HKU POP SITE releases the latest ratings of CE Tung Chee-hwa and the most well-known political groupsBack

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest ratings of CE Tung Chee-hwa and the most well-known political groups. Our normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday normally at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next two weeks. The POP Site will review and adjust this operation regularly.

According to this schedule, the date and time of our next release will be June 18, 2002, at 2 pm; the latest results of people's appraisal of the HKSAR Government, their most concerned problems and their satisfaction with the current political, economic and social conditions will be released. Then, on June 25, 2002, at 2 pm, we will release the latest ratings of CE Tung Chee-hwa and the policy secretaries. The latest results of the HKSAR Anniversary Survey will also be released.

According to the latest figures released today, CE Tung Chee-hwa's rating registered in early June (June 4 and 5) was 52.5, a drop of 1.4 marks when compared with that of mid-May. The figure was also the lowest in the past six months.

As regards the ratings of the most well-known political groups in mid-May (May 14-16), the top three on the list were Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (FTU), Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions (CTU) and Hong Kong Association for Democracy and People's Livelihood (ADPL), attaining 58.8 marks, 57.9 marks and 56.0 marks respectively. Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB) and Liberal Party (LP) ranked the fourth and the fifth, with support ratings of 55.1 marks and 52.5 marks respectively. The sixth to the ninth ranks fell to Democratic Party (DP), Frontier, Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movement in China (HKASPDMC) and April Fifth Action (AFA) correspondingly. Since the tenth-ranking political group failed to reach the 50% benchmark recognition rate, it was dropped from the list (for details, please refer to the explanations in the subsequent paragraph, as well as under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page). The mean score obtained by the top five political groups was 56.1 marks, fairly similar to that obtained in mid-February.

The research design of our "Most well-known political groups" has been explained in details under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. The top political groups listed in our latest survey were all those which obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in early May. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political groups whom they knew best. Democratic Party, Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB), Liberal Party (LP), Frontier and Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (FTU) were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. The twelve most frequently mentioned political groups were then entered into the second stage of the survey. During that second stage survey, respondents were asked to rate each political group in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom two political groups in terms of recognition rate were dropped, leaving behind the top 10. Finally, any group which failed to reach the 50% benchmark recognition rate was also dropped. It should be noted that because political groups are not yet legal entities in Hong Kong, such definitions are rather vague, and so-called political groups are constantly evolving. As a result, strange names may appear in the list of groups mentioned by respondents in Stage One surveys. In order to avoid personal bias, our research team will eliminate groups which fall outside the popular definition only after the first stage of the survey. To facilitate readers follow our research process step by step, the POP Site has already displayed the result of all naming surveys conducted since year 2000.

All new surveys reported in the POP Site today are random telephone surveys conducted by interviewers, targeting at Cantonese speakers in Hong Kong of age 18 or above. The sample size of all surveys is over 1,000 respondents. At 95% confidence level, the sampling error of the rating of CE is less than plus/minus 1.3 marks, that of the most well-known political groups is less than plus/minus 1.8 marks, while that for percentages in the naming survey is less than plus/minus 3 percentage points. That means if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not comment on the findings at this stage. Such an arrangement would be reviewed when more resources are available. Please note that Dr CHUNG Ting-yiu Robert, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is solely responsible for the work published in the POP Site, which does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong.