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關於2006年財政預算案即時調查的操作
The operation of Budget instant survey 2006
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民研計劃何時開始進行七一遊行現場抽樣意見調查？
When did HKUPOP start to conduct July 1 rally onsite surveys? |
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民研計劃何時開始進行七一遊行網上意見調查？
When did HKUPOP start to conduct July 1 rally onsite surveys? |
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施政報告期望調查簡介
People's expectations of CE's policy address survey |
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關於市民對施政報告即時反應調查的發展及操作
The development and operation of Policy Address instant surveys |
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關於市民對施政報告跟進調查的發展
The development of Policy Address follow-up surveys |
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年終回顧與前瞻調查簡介
Year-end review and forecast surveys |
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關於2006年財政預算案即時調查的操作
港大民研計劃在1991年成立，1992年10月開始便進行施政報告即時調查，年年如是。及至1998年2月，民研計劃再開展財政預算案即時調查，至今沒有改變。所謂「即時調查」，是指在施政報告及財政預算案發表後，即日開始進行調查，測試巿民的即時反應。倘若傳媒贊助有關調查，即時調查的結果會在完成後立即公佈，甚或隨做隨佈。否則，民研計劃一般會在調查完成後翌日公佈。以下是2006年財政預算案即時調查的操作簡介：
- 特區政府定出發表財政預算案日期後，民研計劃開始策劃即時調查的流程。
- 約一個月前，開始緊貼傳媒有關財政預算案的報導，部署調查問卷內容。
- 約一星期前，部署即時調查的人手調配及內部安排。
- 當日，透過傳媒及互聯網緊貼財政預算案的發表過程，包括之後的新聞發佈會，然後草擬調查問卷。
- 隨機抽樣電話訪問於黃昏6時開始，動員接近50名訪員及其他工作人員。訪問於晚上10時結束，共錄1,026個成功個案。
- 工作人員隨即核實數據及進行定量分析，及草擬新聞公報初稿。
- 翌日，再次確認調查數字、調整民意網站設計及審議新聞公報內容，然後公報結果。
(初版：2006年2月23日新聞公報之附加資料)
The operation of Budget instant survey 2006
HKUPOP was established in 1991, we began our Policy Address instant surveys in October 1992. In February 1998, we expanded our instant surveys to cover the Budget Talks, and our operation has not been changed since then. “Instant survey” is conducted on the same day soon after the Policy Address or Budget is announced, and is used to test the immediate reactions of the people. If any mass media sponsors the survey, its results would be released immediately, even on a real time basis. Otherwise, we generally announce the findings on the following day. Below is an outline of our operation for the Budget instant survey of 2006:
- After the HKSAR government announced the date of Budget Talk, we started our planning for the instant survey.
- About one month ago, we began to keep track of news about the Budget, in order to lay the ground work of questionnaire design.
- About one week ago, we began our manpower deployment.
- On Budget Day, we monitored the media and the Internet, including the entire Budget Talk and subsequent press conferences, and then drafted the questionnaire.
- Random telephone interviews began at 6 p.m. on the Budget Day, involving nearly 50 interviewers and staffs. The interviews finished at 10 p.m., after collecting 1,026 samples.
- Data verification and quantitative analyses followed immediately, together with the drafting of the press release.
On the following day, the survey findings were verified again, when the content of the POP Site and press release were proof read. The results would be released after everything was complete.
(First release: Supplementary section of our press release of 23
February 2006)
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民研計劃何時開始進行七一遊行現場抽樣意見調查？
民研計劃由2003年第一次七一遊行開始，便每次都在現場向15歲或以上參與遊行的巿民進行抽樣意見調查，目的在於了解遊行人士的背景和訴求。2003至2005年，有關調查的問卷都是由香港中文大學新聞與傳播學院教授陳韜文和香港大學民意研究計劃主任鍾庭耀聯合設計，抽樣方法及現場調查則由民研計劃負責。數據分析和撰寫文章方面，則加入香港城市大學英文與傳播學系助理教授李立峰，聯合進行。今年2006年，由於估計遊行的人數和動員方式不會有突破性發展，現場調查的問卷因而略為縮短，而整項調查的設計和執行工作亦有民研計劃全面負責，但調查數據亦會送交陳韜文和李立峰進行跟進分析，初步調查結果則透過《民意網站》全面公開。
(初版：2006年7月4日新聞公報之附加資料)
When did HKUPOP start to conduct July 1 rally onsite surveys?
