分析評論返回



  發放日期
Released data		  分析評論
Commentary 
  14-Dec-06  最新調查顯示，五項信心及信任指標如常保持正面，但對比兩個月前，巿民對特區政府的信任程度就大幅下跌16個百分比，對中央政府的信任程度則明顯下跌7個百分比，兩者都大概跌至曾蔭權在去年接任特首時的水平。不過，巿民對中國前途的信心就輕微上升4個百分比，對香港前途及一國兩制的信心就沒有明顯改變。由於調查沒有要求被防者提出原因，我們只能從近期發生的事情作出估計。我們推測，近期有關食物安全的問題，程翔事件，以至關於選舉委員會界別分組選舉的討論，都可能削弱了巿民對兩個政府的信任程度。
Our latest findings show that although all five trust and confidence indicators have remained positive, compared to two months ago, people's trust in the HKSAR Government has plunged by 16 percentage points, while their trust in the Central Government has also dropped significantly by 7 percentage points. People's trust level for the two governments now stands at around the same level as when Donald Tsang became CE last year. On the other hand, however, people's confidence in China's future has slightly increased by 4 percentage points, while their confidence in Hong Kong's future and in 'one country, two systems' have not changed much. Since we did not ask respondents to give reasons to their answers, we can only guess from what have happened lately. To us, it seems that recent incidents of food poisoning, the trial of Ching Cheong, and discussions revolving around the Election Committee Subsector Elections, may all have affected people's trust in the two governments. 
  22-Aug-06  最新調查顯示，巿民對特區政府的信任程度比兩個月前下跌6個百分比，但對中央政府的信任程度、對香港前途、中國前途，以及一國兩制的信心，則沒有明顯改變。
Our latest findings show that people's trust in the HKSAR Government has dropped 6 percentage points compared to two months ago, while people's trust in the Central Government, their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future, and "one country, two systems" have not changed much.  
  20-Jun-06  最新調查顯示，市民對香港前途、中國前途、以及一國兩制的信心，在過去兩個月的變化不大，全部高企在約七成至八成半的位置，但對特區及中央政府的信任程度，則明顯地從兩個月前的歷史高點或接近歷史高點回落，回復到四個月前的水平，原因暫時未能確定，有待下次分析特首和特區政府民望時再討論。根據本人以往的分析，中央政府愈是寬鬆處理港人治港，便愈能得到香港巿民的信任。
According to our latest findings, people's confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future, and "one country, two systems" have not changed much over the past two months, all standing high at between 70% to 85% approximately. People's trust in the local and central governments, however, has significantly retreated from their record high, or almost record high, registered two months ago, to that of four months ago. The reasons are hard to tell, we may be able to say more next time when we know the latest popularity figures of the CE and the SAR Government. According to my previous analysis, when the central government becomes more relaxed with Hong Kong's autonomy, it earns more trust from the people of Hong Kong. 
  2-May-06  巿民對中央政府的信任程度亦超過五成，是本調查系列在1992年開始以來的新高。前途方面，表示對中國前途有信心者，也達到本調查系列在1997年開展以來的新高。種種跡象顯示，中央政府愈是寬鬆處理港人治港，便愈能得到香港巿民的信任。
People's trust in the central government, on the other hand, has also climbed beyond 50%, which is record high since this series of survey started in 1992. Meanwhile, people's confidence in the future of China has also reached record high since this series started in 1997. All signs show that when the central government becomes more relaxed with Hong Kong's autonomy, it earns more trust from the people of Hong Kong. 
  16-Feb-06  五項信任及信心指標的正面數值在過去三個月來變化不大，但巿民對特區及中央政府的負面不信任程度則明顯回落，對一國兩制的信心則繼續保持在1998年10月以後的新高。
The positive figures of the five indicators of trust and confidence have not changed much in the past three months. However, people』s negative distrust in the local and central governments has significantly receded, while their confidence in 『one country, two systems』 has remained at record high since October 1998. 
