HKU POP SITE releases the latest results of the four subjective social indicators, and a series of questions related to the rule of lawBack

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest results of the 4 subjective social indicators on Hong Kong's degree of "democracy", "freedom", "prosperity" and "stability", and the latest findings from a series of questions related to the rule of law. POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly.

As in previous years, POP has conducted a follow-up survey to measure people's more matured reactions to CE Tung Chee-hwa's Policy Address 2 weeks after he delivered it. The results of this follow-up survey will be released on the day after tomorrow (February 6, Thursday) at 2 pm. Then, on February 11, 2003, Tuesday, we will release the latest ratings of CE Tung Chee-hwa and Principal Officials under the accountability system.

Between January 20 and 23, 2003, POP conducted a random telephone survey which successfully interviewed 1,049 Cantonese speakers in Hong Kong of age 18 or above, to gauge people's ratings of the 4 subjective social indicators on Hong Kong's degree of "democracy", "freedom", "prosperity" and "stability". Results showed that, on a scale of 0-10, the latest score for freedom was 7.20 marks, which was significantly higher than those of the other 3 social indicators. Meanwhile, stability and democracy scored 6.40 and 6.16 marks respectively, while the latest score for prosperity was 5.72 marks. When compared to the corresponding figures registered in mid-October last year, a significant increase of 0.14 mark was recorded for both ratings of freedom and stability.

Regarding the rule of law in Hong Kong, on a scale of 0-10, the latest ratings of people's appraisal of Hong Kong's compliance with the rule of law and the impartiality of the courts both scored 6.66 marks, the latter dropped by 0.31 mark from mid-October last year. On the other hand, people's appraisal of the fairness of the judicial system was 6.44 marks. Results also showed that the latest popularity rating of Chief Justice Andrew Li Kowk-nang was 61.3 marks, indicating an increase of 1.6 marks from that of mid-October last year. CJ Li's rating was also higher than the ratings of all Principal Officials under the accountability system registered during the same period.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, has the following interpretations on the findings: "The popularity rating of the Chief Justice was higher than those of all Secretaries and Directors of Bureaux, indicating that people have more confidence in Hong Kong's judicial system than in its executive system. Besides, since the method and date of survey for the 4 core social indicators and the 3 indicators relating to the rule of law were the same, all of them could be compared on equal footing. According to our analysis, "prosperity" which once stood high after the handover has plunged almost into vanity after five-and-a-half years, "stability" also declined, while "democracy" remained unattractive as ever. It thus seems that only "freedom" and "the rule of law", long regarded by the people as two pillars of Hong Kong, have remained strong in the heart of the people. The latest scores were 7.20 and 6.66 marks respectively. It should, however, be noted that the indicator of "the rule of law" has experienced 2 dramatic plunges since the handover. The first one happened in mid-1999, after the interpretation of the Basic Law by the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress. The other one occurred in mid-2000, after the police arrested some university students for breaching the Public Order Ordinance. Although the indicator rebounded each time after the 2 incidents, it has never gone back to the 7.2 marks level registered shortly after the handover. The HKSAR Government should better learn the lesson."

The new poll released in the POP Site today is a random telephone survey conducted by interviewers, targeting at Cantonese speakers in Hong Kong of age 18 or above. The sample size of the survey is 1,049 respondents. At 95% confidence level, the sampling error of all indicators reported is less than plus/minus 0.12 mark, while that of the rating of CJ Andrew Li Kowk-nang is plus/minus 1.4 marks. The meaning of "95% confidence level" is that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.