Since the first July 1 Rally in 2003, POP began to conduct onsite surveys of rally participants of age 15 or above, in order to understand the background and appeals of the protestors. From 2003 to 2005, all onsite questionnaires were jointly designed by Joseph Man Chan, Professor at the School of Journalism and Communication at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, and Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong. POP was responsible for designing the sampling method and conducting the onsite interviews, whereas Francis Lee, Assistant Professor at the Department of English and Communication at the City University of Hong Kong also joined the statistical analyses and article writing. This year, 2006, because we did not anticipate any breakthrough both in terms of the number of rally participants and their mode of mobilization, the length of the onsite questionnaire has been shortened. POP was fully responsible for the whole research design and operation, but the data collected would also be given to Joseph Chan and Francis Lee for follow-up analyses. Preliminary findings are released to the public via the "POP SITE".
(First release: Supplementary section of our press release of 4 July 2006)
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民研計劃何時開始進行七一遊行網上意見調查？
2003年第一次七一遊行開始，民研計劃除了每次都在現場進行抽樣意見調查外，亦會在現場派發附有密碼的單張，邀請參與遊行市民到《民意網站》內指定的連結填寫問卷。若干天後，我們會把網上收到的問卷，分開有效、可疑、重複等不同類別加以分析。網上問卷與現場問卷不同之處，是篇幅比較長，提問比較深入，兼且容許巿民自由填寫意見，可補現場調查之不足。不過，由於網上調查的代表性始終有限，我們只把結果用作輔助參考。2003至2005年，網上調查的單張由香港中文大學新聞與傳播學院教授陳韜文和香港大學民意研究計劃主任鍾庭耀名義聯合發出，2006年則以港大民研計劃名義發出，而歷年的網上調查操作和數據分析都是由民研計劃全面負責，調查結果則透過《民意網站》全面公開。
(初版：2006年7月4日新聞公報之附加資料)
When did HKUPOP start to conduct July 1 rally onsite surveys?
Since the first July 1 Rally in 2003, POP has been conducting onsite surveys of rally participants of age 15 or above to fill in an online questionnaire by clicking on a specific link in the "POP SITE". Leaflets with unique passwords are distributed to rally participants on the spot. Several days later, we would separate the responses received into categories such as valid, dubious and repeated, for further analyses. The difference between online and onsite questionnaire is that the online questionnaire is longer and the questions are more in-depth. It also allows the respondents to freely express their opinions. Online surveys can therefore provide supplementary information to the onsite surveys. Nonetheless, because the representativeness of online surveys is somehow limited, we can only take the findings as supplementary references. From 2003 to 2005, the invitation leaflets of the online surveys were jointly distributed under the name of Joseph Man Chan, Professor at the School of Journalism and Communication at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, and Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong. In 2006, it was distributed under than name of HKUPOP. POP was fully responsible for the research operation and statistical analyses of all online surveys, and all findings have been released for public consumption via the "POP SITE".
