調查方法Survey Method返回


調查方法

民意研究計劃多年來不斷就公眾人物及組織進行評分調查，當中的十大立法會議員及政治團體評分的調查方法如下：
 

 該等調查一般每兩個月進行一次，每次分為兩個階段。在第一階段，訪員會要求被訪者在沒有提示的情況下，被說出他們所認識的名字議員或政團名稱，多少不拘。在十大立法會議員提名調查中，被訪者可說出多至十名議員。在最熟悉政治團體提名調查方面，九九年六月前被訪者可說出多至五個團體的名字，九九年六月後更加增至十個。
 

 研究組會在這些未經提示下產生的名單中，篩選出最多被訪者提及的名字，進入第二階段評分調查。入選名單方面，議員調查共有十二名，而政治團體方面，九九年六月前共接受七個，九九年六月後則更加增至十二個。
 

 在第二階段的評分調查，訪員會要求被訪者就入選的議員或政團以零至一百分進行個別評分，提示為零分代表絕對不支持，一百分代表絕對支持，五十分為一半半。統計分析後，最不為人知的議員或政團將再被剔除，只餘下十大議員或政團（九九年六月前只餘五大政團）。最後，若有議員或政團的認知率不及50%，亦會再被剔除（或只留作參考）。議員及政團的最後排名則以平均支持率計。
 

 民意研究組用這種方法得出的排名，會確保名列前矛者既為人識，亦受支持。排名愈後，則表示有關人士或組織在支持度或認知度方面任缺其一，或兩大皆空。
 

 上述所有第一階段的提名調查及第二階段的評分調查皆屬電話問卷調查，由嚴格督導下的訪員進行訪問。
 

 所有調查的訪問對象皆為十八歲或以上之操粵語的香港市民。
 

 2014年1月中起，電話號碼抽樣方法是先從通訊事務管理局之香港電訊服務號碼計劃獲取已分配予電訊商的電話字頭，然後以隨機方式從中產生號碼。最後，按照電腦撥打及過往調查記錄，剔除無效號碼成為最終樣本。
 

 2014年1月中或之前，電話號碼抽樣方法是從住宅電話簿中首先以隨機方法抽取「種籽」號碼，再以加一減一加二減二的方法產生另一組號碼，然後在混合後再過濾重覆號碼，再以隨機排列方式排次成為最後樣本。
 

 抽取住戶成員的方法是由訪員在成功接觸目標住戶後，用「即將出生日期」的方法由當時在家的成員抽取其中一人進行訪問。



Survey Method

In the past many years, POP has been conducting popularity ratings for a variety of political figures and organizations, including members of the Top 10 Legislative Councillors and the most popular political groups. The research design of these two exercises are explained as follows:

 
 

Relevant surveys are usually conducted once every two months, in two different phases. In the first stage, respondents were requested to nominate, unprompted, all legislators and political groups that they can think of. They could name up to 10 legislators and 5 groups before June 1999, and up to 10 groups after that date.

 
 

POP would then select from this list of unprompted nominees the most frequently cited names for the next stage survey. Before June 1999, 12 legislators and 7 groups would be admitted. The quota for the latter was increased to 12 after June 1999.

 
 

During the second stage survey, respondents would be asked to rate each of the selected political figures and groups using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the least well-known figures and groups would be dropped. Only the ten most well-know legislators and political groups remain. (Before June 1999, only the top five political groups remain.) Finally, any figure or group which fails to reach the 50% benchmark recognition rate would also be dropped (or retained only for reference). The list will then be sorted according to support ratings.

 
 

Using this method, the POP Team is able to screen out the most popular legislators and political groups both in terms of popular recognition and support. Those who failed to reach the top must have failed in either or both aspects.

 
 

All stage one naming surveys and stage two rating surveys mentioned are telephone surveys conducted by interviewers under close supervision.

 
 

Target population of these surveys are Cantonese speakers in Hong Kong of age 18 or above.

 
 

Starting from mid-January 2014, telephone numbers are randomly generated using known prefixes assigned to telecommunication services providers under the Numbering Plan provided by the Office of the Communications Authority (OFCA). Invalid numbers are then eliminated according to computer and manual dialing records to produce the final sample.

 
 

Before mid-January 2014, telephone numbers are first selected randomly from telephone directories as seed numbers. Another set of numbers is then generated by using the plus/minus one/two method. Duplicate numbers are then screened out, and the remaining numbers mixed in a random order to become the final sample.

 
 

Upon successful contact being made with a target household, one member of the household is selected among those present using the "next birthday" rule.