HKU POP SITE releases the latest ratings of the Principal Officials under the accountability systemBack

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest ratings of the Principal Officials under the accountability system. POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. According to this schedule, the date and time of our next release will be July 22, 2003, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest results on the 4 subjective indicators on Hong Kong's freedom of "speech", "press", "publication" and "procession and demonstration" will be released.

Between July 2 and 4, 2003, right after the "July 1st Demonstration", but before the government's deferral of the Second Reading of the National Security Bill, POP conducted a random telephone survey which successfully interviewed 1,046 Cantonese speakers in Hong Kong of age 18 or above. Results showed that people's ratings of the 14 Principal Officials under the accountability system have all dropped, by 7.4 marks on average. According to the latest figures, only the ratings of CS Donald Tsang Yam-kuen and Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao Sau-tung managed to stay above the 50-mark level.

With respect to the three Secretaries, the latest results of early July revealed that the rating of CS Donald Tsang Yam-kuen was 56.0 marks, representing a dramatic decrease of 7.6 marks from that of early June. Meanwhile, the ratings of FS Antony Leung Kam-chung and SJ Elsie Leung Oi-sie were 35.8 and 40.4 marks respectively, meaning dramatic drops of 7.0 and 8.6 marks respectively.

As for the popularity ranking of Directors of Bureaux, the most popular official remained to be Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao Sau-tung, attaining 54.7 marks, and leading with quite a wide margin from the rest. Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li Kwok-cheung, and Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip Shu-kwan ranked 2nd and 3rd, with popularity ratings of 49.7 and 48.2 marks respectively. Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology Henry Tang Ying-yen, Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho Chi-ping, Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen Ming-yeung and Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong Wing-ping ranked from 4th to 7th, attaining 46.8, 45.5, 45.4 and 43.9 marks correspondingly. The 8th to the 10th ranks fell to Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food Yeoh Eng-kiong, Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma Si-hang, with popularity ratings of 39.4, 38.6 and 38.2 marks correspondingly. Secretary for Security Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee ranked 11th with 34.6 marks, representing a plunge of 18.4 marks over the month past, which was also the largest single-month drop ever recorded among all SARG officials.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, made the following analysis: "Using a difference of 5 marks to represent one grade, the popularity of the principal officials has dropped by 1.5 grades after the 'July 1st Demonstration'. The popularity of Regina Ip has gone into a free fall of 18.4 marks, while that of C.H. Tung took a 10.7-mark plunge during the same period. This proves that the two persons are the foci of public anger, dragging down the popularity of the entire leadership. If we take 45 marks to be the crisis level, then Regina Ip with 34.6 marks, C.H. Tung with 35.0 marks during the same period, Antony Leung with 35.8 marks, Frederick Ma with 38.2 marks, Stephen Lam with 38.6 marks, Yeoh Eng-kiong with 39.4 marks, Elsie Leung's 40.4 marks*, and Joseph Wong with 43.9 marks, are all immersed in credibility crises. Since 12 out of 14 principal officials now have popularity ratings below 50 marks, and 7* of them being caught in deep crises, the situation is extremely critical, and something has to be done."

The new poll released in the POP Site today is a random telephone survey conducted by interviewers, targeting at Cantonese speakers in Hong Kong of age 18 or above. The sample size of the survey is 1,046 respondents. At 95% confidence level, the sampling errors of the latest ratings of CS, FS and SJ are plus/minus 1.2, 1.4 and 1.4 marks correspondingly, while those of the ratings of Directors of Bureaux are less than plus/minus 1.6 marks. The meaning of "95% confidence level" is that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.