(First release: Supplementary section of our press release of 4 July
2006)
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施政報告期望調查簡介
九七回歸後，民研計劃便開始進行「市民對特首施政報告期望」調查，作為「施政調查系列」的新增成份。調查初期只有一個階段，於2005年9月演變成為兩個階段，但調查的整體概念和方法則沒有改變。以下是有關「特首施政報告期望」調查的發展：
- 民研計劃在九七回歸後，第一任特首董建華發表施政報告前，便開始調查市民對他任內「第一份」施政報告的期望，結果於特首發表施政報告前公佈。及至2005年9月，亦即新任特首曾蔭權發表其「第一份」施政報告前，調查便演變成兩個階段。特首施政報告期望的調查由始至今都是在特首發表施政報告前公佈。
- 董建華就任特首期間，施政報告期望調查只有一個階段，提問方式為「特首即將要發表其第X份施政報告,你認為他應重點處理甚麼問題?」。及至2005年曾蔭權接任特首，第一階段提問方式跟之前只有一個階段測試的問題一樣，但第二階段調查就根據第一階段調查的結果，選出前列五至六個優先政策項目再作個別優次調查，提問方式為「特首曾蔭權即將要發表佢既第X份施政報告，你認為佢有幾需要處理某某問題？」，而被訪者就特首有幾需要處理該項問題的程度，選答「非常需要」、「幾需要」、「一半半」、「唔係幾需要」或「好唔需要」。
- 樣本數目方面，特首施政報告期望調查由調查開始至1999年9月，樣本數目都稍為超過500個，2000年10月之後的有關調查的樣本數目就增加至1,000個以上。由2005年分開兩個階段測試的施政報告期望調查開始，第一階段的樣本數目為1,000個以上，而第二階段的樣本數目則稍為超過500個。
民研計劃於1997至2000年間進行的「特首施政報告期望」調查，結果都在由民研計劃發行的《民意快訊》中發表。2000年6月《民意網站》成立後，有關調查在2001年10月開始透過網站向外公佈，而以往透過民研計劃刊物《民意快訊》發表的調查結果，亦以不同形式上載到網站之中。
(初版：2006年10月9日新聞公報之附加資料)
People's expectations of CE's policy address survey
Right after the handover of Hong Kong in 1997, HKUPOP began to measures people's expectation of CE's Policy Address, as an enhancement to HKUPOP's survey series on Policy Addresses. At first, the survey had only one stage, it was expanded into two in September 2005, while retaining the basic concept and design. The development of our survey on "people's expectation of CE's Policy Address" is as follows:
- After the handover of Hong Kong and before the first CE Tung Chee-hwa delivered his first Policy Address, HKUPOP conducted and released our first survey on people's expectation of CE's policy address. In September 2005, before the new CE Donald Tsang CE presented his first Policy Address, our survey was split into two stages. From the beginning up to now, all surveys are released shortly before the CE delivered his Policy Address.
- During Tung Chee-hwa's time, the survey consisted of only one stage, the wordings used in the questionnaire were "CE will announce his X policy address. Which issue do you think he should tackle first?" Since 2005, the survey was split into two stages. In stage one, the same question is used, and the top 5 to 6 policy areas are screened out for stage two survey, whereby respondents were asked to evaluate each of the top priority items individually, on a 5-point scale, on the degree of urgency that each item should be tackled in the Policy Address. The wordings used in the questionnaire are "CE Donald Tsang will announce his X policy address. How pressing do you think he should tackle such-and-such problem?" Interviewers then probed respondents' sense of urgency for each item with answers ranging from "very pressing", "quite pressing", "half-half", "not quite pressing" to "not pressing at all".
- Regarding sample size, from the beginning to September 1999, the sample size of surveys was set at slightly over 500. After October 2000, the sample size was increased to at least 1000. For the two-staged surveys since 2005, the sample size was at least 1,000 for stage one and 500 for stage two.
