HKU POP SITE releases the latest findings on people's opinions towards the independence of Taiwan and cross-strait reunification, as well as their ethnic identityBack

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest findings on people's opinions towards the independence of Taiwan and cross-strait reunification, as well as their ethnic identity. Since today's release has already incorporated the last data point of these survey items in 2002, the media is welcome to use our tables (especially the half-yearly averages) and charts as year-end wrap-ups of these items since the 1997 handover.

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. Since CE Tung Chee-hwa will announce his sixth policy address tomorrow (January 8, Wednesday), we will release people's instant reactions towards the policy address the day after tomorrow (January 9, Thursday) at 2 pm. Then, on January 14, 2003, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest ratings of the Principal Officials under the accountability system will be released.

According to the random telephone survey conducted by POP between December 13 and 18, 2002, which interviewed 1,026 Cantonese speakers in Hong Kong of age 18 or above, 67% of the respondents opposed the independence of Taiwan, 15% agreed, while 19% did not give a definite answer. Compared with the figures registered in mid-September last year, the proportion of respondents who opposed has dropped by 4 percentage points. On a macro level (please see the charts with half-yearly averages), the opposition figure has been fluctuating upward from an average of 57% registered in the second half of 1997, until it reached a high average figure of 71% in the first half of 2000. A slight drop was then recorded, and the average figure has been fluctuating between a narrow range of 65% to 70% since then, still way above the corresponding figure for those who agreed.

Results also revealed that 49% of the respondents were confident in the ultimate reunification across the strait, 32% were not, and the remaining 19% did not give a definite answer. The proportion of respondents who were pessimistic on this issue has dropped by 3 percentage points from that of mid-September last year. On a macro level (please see the charts with half-yearly averages), the confidence level has been fluctuating upward from an average of 33% registered in the second half of 1997, and overtook the "not confident" figure in the second half of 1999. However, the confidence level has dropped rapidly to an average of 48% in the second half of 2002 after reaching a high average of 55% in the second half of 2001.

On the other hand, when asked to make a choice among four given identities, namely, "Hong Kong Citizen", "Chinese Hong Kong Citizen", "Chinese Citizen" and "Hong Kong Chinese Citizen", 31% of the respondents identified themselves as "Hong Kong Citizens", 30% as "Chinese Citizens", 21% as "Chinese Hong Kong Citizens", while 14% identified themselves as "Hong Kong Chinese Citizens". In other words, 52% of the respondents identified themselves as "Hong Kong People" in the broader sense (i.e. either as "Hong Kong Citizens" or "Chinese Hong Kong Citizens"), whereas 44% identified themselves as "Chinese People" in the broader sense (i.e. either as "Chinese Citizens" or "Hong Kong Chinese Citizens"). Compared with the findings obtained in early September last year, the proportion of respondents who identified themselves as "Chinese People" in the broader sense has decreased by 4 percentage points. On a macro level (please see the chart with half-yearly averages), the proportion of respondents who identified themselves as "Hong Kong People" in the broader sense has been fluctuating downward from an average of 60% in the second half of 1997 to an average of 52% in the second half of 2002. On the contrary, the corresponding figure of "Chinese People" in the broader sense has been fluctuating upward from an average of 38% registered in the second half of 1997 to an average of 46% recorded in the second half of 2002. As for those who identified themselves specifically as "Chinese Citizens", a significant increase of 13 percentage points in the average figure was observed during the same period of time.

Because concepts of "Hong Kong Citizen", "Chinese Hong Kong Citizen", "Chinese Citizen" and "Hong Kong Chinese Citizen" may overlap with each other, and making a one-in-four choice may not reflect the actual strengths of one's ethnic identities, POP has therefore conducted parallel tests on the strengths of people's separate identities as "Hong Kong Citizens" and "Chinese Citizens" using a scale of 0-10. The latest figures registered in mid-December last year for "Hong Kong Citizens" and "Chinese Citizens" were 7.77 and 7.44 marks respectively, representing significant decreases of 0.20 and 0.38 marks from those of early September respectively. On a macro level (please see the chart with half-yearly averages), people's strength of identity as "Hong Kong Citizens" appears to have followed an undulating path. It went downward from the second half of 1997 to the first half of 1999, then rose to a peak in the first half of 2001, and then dropped again, until it rebound again in the second half of 2002. The net effect was a slight drop from the average figure of 7.99 marks registered in the second half of 1997 to the average of 7.87 marks registered in the second half of 2002. On the other hand, people's strength of identity as "Chinese Citizens" has also followed a similar undulating path with similar turning points. It dropped from the average of 7.28 registered the second half of 1997 to the average of 7.02 registered in the first half of 1999, then rose to a peak of 7.85 marks registered in the second half of 2001, and then dropped to the average of 7.63 marks registered in the last half-year. There was a net increase of 0.35 mark since the handover. To sum up, people's strength of identity as "Hong Kong Citizens" has been consistently stronger than that of "Chinese Citizens", but the difference between the two has gradually narrowed, from 0.71 mark in the second half of 1997 to 0.04 mark in the second half of 2001. It has, however, widened again since then.

The new survey reported in the POP Site today is a random telephone survey conducted by interviewers, targeting at Cantonese speakers in Hong Kong of age 18 or above. The sample size of the survey is over 1,000 respondents. At 95% confidence level, the sampling errors of people's ratings towards their strengths of identities as "Hong Kong citizens" and "Chinese citizens" are plus/minus 0.14 and 0.16 marks respectively, while that of all percentages is less than plus/minus 3 percentage points. That means if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not comment on the findings at this stage. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email to us at <[email protected]>, the Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.