HKU POP SITE releases the latest findings on people's reactions towards the Policy AddressBack

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the aggregate and comparative analyses of the full survey on people's instant reactions towards the Policy Address, which was conducted on the first two days after the announcement of the Address. POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. The date and time of our next release will be January 21, 2003, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest results of the 4 subjective freedom indicators on Hong Kong's freedom of "speech", "press", "publication", and "procession and demonstration" will be released.

In the past many years, POP has conducted instant polls on the first one or two days after the head of the government delivered his Policy Address, or after the Financial Secretary delivered his Budget Speech. Such instant polls, which measure people's instant reaction to the policies, would be followed weeks later by our follow-up surveys, which measure people's more matured reaction. We believe this is the correct way to study public opinion on these issues.

This year, between January 8 and 9, or the first and second day after the CE announced his Policy Address, POP conducted a random telephone survey which successfully interviewed 1,259 Cantonese speakers in Hong Kong of age 18 or above. Preliminary findings collected on the first day of the survey have already been released last Thursday, January 9, 2003. Today's release will focus on the aggregate result of the entire survey, as well as the differences observed between the 2 days.

According to the latest figures released today, a significant drop was registered for the rating of CE Tung Chee-hwa on the following day after he delivered his Policy Address, from 48.2 marks recorded on the first day, to 45.6 marks. The aggregate result for the entire survey was that CE's rating has slightly increased by 0.7 mark to 47.3 marks, from the historic low of 46.6 marks registered in early January (January 2-7) before he announced his Policy Address.

On the other hand, after excluding those respondents who said they had not heard of the Policy Address, the dissatisfaction figure for the Address registered on the second day of the survey was 35%, which was a significant increase of 8 percentage points when compared to the 27% recorded on the first day. As for people's satisfaction rating of the Policy Address, after excluding those respondents who said they had not heard of it, the figure has dropped from 51.6 marks recorded on the first day to 47.5 marks registered on the second day, showing a significant decrease of 4.1 marks. Furthermore, again excluding those who had not heard of the Policy Address, on the second day of the survey, the proportion of respondents who said their confidence in Hong Kong's future had dropped after the announcement of the Policy Address was 29%, representing a significant increase of 7 percentage points. Meanwhile, 20% said their confidence had increased, while 45% said "no change". Since many of the respondents said they had not heard of the Policy Address during the survey, the valid sub-samples of the three items mentioned above became smaller than those for other questions. The sampling errors for these questions have increased accordingly.

Regarding people's satisfaction with CE's policy direction, the figures obtained on the second day of the survey indicated that 19% of the respondents were satisfied, 40% were dissatisfied, 28% said "half-half", while 14% did not give a definite answer. A significant increase of 7 percentage points was recorded for the dissatisfaction figure when compared to that of the first day.

On the other hand, as regards the theme of this year's Policy Address "Capitalizing on Our Advantages: Revitalizing our Economy", the aggregate result showed that 61% of the respondents considered it to be in line with the current needs of society, 18% said it did not, 7% said "half-half", while 13% did not give a definite answer. No significant difference was observed between the 2 days. As for revitalizing the economy, the figures registered on the second day revealed that 18% of the respondents believed that CE's policies could revitalize the economy of Hong Kong, 9% said "half-half", while 44% believed they could not. The negative figure has rapidly increased by 14 percentage points from that of the first day.

As for CE's analysis of Hong Kong's economy, the aggregate result indicated that 36% of the respondents agreed with him that the past successes of Hong Kong were attributable largely to the incompetitiveness of the Mainland economy, 42% disagreed, 10% said "half-half", while 13% did not give a definite answer. Meanwhile, 50% of the respondents agreed to CE's point that the development of Hong Kong's economy has to be "backed by the Mainland", 33% did not agree, 9% said "half-half", while 8% did not give a definite answer. There was no significant change in public opinion regarding CE's analysis of Hong Kong's economy in the first 2 days.

Finally, on the second day of the survey, 53% of the respondents were satisfied with the decision to take a 10% pay cut by the CE and the Principal Officials with effect from April 1, 2003, 33% were dissatisfied, while 7% said "half-half" and another 7% did not give a definite answer. Comparing the figures obtained on the 2 days, the satisfaction figure has dropped from 62% to 53%, representing a significant decrease of 9 percentage points.

Summing up the result of the entire Policy Address instant poll, Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "The stabilizing effect on CE Tung Chee-hwa's popularity by his Policy Address has quickly subsided, as quite some respondents who took a wait-and-see position with CE's policy direction on the first day became dissatisfied on the following day. It seems that people do not have too much dispute on CE's macro analysis of the economy, but do not have much confidence in the efficacy of his policies."

The new poll released in the POP Site today is a random telephone survey conducted by interviewers, targeting at Cantonese speakers in Hong Kong of age 18 or above. The sample size of the survey is 1,259 respondents. At 95% confidence level, for the aggregate sample, the sampling errors of the rating of CE and his Address are plus/minus 1.4 and 2.0 marks respectively, that of most other percentages is less than plus/minus 3 percentage points, while that of percentages relating to people's satisfaction with the policy address and confidence in Hong Kong's future are less than plus/minus 5 and 4 percentage points respectively. The sampling errors for the sub-samples of respective days of the survey have increased accordingly because of the smaller sample size, but in any case not more than plus/minus 6 percentage points. The meaning of "95% confidence level" is that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.