HKU POP SITE releases the latest results of people's opinions towards the independence of Taiwan, cross-strait reunification, as well as their ethnic identity Back

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest results of people's opinions towards the independence of Taiwan and cross-strait reunification, as well as their ethnic identity. Since the survey was completed in mid-June, the half-yearly average figures for these questions carried in the POP Site can actually be regarded as another wrap-up of the public sentiment since the establishment of the HKSAR in 1997.

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. According to this schedule, the date and time of our next release will be July 15, 2003, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest ratings of the Principal Officials under the accountability system will be released.

Between June 13 and 18, 2003, POP conducted a random telephone survey which successfully interviewed 1,043 Cantonese speakers in Hong Kong of age 18 or above. Results revealed that 66% of the respondents opposed the independence of Taiwan, 16% agreed, while 19% did not give a definite answer. Results also indicated that 46% of the respondents were confident in the ultimate reunification across the strait, 37% were not, and the remaining 17% did not give a definite answer.

On the other hand, when asked to make a choice among 4 given identities, namely, "Hong Kong Citizen", "Chinese Hong Kong Citizen", "Chinese Citizen" and "Hong Kong Chinese Citizen", 37% of the respondents identified themselves as "Hong Kong Citizens", 29% as "Chinese Citizens", 19% as "Chinese Hong Kong Citizens", while 12% identified themselves as "Hong Kong Chinese Citizens". In other words, 56% of the respondents identified themselves as "Hong Kong People" in the broader sense (i.e. either as "Hong Kong Citizens" or "Chinese Hong Kong Citizens"), whereas 41% identified themselves as "Chinese People" in the broader sense (i.e. either as "Chinese Citizens" or "Hong Kong Chinese Citizens").

Because concepts of "Hong Kong Citizen", "Chinese Hong Kong Citizen", "Chinese Citizen" and "Hong Kong Chinese Citizen" may overlap with each other, and making a one-in-four choice may not reflect the actual strengths of one's ethnic identities, POP has therefore conducted parallel tests on the strengths of people's separate identities as "Hong Kong Citizens" and "Chinese Citizens" using a scale of 0-10. The latest ratings registered in mid-June for "Hong Kong Citizens" and "Chinese Citizens" were 7.57 and 7.32 marks respectively.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, made the following analysis: "Brushing aside fluctuations in separate polls, the strength of Hong Kong people's identity as "Chinese Citizens", as reflected in the half-yearly averages, has increased significantly from almost 7.3 marks after the handover, to almost 7.9 marks in the second half of 2001. It then dropped gradually to 7.5 marks registered in the early half of this year. One possible reason for this turn was that near the fifth anniversary of the handover, our leaders of the Central Government have begun to make more comments on specific Hong Kong affairs. Regarding people's identity as "Hong Kong Citizens", fluctuations were mainly horizontal, and there were little changes in recent years. Finally, Hong Kong people's opinion on Taiwan issues has also changed very little in the past three years."

The new poll released in the POP Site today is a random telephone survey conducted by interviewers, targeting at Cantonese speakers in Hong Kong of age 18 or above. The sample size of the survey is 1,043 respondents. At 95% confidence level, the sampling error of people's ratings towards their strengths of identities as "Hong Kong citizens" and "Chinese citizens" is plus/minus 0.14 mark, while that of all percentages is less than plus/minus 3 percentage points. The meaning of "95% confidence level" is that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.