HKU POP SITE releases the results of people's appraisal of CE Tung Chee-hwa's performance and a column articleBack

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the findings of a series of questions on people's appraisal of CE Tung Chee-hwa's performance, and a bilingual article written by Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of the Public Opinion Programme, entitled "New Perspectives on Chief Executive Ratings". The article mainly discussed the different methodologies for measuring CE's popularity, and compared their differences and advantages. Copyright of the article is open, and the media is welcome to carry it in whole or in part.

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. According to our schedule, the date and time of our next release will be June 17, 2003, Tuesday, the results of a series of questions on people's appraisal of the performance of the Principal Officials under the accountability system will be released, together with another article, exact time of the release to be confirmed.

Between June 3 and 6, 2003, POP conducted a random telephone survey which successfully interviewed 1,027 Cantonese speakers in Hong Kong of age 18 or above. Results showed that 48% of the respondents thought that Tung Chee-hwa was doing a bad job as the Chief Executive, 16% said he was doing a good job, while 33% said "half-half". The disapproval rate has significantly dropped by 11 percentage points from that of early April, whereas an increase of 4 percentage points was recorded for the approval rate. On a macro level, with respect to people's appraisal of Tung Chee-hwa's job performance, the disapproval rate has fluctuated upwards, from 30% registered in February last year, to nearly 60% in early April this year. The figure has started to decline early this month.

Results also indicated that, if a general election of the Chief Executive were to be held tomorrow, and the people had the right to vote, 62% of the respondents would not vote for Tung Chee-hwa as the Chief Executive, 21% would, while 18% did not give a definite answer. When compared to the findings of mid-March, a significant decrease of 6 percentage points was recorded for those who would not vote for Tung, whereas the support figure has risen by 4 percentage points. On a macro level, the proportion of those who would not vote for Tung has fluctuated upwards from 36% since February last year. The figure has been hovering at the level of over 60% since this year.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, pointed out in the column article that there is a strong tendency in the West to measure the popularity of political leaders in terms of "approval rates" or "hypothetical vote share", using bi-polar answers, in order to convert them into potential vote shares in general elections. In Hong Kong, the idea of "accountability" has now become loud and clear, and people's call for democracy has become increasingly fervent, popularity measurement will have to be readjusted accordingly.

Chung criticized, "some local officials have learnt to twist the meaning of, say, a support rating of 40 something marks into a 40 something percent support rate. They even claimed that such a degree of popularity could rival that of any political leader in the world. These remarks might well have cooled down the public anger, but they are simply betraying science, unfair to public opinion, and harmful to our society."

In addition, Chung also introduced three questions which could be used to measure the public mood, aside from the scale of 0-100: (1) On the whole, how satisfied are you with Tung Chee-hwa's policy direction? (2) Do you think Tung Chee-hwa is doing a good or bad job as the Chief Executive? (3) If a general election of the Chief Executive were to be held tomorrow, and you had the right to vote, would you vote for Tung Chee-hwa? Among them, figures on "hypothetical vote shares" can connect us to the international community, while "policy direction satisfaction rates" and "job performance approval rates" obtained from 5-point scales may "dwarf" the popularity of the government and political leaders, though they may be fairer.

Chung observed, "Concurrent tests showed that a support rating of 55 marks was more or less equivalent to a "vote share" of 45%, 50 marks could be converted to round about 30%, 45 marks to 20%, and 40 marks to 10% to 15%."

Finally, Chung stressed in his conclusion, "These figures are presented with a hope that our Hong Kong society would keep up its pace to develop itself, after it has emerged from crises. At least, the media and our local officials should use opinion figures fairly and objectively, sticking strictly to what is and what is not."

The new poll released in the POP Site today is a random telephone survey conducted by interviewers, targeting at Cantonese speakers in Hong Kong of age 18 or above. The sample size of the survey is 1,027 respondents. At 95% confidence level, the sampling error of all percentages is less than plus/minus 3 percentage points. The meaning of "95% confidence level" is that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.