  3-Jan-06  政改爭拗影響最大的，似乎是巿民對中央政府的信任程度，巿民對香港整體發展的信心則好像沒有影響。
The row on constitutional development has apparently taken its toll on people's trust in the central government, but not their confidence in Hong Kong's future development. 
  1-Sep-05  在8月底，巿民對特區及中央政府的信任程度，與兩個月前變化不大，基本上保持了轉換特首後的優勢。
Compared to two months ago, people's trust in the SAR and Central Governments in late August have not changed much. The thrust of changing the CE has apparently been maintained. P 
  5-Jul-05  曾蔭權上任特首後，市民信任特區政府的程度上升12個百分比，對香港前途信心上升10個百分比，回復到回歸初期的水平。巿民對中央政府的信任程度及一國兩制的信心都同步上升，但就只回復至接近2004年底的水平。換言之，從民意走勢而言，特區政府比中央政府在更換特首中得益更多。
After Donald Tsang becomes the CE, people's trust in the SAR Government increased by 12 percentage points, and their confidence in the future of Hong Kong increased by 10 percentage points, both have gone back to the level registered shortly after the handover. People's trust in the Central Government and their confidence in 'one country, two systems' have also increased, but just nearly as good as that registered at the end of 2004. In other words, judging from public opinion alone, the SAR Government has gained much more than the Central Government in changing the Chief Executive. 
  19-Apr-05  董建華辭職後，市民信任特區政府程度，自2001年10月以來首次超越中央政府，對香港前途的信心亦明顯上升。更換特首理應增加巿民對中央政府的信任，但人大釋法的爭論似乎削弱了中央政府的優勢。
After CH Tung's resignation, people's trust in the SAR Government has overtaken that of the Central Government, for the first time since October 2001. People's confidence in the future of Hong Kong has also increased apparently. The change of Chief Executive should have increased people's trust in the Central Government as well, but the recent controversy over the reinterpretation of the Basic Law has seemingly ground down the edge of the Central Government over the SAR Government."  
  3-Mar-05  最近有消息傳出董建華在出任全國政協副主席後會辭職，若果屬實，將肯定會改變不少巿民對中央政府的觀感。由於本調查在有關消息傳出前進行，因此並未反映有關發展。市民對特區及中央政府信任程度方面，中央政府的優勢已在過去三個月縮窄至不足一個百分比，原因是巿民對中央政府信任明顯回落，亦牽連了巿民對一國兩制的信心。不過，這個情況在董建華澄清去留後可能會有所改變。
Our survey was conducted before rumours spread that Tung Chee-hwa would resign from his post as Chief Executive after becoming a vice-chairman of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference. If this turns out to be true, many people's perception of the central government would change, and the figures released today would be outdated. People's trust in the central government has gone down significantly over the past 3 months, and is now marginally above that of the SAR government, within one percentage point. This has also affected people's confidence in 'one country, two systems', but the situation is bound to change after Tung clarifies his position. 
  4-Jan-05  最新調查顯示，市民不信任特區政府的程度，在過去兩個月急升15個百分比，回到半年前的位置。相反，信任中央政府的程度就明顯上升，接近2002年2月錄得的高位，形成強烈對比。由於巿民增加對中央政府的信任，對一國兩制有信心亦回升至2002年2月的水平。巿民對香港及中國前途信心方面，過去兩個月變化不大。以半年結的數字綜合分析，巿民對本地政府的信任、對香港前途及一國兩制的信心，已經回復至2003年七一遊行前的水平，而對中央政府的信任程度，亦已回到雙普選爭拗之前。勢頭能否持續，就要看中央及特區政府如何回應巿民新一浪的訴求了。
Our latest survey shows that people's distrust in the SAR Government has increased sharply by 15 percentage points, back to that half a year ago. On the contrary, people's trust in the Central Government has significantly increased, to almost the record high registered in February 2002, giving a stark contrast. Because people's trust in the Central Government has increased, their confidence in 'one country, two systems' has also rebounded to the level registered in February 2002. There was not much change in people's confidence in the future of Hong Kong and China. However, if we look at the half-yearly figures on a macro level, people's trust in the local government, their confidence in the future of Hong Kong and 'one country, two systems', have all recovered to that before the July 1 Rally of 2003. People's trust in the Central Government has also recovered to that before the dispute over universal suffrage broke out. Whether the trends would continue or not depends very much on how the local and central governments would react to people's new wave of demands. 
