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市民對六四事件的意見調查
 

民意研究計劃自九三年開始,每年於六四事件週年前數天,進行民意調查,旨在 量度市民對六四事件看法的轉變。調查內容主要包括市民對北京學生及政府處理 六四手法的評價、對中國人權狀況的觀感、港人在推動中國民主及經濟發展的角 色、六四紀念集會的看法及對支聯會的評價。

五月底的最新調查發現,一千一百多名被訪者中,有三成六認為北京學生在六四 事件中做得對,一成六則持相反意見,而沒有給予任何評價的有四成八。與去年 比較,認為此京學生做得對者減少九個百分比,達至歷年的低位,而抱猶豫態度 者則有所增加。至於北京政府處理六四事件的評價方面,有六成一被訪者認為北 京政府做得不對,一成一則持相反意見,二成九沒有給予評價。

中國的人權狀況方面,市民普遍認為中國的人權狀況較八九年佳,並且估計三年 後有關狀況會有所改善。最新調查發現,六成二被訪者估計三年後中國的人權狀 況會比現時好,估計情況相若的有二成正,一成半並無作出估計,只有三個百分 比估計三年後狀況會較現時為差。對比八九年,六成三被訪者認為現時中國人權 狀況較佳,二成四則認為不相伯仲,一成沒有給予評價,其餘四個百分比認為有 關狀況較八九年差。數據大致反映市民對中國人權狀況的改善抱有期望及信心。

至於被訪者認為港人是否有責任推動中國的民主及經濟發展?最新調查發現,有 七成二被訪者認為港人有責任推動中國的民主發展。此外,認為港人有責任推動 中國的經濟發展亦有七成九。比較去年結果,認為港人有責任推動中國經濟發展 及民主發展的市民均見減少。若然比較經濟及民主發展那一項較為重要時,則有 四成三被訪者認為港人應推動中國的經濟發展多一些,三成二則表示經濟與民主 發展同樣重要,一成七則認為港人應推動中國民主發展多些。究竟經濟及民主發 展那樣對中國較為迫切?半數被訪者亦認為中國現時需要經濟發展多於民主發展 ,二成八則認為兩者同樣需要,而表示民主發展迫切一些的有一成六。

最新調查亦發現,四成七被訪者支持平反六四,三成一則沒有給予確實意見,另 外二成二則表示不支持平反。過去四年,市民就此問題上的意見並無大轉變。至 於港人對支聯會的評價方面,一千多名受訪市民中,七百四十人能道出確實數字 ,平均給予支聯會49.9 分支持度,為歷次六四週年調查的最低數字。至於在解散 支聯會的問題上,四成半被訪者表示不應該解散支聯會,一成三認為應該解散, 四成二則沒有表達意見。

整體而言,最新的調查發現市民的主流意見是支持平反六四者居多,又有超過半 數認為中國政府在六四事件中處理不當。不過,大部份被訪者對改善中國人權狀 況抱有一定的期望,並有信心中國會朝著更理想的方向發展。此外,一般被訪者 均認為港人有責任推動中國的民主及經濟發展,當中又較多人認為經濟發展比民 主發展更加重要者多。




Opinion Survey on June Fourth Incident
 

Since 1993, POP has been monitoring Hong Kong people's feeling towards June Fourth by conducting annual surveys days before June Fourth anniversaries. Regular questions asked include people's evaluation of the actions taken by the Beijing students and the Chinese government back in 1989, their appraisal of human right conditions in China, their perception of Hong Kong people's role in helping China develop, their attitude towards June Fourth commemorative activities, and their support of the Hong Kong Alliance in Support of the Patriotic Democratic Movement in China ("the Alliance").

According to our latest survey conducted this May, among 1,103 respondents successfully interviewed, 36% believed that Beijing students had taken the correct actions in 1989, 16% said no, and 48% did not express an opinion. Compared to that of last year, people's support of the Beijing students has dropped 9 percentage points to a record low, and the number of ambivalent respondents has risen. Regarding the actions taken by the Chinese government, 61% said they were wrong, 11% said they were right, 29% did not express an opinion.

On the human right condition in China, 62% believed the situation would become better in three years' time, 20% thought it would stay the same, 3% believed it would get worse, 15% did not make any guess. Compared with the condition in 1989, 63% said it has improved, 24% said it was the same, 4% said it has deteriorated, 10% did not give a definite answer. It seems that most respondents believed that China has improved, and would continue to improve.

Regarding the role of Hong Kong people to instigate the democratic and economic development in China, 72% and 79% respectively said Hong Kong people has a role to play in either area. Both figures dropped slightly from that of last year. If one had to make a choice, 43% thought Hong Kong people should put more effort on instigating development in China's economy rather than its democracy, 32% said the effort should be equally split, 17% chose democracy. Likewise, 50% said China needs economic more than democratic development, 28% said both, 16% chose democracy.

According to this survey, 47% wished to see a reversion of China's official stand on the June Fourth Incident, 31% did not have an opinion, while 22% supported China's current stand. Public opinion has been rather stable in this aspect in the last four years. As to the popularity of the Alliance, 740 out of 1,103 respondents were able to give a definite score, and the average support rating of the Alliance is 49.9, which is a record low across all anniversary surveys. However, only 13% thought the Alliance should be disbanded, 45% said no, 42% did not express an opinion.

On the whole, it seems that most Hong Kong people are critical of the Chinese government in the way it handled the incident. They would like to see a reversion of its official stand. Most people, however, believed that the human right condition in China has improved, and are confident of its future development. Most people believed China needs economic development more than democracy, and would like to see Hong Kong people pay their effort in both areas.