HKU POP SITE releases the latest ratings of CE Tung Chee-hwa, the most well-known political groups, the credibility of the news media in general, and latest figures on people's satisfaction with the freedom of the pressBack

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest ratings of CE Tung Chee-hwa, the most well-known political groups, the credibility of the news media in general, and the latest figures on people's satisfaction with the freedom of the press. Since last month, our POP Site has been releasing the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next two weeks. The POP Site will review and adjust this operation regularly; readers are welcome to leave their comments here.

According to this schedule, the date and time of our next release will be March 26, 2002, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest figures on people's satisfaction with the HKSAR government, its Secretaries, and members of the Legislative and Executive Councils in general, will be released. Then, on April 4, 2002, Tuesday, at 2 pm, we will release the latest figures on people's trust in the HKSAR and Beijing Central governments.

According to the latest figures released today, CE Tung Chee-hwa's rating registered in early March (March 1 to 5) was 53.2, which was 1.1 marks lower than that of mid-February. However, the latest support rating of Tung on March 6 was 54.7, as revealed by our instant survey of people reaction to the FS Antony Leung Kam-chung's Budget conducted on that day, back to the level registered in mid-February. The CE has obviously benefited from the new Budget.

As regards the ratings of the most well-known political groups in mid-February, the top three were Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (FTU), Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions (CTU) and Hong Kong Association for Democracy and People's Livelihood (ADPL), attaining 57.6 marks, 56.1 marks and 55.8 marks respectively. Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB) and Liberal Party (LP) ranked the fourth and the fifth, with support ratings of 54.0 marks and 52.2 marks respectively. The sixth to the eighth ranks fell to Democratic Party (DP), Frontier and April Fifth Action (AFA) correspondingly. Since the political groups which ranked the ninth and the tenth failed to reach the 50% benchmark recognition rate, they were dropped from the list (for details, please refer to the explanations later in this document, as well as under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page). The mean score obtained by the top five political groups was 55.1 marks, fairly similar to that obtained in early November last year.

As regards people's satisfaction with the freedom of the press in Hong Kong, the satisfaction figure has been increasing for four consecutive times since its trough at 50% recorded last February. In early February this year, 68% were satisfied with the freedom of the press in Hong Kong, 11% dissatisfied and 17% "half-half". The satisfaction figure has increased by about seven percentage points when compared to that in last November. On a macro level (please see the charts with per-poll figures), after the handover and before 2000, satisfaction figures normally fluctuated between 60% to 70%. In 2000 and 2001, they normally fluctuated between 50% to 60%. Our latest figure for early 2002 went up to nearly 70%. Whether it will reach the 78% registered right after the handover is, of course, an open question.

The latest credibility rating of the news media in general captured in early February was 5.76 marks on the scale of 0-10, a drop of 0.26 marks when compared to the results recorded last November. It was also the lowest rating since the end of November 2000. On a macro level (please see the charts with per-poll figures), the credibility rating of the news media in general dropped gradually from about 6.5 marks registered soon after the handover to its historic trough at 5.48 marks in November 1999. It then climbed up steadily to the current level of about 6.0 marks.

The research design of our "Most well-known political groups" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. The top political groups listed in our latest survey were all those which obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in early February. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political groups whom they knew best. Democratic Party, Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB), Liberal Party (LP), Frontier and Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (FTU) were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. The twelve most frequently mentioned political groups were then entered into the second stage of the survey. During that second stage survey, respondents were asked to rate each political group in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom two political groups in terms of recognition rate were dropped, leaving behind the top 10. Finally, some groups which failed to reach the 50% benchmark recognition rate were also be dropped. It should be noted that because political groups are not yet legal entities in Hong Kong, such definitions are rather vague, and so-called political groups are constantly evolving. As a result, strange names may appear in the list of groups mentioned by respondents in Stage One surveys. In order to avoid personal bias, our research team will eliminate groups which fall outside the popular definition only after the first stage of the survey. To facilitate readers follow our research process step by step, the POP Site has already displayed the result of all naming surveys conducted since year 2000.

All new surveys reported in the POP Site today are random telephone surveys conducted by interviewers, targeting at Cantonese speakers in Hong Kong of age 18 or above. The sample size of all surveys is over 1,000 respondents. At 95% confidence level, the sampling error of all percentages is less than plus/minus 3 percentage points. As regards the ratings of CE, the top ten political groups and the credibility rating of the news media in general, the sampling errors are less than 1.5 marks, 1.8 marks and 0.12 marks respectively. The meaning of "95% confidence level" is that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not be able to provide additional comments. Such an arrangement would be reviewed when more resources are available. Please note that Dr CHUNG Ting-yiu Robert, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is solely responsible for the work published in the POP Site, which does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong.