[an error occurred while processing the directive] 香港大學民意研究計劃 Public Opinion Programme, The University of Hong Kong

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Press Release on April 29, 2003
 

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest rating of CE Tung Chee-hwa, people's satisfaction with his policy direction, their appraisal of the performance of the HKSAR Government in general, their trust in the HKSAR and Beijing Central Governments, as well as their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems". POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. According to this schedule, the date and time of our next release will be May 6, 2003, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest results of the 4 subjective social indicators on Hong Kong's degree of "democracy", "freedom", "prosperity" and "stability", as well as the latest findings from a series of questions related to the rule of law will be released.

 

Between April 16 and 23, 2003, POP conducted a random telephone survey which successfully interviewed 1,021 Cantonese speakers in Hong Kong of age 18 or above. Results showed that the latest rating of CE Tung Chee-hwa was 39.5 marks, representing a significant drop of 1.8 marks from that of early April. His rating has hit its record low again, and broke the 40-mark level for the first time. Moreover, 8% of the respondents were satisfied with Tung's policy direction, while 58% were dissatisfied, representing an increase of 5 percentage points from that of mid-March to reach its record high.

 

With respect to people's appraisal of the performance of the HKSAR Government, 12% of the respondents were satisfied with its performance, 61% were dissatisfied, 24% said "half-half". The dissatisfaction figure has broken the level of 60% for the first time. Regarding people's trust in the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 27% of the respondents trusted the government, 46% did not, while 21% said "half-half". When compared to the findings registered in mid-February, the negative figure has increased by 4 percentage points to reach a record high again.

 

On the other hand, our latest results revealed that 32% of the respondents trusted the Beijing Central Government, 36% did not, while 21% said "half-half". The trust level has declined by 9 percentage points from that of mid-February, yet continued to be higher than the corresponding figure for the local government.

 

Meanwhile, 36% of the respondents were confident in Hong Kong's future, whereas 51% were not. The negative figure has increased by 6 percentage points from that of mid-February to reach a new record. As for people's confidence in the future of China, 75% expressed confidence, a significant decrease of 8 percentage points from that of mid-February, yet still way higher than the corresponding figure for Hong Kong's future. Finally, 51% of the respondents were confident in "one country, two systems", whilst 38% were not. No significant changes were observed for both items when compared to the results of mid-February.

 

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, made the following observations: "The SARS epidemic has eroded people's trust in the HKSAR and the Central Beijing Governments, while the latter's popularity has rebounded after the sackings of two senior officials for their grave dereliction of duty. These have already been discussed in an article in our "POP Column". The most prominent finding of this survey is that Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa's popularity rating has continued to drop, and broke the 40-mark level for the first time. According to our records, casting aside the ratings of candidates sitting for different elections, there were only two local political figures with popularity ratings less than 40 marks, namely, Ma Si-hang, a Director of Bureau under the accountability system, in our October and December surveys of 2002, and Li Fook-sean, a member of the Preparatory Committee for the HKSAR in our November survey of 1996. As for political figures from the Mainland and Taiwan, Li Peng, Lee Teng-hui, Chen Shui-bian and Lu Hsiu-lien were on the list at various times. Tung's current popularity very much speaks for itself."

 

The new poll released in the POP Site today is a random telephone survey conducted by interviewers, targeting at Cantonese speakers in Hong Kong of age 18 or above. The sample size of the survey is 1,021 respondents. At 95% confidence level, the sampling error of the rating of CE Tung Chee-hwa is plus/minus 1.4 marks, while that of all percentages is less than plus/minus 3 percentage points. The meaning of "95% confidence level" is that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <pop.network@hkupop.pori.hk>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.