The findings from our surveys on "people's expectation of CE's Policy Address" conducted between 1997 and 2000 were released through our newsletter POP Express. After our HKU POP Site was established in June 2000, the findings were released online since October 2000, while all previous findings published in our POP Express were also uploaded on-line in various formats
(First release: Supplementary section of our press release of 9
October 2006)
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關於市民對施政報告即時反應調查的發展及操作
民意研究計劃在1991年成立，1992年10月開始便進行施政報告即時調查，年年如是。所謂「即時調查」，是指在施政報告發表後，即日開始進行調查，測試巿民的即時反應。以下集中介紹施政報告即時調查的發展：
- 施政報告即時調查內容包括一些每年既定會重覆測試的提問，以及根據特首所發表施政報告的內容而釐定的即時問題。既定題目包括特首的民望、市民對施政報告的整體評價，以及施政報告對香港前途信心的影響。
- 樣本數目方面，由1992年開始的有關即時調查的樣本數目目標為1,000個以上。
- 倘若傳媒贊助有關調查，即時調查的結果會在完成後立即公佈，甚或隨做隨報。否則，民研計劃一般會在調查完成後翌日透過網站向外公佈。2000年11月或以前之結果曾經在《民意快訊》刊登，現已透過不同形式上載到《民意網站》。
以下是2006年施政報告即時調查的操作簡介：
- 特區政府定出發表施政報告日期後，民研計劃便開始策劃即時調查的流程。
- 約一個月前，民研計劃開始緊貼傳媒有關施政報告的報導，和部署調查問卷內容。
- 約一星期前，民研計劃開始部署即時調查的人手調配和內部安排。
- 特首發表施政報告當日，民研計劃透過傳媒及互聯網緊貼施政報告的發表過程，包括之後的特首新聞發佈會，然後草擬調查問卷。
- 隨機抽樣電話訪問於黃昏6時開始，動員接近40名訪員及其他工作人員。訪問於晚上11時結束，共錄超過1,000個成功個案。
- 工作人員隨即核實數據及進行定量分析，及草擬新聞公報初稿。
- 翌日，工作人員再次確認調查數字、調整民意網站設計及審議新聞公報內容，然後向外公佈結果。
(初版：2006年10月12日新聞公報之附加資料)
The development and operation of Policy Address instant surveys
HKUPOP was established in 1991, we began our first Policy Address instant survey in October 1992, and our operation has not changed much since then. By "instant survey", we mean a survey which begins on the same day when the Policy Address is announced, in order to gauge the immediate reaction of the people. The development of our Policy Address instant surveys is as follows:
- Our instant surveys comprise a set of core questions asked every year for repeated measurement, plus another set of ad hoc questions designed to match the content of each year's Policy Address. Core questions include CE's popularity, people's overall appraisal of the Address, and its effect on people's confidence in the future of Hong Kong.
- Regarding the sample size, since 1992, it is always set at slightly over 1,000.
- If case we have media sponsorship, our results would be released immediately, even on a real time basis. Otherwise, we generally announce the findings online through our website on the following day. The findings from our Policy Address instant surveys conducted on or before November 2000 have been published in our newsletter POP Express, and they are available in our POP Site in various formats.
Herewith an outline of our operation for the Policy Address instant survey of 2006:
- After the HKSAR government announced the date of Policy Address, we started our planning for the instant survey.
- About one month ago, we began to keep track of news about the Policy Address, in order to lay the ground work of questionnaire design.
- About one week ago, we began our manpower deployment and internal preparation.
- On the day CE announces the address, we monitored the media and the Internet, including the entire address and CE's subsequent press conferences, and then drafted the questionnaire.
- Our random telephone interviews began at 6 p.m. on that day, involving nearly 40 interviewers and staffs. The interviews finished at 11 p.m., after collecting more than 1,000 samples.
- Data verification and quantitative analyses followed immediately, together with the drafting of the press release.
- On the following day, the survey findings were verified again, while our POP Site was re-designed. Our press release was compiled, proofread, and then released for public consumption.
(First release: Supplementary section of our press release of 12
October 2006)
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關於市民對施政報告跟進調查的發展
民研計劃多年來每逢施政報告及財政預算案發表後，都會進行民意調查，測試巿民的即時反應，然後再在數星期後重複進行，量度巿民的後期反應。民研計劃認為此乃比較完善測試民意的做法。民研計劃自香港特區成立之後，便開始進行施政報告跟進調查，年年如是。所謂「跟進調查」，是指在施政報告發表數星期後進行調查，量度巿民的後期反應。以下集中介紹施政報告跟進調查的發展：
施政報告跟進調查內容主要重複在即時調查中有關市民對施政報告整體評價的問題，以及針對特首所發表施政報告的內容而釐定的部分重點問題。以2006年為例，即時調查的題目有：
- 整體黎講，你對特首曾蔭權今年發表既施政報告滿唔滿意呢?