  19-Oct-04  最新調查顯示，市民對特區及中央政府的不信任程度在過去兩個月明顯下跌，分別有12及8個百分比。不過，信任程度則沒有明顯提升，顯示不少市民現在是持觀望態度。三年來，市民一直信任中央政府多於特區政府，對中國前途的信心高於香港前途。特區政府應該好好反思。
Our latest survey shows that people's distrust in the SAR and Central Governments have subsided over the past two months, for 12 and 8 percentage points respectively. However, this does not mean that their trust level has increased, meaning that more people are becoming ambivalent. Over the past three years, Hong Kong people have trusted the Central Government more than the SAR Government, and they have been more confident about China than Hong Kong's future. This is something our own government should carefully reflect on. 
  7-Sep-04  最新調查顯示，市民對一國兩制的信心、對中央及特區政府的信任程度，都同步回升，似乎已經抵消了人大釋法的影響。市民對中央政府的信任能否維持升勢，則要視乎中央官員在選舉前後的言論和回應。
Our latest survey shows a rebound in people's confidence in 'one country, two systems', and in their trust in both the Central and SAR Governments. The effect brought by NPC's interpretation of the Basic Law seems to have gone. Whether people's trust in the Central Government will continue to grow or not, would depend very much on how Central Government officials would react to the Legislative Council election. 
  6-Jul-04  調查在七一遊行前進行，離開人大釋法後已有一段時間。市民對對特區政府的信任程度，基本上回復到釋法之前，但對中央政府的信任程度，和對一國兩制的信心，則仍未復以前。但從中央官員近日比較溫和的言論看，有關數字有機會在下次的調查中向上調升。
The survey was conducted before the July 1 Rally. It seems that people's trust in the SAR Government has recovered to that before the interpretation of the Basic Law by Standing Committee of the NPC, which is already some time ago. People's trust in the Central Government and their confidence in one country two systems, on the other hand, have not recovered. However, judging from the relatively mild statements made by Central Government officials lately, such figures may well rebound in our next round of survey. 
  2-Mar-04  近日由內地要員發動有關愛國的討論，經已明顯動搖香港市民對中央政府的信心。最新調查顯示，市民對特首董建華及特區政府的信任及滿意程度都有上升，對香港、中國、及一國兩制前途信心的樂觀程度保持平穩，但唯獨對中央政府的信任程度，就在兩個月內下跌7個百分比。如果內地要員繼續調愛國等於愛黨，則中央政府在回歸以來，在香港市民心目中建立的正面形象，將會受到嚴重的衝擊。
The recent controversy on patriotism ignited by authorities in the Mainland has taken its toll, on the Central Government itself. Our latest survey found that Hong Kong people's trust in the Central Government has dropped 7 percentage points in 2 months, in spite of more positive ratings on CH Tung and the SARG. People's confidence in the future of Hong Kong, China and one country two systems has basically remained unchanged. If our Mainland authorities continue to equate patriotism with loving the Communist Party, it will have a very damaging effect on the image of the Central Government, an image which Beijing has tried so hard to instill among Hong Kong people after the handover. 
  4-Jan-04  市民對北京中央政府的信任程度，自去年4月中央免去處理沙士的官員後，便節節上升，逼近2002年初的歷史高位。中央政府能否保持這個優勢，似乎要看它如何看待香港市民的民主訴求了。
people's trust in the Central Government has been on the upward trend, since the sacking of Chinese officials responsible for SARS last April. It is now near its record high registered in early 2002. Whether it can maintain its momentum will depend very much on how Beijing will handle Hong Kong people's demand for more democracy. 
