HKU POP SITE releases a Policy Address follow-up surveyBack

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the findings of a Policy Address follow-up survey. POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. According to this schedule, the date and time of our next release will be February 11, 2003, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest ratings of CE Tung Chee-hwa and Principal Officials under the accountability system will be released.

In the past many years, POP has conducted instant polls on the first one or two days after the head of the government delivered his Policy Address, or after the Financial Secretary delivered his Budget Speech. Such instant polls, which measure people's instant reaction to the policies, would be followed weeks later by our follow-up surveys, which measure people's more matured reaction. We believe this is the correct way to study public opinion on these issues. Our instant poll this year has already been released quite some time ago, while the findings of the follow-up survey are released today.

This follow-up survey was conducted between January 23 and 28, 2003, 2 weeks after CE Tung Chee-hwa delivered his Policy Address. It was a random telephone survey which successfully interviewed 1,050 Cantonese speakers in Hong Kong of age 18 or above. Results showed that the rating of CE Tung Chee-hwa has slightly increased from the 45.2 marks registered in late January (January 20-23), to 45.5 marks, but the increase was not statistically significant. Besides, after excluding those respondents who said they had not heard of the Policy Address, 18% of the respondents said they were satisfied with the Policy Address, 52% were dissatisfied, while 31% said "half-half". When compared to the aggregate results of our instant poll (January 8-9), the dissatisfaction figure has drastically increased by 13 percentage points in 2 weeks' time, which was also the highest among the 6 Addresses delivered by Tung. The findings of the follow-up survey also revealed that only 13% of the respondents said their confidence in the future of Hong Kong had increased after hearing the Address, 34% said "no change", while 43% said their confidence has dropped, indicating a drastic increase of 18 percentage points from that of the instant poll.

Regarding people's satisfaction with CE's policy direction, the figures of the follow-up survey showed that 14% of the respondents were satisfied, 47% were dissatisfied, 20% said "half-half", while 19% did not give a definite answer. The dissatisfaction figure has significantly increased by 12 percentage points from that of the instant poll.

Besides, regarding the theme of this year's Policy Address "Capitalizing on Our Advantages: Revitalizing our Economy", in the follow-up survey, 55% of the respondents considered it to be in line with the current needs of society, 24% said it did not, 8% said "half-half", while 13% did not give a definite answer. As for revitalizing the economy, 14% of the respondents believed that CE's policies could revitalize the economy of Hong Kong, 6% said "half-half", whereas 59% said it could not. The negative figure has drastically increased by 24 percentage points when compared to that of the instant poll.

With respect to CE's analysis of Hong Kong's economy, results of the follow-up survey showed that 29% of the respondents agreed with him that the past successes of Hong Kong were attributable largely to the incompetitiveness of the Mainland economy, 47% disagreed, 7% said "half-half", while 16% did not give a definite answer. On the other hand, 46% of the respondents agreed to CE's point that the development of Hong Kong's economy has to be "backed by the Mainland", 38% did not agree, 9% said "half-half", while 8% did not give a definite answer.

Finally, 55% of the respondents were satisfied with the decision to take a 10% pay cut by CE and the Principal Officials with effect from 1 April, 2003, 33% were dissatisfied, 5% said "half-half", while 8% did not give a definite answer.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, has the following interpretations on the findings: "This year, not only has CE Tung postponed his Policy Address for 3 months, the government has also greatly shortened the period between the announcement of the Address and the LegCo debate on the issue. For this reason, our follow-up poll this year might be of much lesser value to the legislators. Nonetheless, we have proceeded with our surveys and comparative analyses as usual. The findings of our follow-up survey show that in spite of the new policy direction proposed by the CE, and the new way it was delivered, people's dissatisfaction has not dissipated, and their confidence remains low."

The new poll released in the POP Site today is a random telephone survey conducted by interviewers, targeting at Cantonese speakers in Hong Kong of age 18 or above. The sample size of the survey is 1,050 respondents. At 95% confidence level, the sampling error of the rating of CE is plus/minus 1.4 marks, that of most other percentages is less than plus/minus 3 percentage points, while that of percentages relating to people's satisfaction with the policy address is less than plus/minus 4 percentage points. The meaning of "95% confidence level" is that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not give further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.