HKU POP SITE releases the latest ratings of Principal Officials under the accountability systemBack

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest ratings of Principal Officials under the accountability system. POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly.

On the same and following day after CE Tung Chee-hwa announced his Sixth Policy Address, POP conducted an instant poll to gauge people's instant reaction. Preliminary findings collected on the first day have already been released last Thursday, January 9, 2003. Tomorrow, January 15, at 2pm we will release the full results of both days together, with comparative and aggregate analyses. Then, on January 21, 2003, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest results of the 4 subjective freedom indicators on Hong Kong's freedom of "speech", "press", "publication", and "procession and demonstration" will be released.

Between January 2 and 7, 2003, just before the CE announced his Policy Address, POP conducted a random telephone survey which successfully interviewed 1,063 Cantonese speakers in Hong Kong of age 18 or above, to measure the popularity ratings of the Secretaries and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. Because this survey was conducted before the CE delivered his Policy Address, the effects brought by the Address are yet to be seen.

Regarding the popularity ratings for the three Secretaries, results showed that the latest rating of CS Donald Tsang Yam-kuen was 59.4 marks, a significant drop of 2.0 marks from that of early December last year, which was also a record low since his taking up the position as CS in May 2001. On the other hand, the popularity ratings of FS Antony Leung Kam-chung and SJ Elsie Leung Oi-sie were 52.7 and 46.7 marks respectively. Both ratings stayed virtually unchanged when compared to those registered in early December last year.

As for the popularity ranking of Directors of Bureaux, according to our latest findings, the most popular official remained to be Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao Sau-tung, attaining 59.9 marks, and leading with quite a wide margin from the rest. Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food Yeoh Eng-kiong and Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip Shu-kwan ranked 2nd and 3rd, with popularity ratings of 54.7 and 54.6 marks respectively. Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen Ming-yeung and Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li Kwok-cheung ranked 4th and5th, attaining 51.9 and 51.8 marks respectively. Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology Henry Tang Ying-yen, Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong Wing-ping, Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho Chi-ping, and Secretary for Security Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee ranked from 6th to 9th, with popularity ratings of 51.4, 51.4, 51.2 and 51.1 marks correspondingly. The last 2 ranks fell to Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma Si-hang, attaining 48.0 and 42.2 marks respectively. Among the 11 Directors of Bureaux, the rating of Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee has dropped for 4 consecutive times from a high score of 62.4 marks registered in September last year, and accumulated a decrease of 11.3 marks. Her ranking among the Directors of Bureaux has dropped from the 1st to the 9th in just 4 months.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee's popularity plunge in the past 4 months can be characterized in 2 stages. Stage 1 probably began in late September last year, when the government released the consultation document on Basic Law Article 23, and ended in late October last year, when Ip attended many university forums to discuss the issue. During this period, her popularity rating dropped for "one grade", or around 5 marks, obviously reflecting people's appraisal of her performance in these forums. Then, between early November and early December, she put on a low profile, and her rating stabilized at the 55-mark level. However, 1 month later, her popularity rating again dropped "one grade" further to the 51-mark level, notwithstanding her relatively low profile. The reason may well be that people have become more agitated after a series of collective actions in December, and have projected their feeling of dissatisfaction on Ip."

The new poll released in the POP Site today is a random telephone survey conducted by interviewers, targeting at Cantonese speakers in Hong Kong of age 18 or above. The sample size of the survey is 1,063 respondents. At 95% confidence level, the sampling errors of the ratings of CS, FS and SJ are plus/minus 1.2, 1.2, and 1.4 marks correspondingly, while those of the ratings of Directors of Bureaux are less than plus/minus 1.6 marks. The meaning of "95% confidence level" is that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.