- 宜家想請你對特首曾蔭權今日發表既施政報告既滿意程度進行評分，0分代表非常不滿，100分代表非常滿意，50分代表一半半，你會俾幾多分今年既施政報告呢？
- 特首曾蔭權今日發表佢第二份施政報告後,你對香港前途既信心增加定減少左?
- 施政報告中動用最多資源既係協助車主更換環保汽車，同埋資助幼稚園及家長，你贊成定反對呢種處理方法?
- 特首話現階段不會透過立法規定最低工資，但會鼓勵商界參與清潔及保安行業既「工資保障運動」，若果成效欠佳，就會兩年後部署立法業落實呢兩個行業既最低工資。你贊成定反對特首呢種處理方法?
- 施政報告冇再提商品及服務稅，你贊成定反對呢種處理方法?
- 特首今年發表施政報告既主題係「以民為本、務實進取」，你認為呢個主題是否切合社會需要?
- 曾蔭權話無論邊個做下一任特首，都要面對三項挑戰，即係經濟持續發展、民主政制發展，同埋建構和諧社會。你認為如果曾蔭權連任特首，佢可唔可以解決經濟持續發展／民主政制發展／建構和諧社會既問題？
跟進調查方面就只有上述即時調查中的問題一、問題四至六。
- 樣本數目方面，由開始至2005年1月的有關跟進調查的樣本數目目標為1,000個以上，直至2005年10月開始至今的調查樣本數目目標為500個以上。
- 2000年11月或以前之結果曾經在《民意快訊》刊登，現已透過不同形式上載到《民意網站》。
(初版：2006年10月26日新聞公報之附加資料)
The development of Policy Address follow-up surveys
In the past many years, POP has conducted instant polls after the
Policy Address and the Budget Speech are delivered. Such instant
polls, which measure people's instant reaction to the policies, would
be followed weeks later by our follow-up surveys, which measure
people's more matured reaction. We believe this is a better way to
study public opinion on these issues. Since the establishment of HKSAR,
we began our first Policy Address follow-up survey in October 1997,
and our operation has not changed much since then. By "follow-up
survey", we mean a survey which is conducted after several weeks
when the Policy Address is announced, in order to gauge people's more
matured reaction. The development of our Policy Address follow-up
surveys is as follows:
Our follow-up surveys mainly repeat questions from the instant poll
that asked for people's overall appraisal of the Address, and tackle
the ad hoc questions designed to match the content of this year's
Policy Address. As an example, the questions of instant poll 2006 are:
- How satisfied are you with Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen's
Policy Address?
- Please use a scale of 0-100 to rate your degree of satisfaction
of the policy address delivered by Chief Executive Donald Tsang
Yam-kuen today, with 0 indicating very dissatisfied, 100
indicating very satisfied and 50 indicating half-half. How would
you rate his first Policy Address?
- Has your confidence in the future of Hong Kong increased or
decreased after Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen issued his
second Policy Address?
- It is proposed that most resources would be allocated to
subsidizing drivers to change to use environmental-friendly
vehicles in today's Policy Address, as well as to kindergartens
and parents, do you agree or disagree with these measures?
- The Chief Executive mentioned that he would not set a statutory
minimum wage through legislative means at the moment, but would
encourage the cleansing and guarding services sectors to join the
"Wage Protection Movement". If the Movement fails to
yield satisfactory results in two years' time, he will set out to
prepare for the introduction of legislation for a minimum wage in
these two sectors. Do you agree or disagree with these
measures?
- The Policy Address did not mention the Goods and Services Tax (GST)
at all. Do you agree or disagree with this approach?
- This year, the theme of CE's Policy Address is "Proactive
Pragmatic Always People First". Do you think this theme
concurs with the current needs of the society?
- Donald Tsang says that no matter who becomes the next CE, he/she
needs to face three challenges, including sustainable economic
development, constitutional development, and development of a
harmonious society. If Donald Tsang continues to be the next CE,
do you think he can tackle the problem of sustainable economic
development/constitutional development/development of a harmonious
society well?
As for the follow-up survey, it only includes the above-mentioned
Questions 1, 4-6 in the instant poll.
- Regarding the sample size, from the beginning to January 2005,
it was set at slightly over 1,000. From October 2005 onwards, the
sample size has been set at slightly over 500.
- The findings from our Policy Address instant surveys conducted
on or before November 2000 have been published in our newsletter
POP Express, and they are available in our POP Site in various
formats.
(First release: Supplementary section of our press release of 26
October 2006)
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年終回顧與前瞻調查簡介
除舊迎新，巿民大眾一般都會喜歡在新年伊始之際，進行回顧與前瞻。香港大學民意研究計劃在成立初期，便開始進行年終調查。有關調查除了涉及市民評價過去一年整體情況的滿意程度外，還包括巿民對自己及社會的期望、來年發展的預測、對特區政府施政的期望等。以下介紹有關調查的發展：
- 民研計劃自1992年12月開始定期在每年年底進行「年終回顧與前瞻」調查，當初的調查題目只包括來年發展的預測及對特區政府施政的期望。第二年開始，調查陸續加入其他題目，如巿民對自己和社會的期望，以及過去一年的整體滿意程度等。
- 我們現時的年終調查包括7個問題，提問方式分別為：「整體黎講，你滿唔滿意香港XXXX年既發展？」、「你估計香港XXXX+1年既發展會比今年好D定差D？」、「你覺得香港特區政府XXXX+1年最需要處理乜野問題？」、「你最想香港變成點樣既社會：繁榮、自由、公平、福利定係乾淨社會？」、「回顧XXXX年，你生活得快樂嗎？」、「你估計你XXXX+1年既個人發展會比今年好D定差D？」及「新年就快到啦，請問你對XXXX+1年有乜願望呢？」。
- 樣本數目方面，2000年以前的調查，樣本數目都稍為超過500個，由2000年開始的有關調查的樣本數目就增加至1,000個以上。
- 民研計劃於2000年或以前所進行的「年終回顧與前瞻問題」調查，結果都在由民研計劃發行的《民意快訊》中發表。及至《民意網站》成立後，所有調查開始透過網站向外公佈，而以往透過民研計劃刊物《民意快訊》發表的調查結果，亦以不同形式上載到網站之中。
(初版：2006年12月29日新聞公報之附加資料)
Year-end review and forecast surveys
It is a common practice that at the end of a year, people would like to look back at their achievement in the year past, and then look forward to what would happen in the year to come. Shortly after HKUPOP was established, we began to conduct year-end surveys. Besides mapping people's general appraisal of the year past, we also ask people for their expectations on, and forecast of, their own development in the year ahead, as well as that of the society and that of the government. Here is a brief description of the development of the survey:
- In December 1992, we began to conduct year-end surveys. At first, we only asked questions on people's forecast of society's development in the year ahead, and their expectations on government policies. From the second year onwards, we gradually expanded our survey to cover people's expectation of their own development, their expectation of society's development, and their general satisfaction with development in the year past.
- The questionnaire we now use comprises 7 opinion questions, namely: "In general, are you satisfied with the development of Hong Kong in the year xxxx?", "Do you think the development of Hong Kong in the year xxxx +1 will be better or worse?", "What do you think is the most important problem that the HKSAR government should tackle in the year xxxx +1?", "What kind of society would you most like Hong Kong to become: a prosperous, free, fair, welfare or clean society?", "Were you happy in the year xxxx?", "Do you have any new year wish?" and "Do you think your personal development will become better or worse in the year xxxx +1?".
- Regarding sample size, before 2000, the sample size of surveys was set at slightly over 500. Since 2000, the sample size was increased to at least 1,000.
- The findings from our "year-end review and forecast surveys" conducted on or before 2000 were released through our newsletter POP Express. After our HKU POP Site was established, the findings are released online, while all previous findings published in our POP Express have also uploaded on-line in various formats.
(First release: Supplementary section of our press release of 29
December 2006)
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