[an error occurred while processing the directive] 香港大學民意研究計劃 Public Opinion Programme, The University of Hong Kong

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Press Release on December 24, 2002
 

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest rating of CE Tung Chee-hwa, people's satisfaction with the HKSAR Government, their trust in the HKSAR and Beijing Central Governments, as well as their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems". Since today's release has already incorporated the last data point of these survey items in 2002, the media is welcome to use the half-yearly averages contained in our tables and charts as year-end wrap-ups of these items since the 1997 handover.

 

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. According to this schedule, the date and time of our next release will be December 31, 2002, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the result of the 2002 year-ender survey, people's most concerned problems, and their satisfaction with the policy direction of CE Tung Chee-hwa will be released. We will also release the latest findings on people's satisfaction with the current political, economic and social conditions.

 

According to the latest figures released today, CE Tung Chee-hwa's rating registered in mid-December (December 13-18) was 47.0 marks, representing a drop of 1.0 mark from that of early December, which was not statistically significant. On a macro level (please see the chart with half-yearly averages), CE's ratings have been decreasing since the second half of 1997, to a record low of 48.4 marks in the second half of this year, which was a significant drop of 5.6 marks from that of the first half of the year.

 

Regarding people's appraisal of the performance of the HKSAR Government, 48% of the respondents were dissatisfied with its performance, 17% were satisfied, 30% said "half-half", while 4% did not give a definite answer. The results were similar to those obtained in mid-November. On a macro level (please see the chart with half-yearly averages), people's satisfaction with the HKSAR Government has been fluctuating between 20% and 30% after its dramatic fall in the first half of 1998. It has dropped to a record low of 18% in the second half of this year.

 

As regards people's trust in the HKSAR Government, the latest figures registered in mid-December showed that 36% of the respondents trusted the government, 34% did not, 22% said "half-half", while 7% did not give a definite answer. No significant difference was observed when compared with the results registered in mid-October. On a macro level (please see the chart with half-yearly averages), people's distrust in the HKSAR Government has fluctuated upward from around 10% registered in the second half of 1997, to a record high of 35% in the second half of this year. The figure has increased rapidly by 13 percentage points in half a year's time.

 

On the other hand, our latest results revealed that 45% of the respondents trusted the Beijing Central Government, 25% did not, while 19% said "half-half". The trust level has increased by 4 percentage points when compared with that of mid-October, and continued to be higher than the corresponding figure for the local government. On a macro level (please see the chart with half-yearly averages), people's trust in the Beijing Central Government has been increasing steadily after the handover to reach a record high of 49% in the first half of this year. It then dropped to 41% in the second half of this year.

 

Meanwhile, according to the findings obtained in mid-December, there was an equal split between respondents who were confident in Hong Kong's future and those who were not, each at 42%. On a macro level (please see the chart with half-yearly averages), the proportion of respondents who were not confident was on an upward trend after the handover. It reached a record high of 44% in the second half of this year, and out-numbered the average confidence level for the first time.

 

Regarding people's confidence in the future of China, 84% expressed confidence, which was much higher than the corresponding figure for Hong Kong's future. On the other hand, 51% of the respondents were confident in "one country, two systems", whilst 35% were not. These results were similar to those obtained in mid-October. On a macro level (please see the chart with half-yearly averages), a slowly declining trend was observed, from 64% in the second half of 1997 to 53% in the second half of this year, although the figures are still quite positive.

 

The new survey reported in the POP Site today is a random telephone survey conducted by interviewers, targeting at Cantonese speakers in Hong Kong of age 18 or above. The sample size of the survey is over 1,000 respondents. At 95% confidence level, the sampling error of the rating of CE Tung Chee-hwa is plus/minus 1.4 marks, while that of all percentages is less than plus/minus 3 percentage points. That means if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not comment on the findings at this stage. Such an arrangement would be reviewed when more resources are available. Please note that Dr CHUNG Ting-yiu Robert, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is solely responsible for the work published in the POP Site, which does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong.