement of the Budget. CE Tung Chee-hwa's rating dropped 2 more marks, after hovering at the low level of 45 marks for quite a while, similar to the trend for that of SJ Elsie Leung Oi-sie. The popularity rating of FS Antony Leung Kam-chung has somewhat rebounded after he delivered his Second Budget, but his recent self-admitted indiscreet remarks and possibly discreditable act would undoubtedly pose a significant effect on his popularity, which will be revealed in our next release."

Both polls released in the POP Site today are random telephone surveys conducted by interviewers, targeting at Cantonese speakers in Hong Kong of age 18 or above. One survey was conducted between March 1 and 4, with a sample size of 1,035 respondents, while the other survey was conducted on March 5, with a sample size of 1,047 respondents. At 95% confidence level, the sampling errors of the latest ratings of CE, CS, FS and SJ are plus/minus 1.4, 1.0, 1.2, and 1.4 marks correspondingly, while those of the ratings of Directors of Bureaux are less than plus/minus 1.6 marks. The meaning of "95% confidence level" is that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.