  14-Oct-03  市民對中央政府的信任程度、一國兩制及中國前途的信心，在過去兩個月保持穩定，後者更高企在八成以上。
People's trust in the Beijing Central Government, their confidence in 'one country, two systems' and the future of China, have all remained stable. The figure for the last item has remained high, at more than 80%.  
  2-Sep-03  數字顯示，巿民對中港政府的信任程度、對香港前途、和對一國兩制的信心都全面回升，到達今年的高位，而巿民對香港前途的信心比率的淨值亦由負面變成正面，但仍然遠遠落後於對中國前途的信心。巿民對特區政府的信任程度則仍屬負面，繼續落後於對中央政府的信任程度。
Results showed that people's trust in the local and central governments, their confidence in Hong Kong's future and in "one country, two systems" have all rebounded to reach their peaks this year, while their net confidence in Hong Kong's future has also changed from negative to positive, but the figure is still far behind that for China's future. Meanwhile, people's trust in the local government is still negative, far behind that of the central government.  
  29-Apr-03  特區及中央政府因肺炎事件而失信於港人，但中央政府的民望在嚴懲失職官員後止跌回升，「民意專欄」已有文章論述。
The SARS epidemic has eroded people's trust in the HKSAR and the Central Beijing Governments, while the latter's popularity has rebounded after the sackings of two senior officials for their grave dereliction of duty. These have already been discussed in an article in our "POP Column".  
  Jan-99  總括一年數字，顯示市民對北京中央政府的信任程度比對九七年沒有太大轉變，按全年平均數，信任與不信任北京政府者各佔三成，其餘二成九表示信任程度屬一半半。九八年的平均不信任中央政府人士的比率較九七年略減，相對表示信任程度一半半者則略增，可能反映市民對中央政府的信任程度有輕微的改善。
 
  Dec-97  對回歸前後中國政府的信任程度方面，市民似乎對回歸後的北京中央政府較為信任。九七年下半年平均有三成二被訪者表示對北京中央政府信任，表示不信任的有三成。相對主權回歸前的中國政府，九七年上半年數字顯示只有二成九被訪者表示對其信任，表示不信任的則有四成二。換句話說，九七主權回歸後市民對中國政府的信任程度有增加的趨勢。
people have expressed a higher level of trust in the Beijing government after the handover. A total of 32% on average trusted the Beijing government in the latter half of 1997 and 30% on average showed distrust. Comparatively, only 29% of the respondents trusted the Beijing government before the handover and the proportion of distrust was 42%.  
  Aug-97  八月份，市民對北京中央政府的信任程度達到新高，不信任程度跌至五年來的歷史低點。不過，市民對香港政府的信任程度似乎又每況愈下，對政治及社會狀況的滿意程度比回歸前普遍下降…是特區與內地的距離拉近了？還是未來發展的契機？
By August, people』s trust in the Beijing Central Government has reached a new height, while distrust has fallen to a record low in five years. However, people were not very satisfied with the current social and political conditions, and faith in the local government has further fallen. Is the gap between Hong Kong and mainland closing? Or is it just another turning point?  
  Jul-97  對中國政府及英國政府的信任程度方面，市民對兩國政府的不信任程度均有下降趨勢。就信任中國政府而言，九三年平均有五成一被訪者表示對其不信任；到九七年，表示不信任的比率已跌至四成二。雖然不信任中國政府的被訪者仍佔大多數，但相對而言，對其表示信任的比率已由九三年的一成九升至九七年的二成九，在數字上仍反映市民心目中的中國政府較九三年值得信任。市民對信任英國政府的變化程度與對信任中國政府相若，對英國政府表示不信任的比率，由九三年平均的四成六跌至九七年的四成，相對信任程度則由九三年的二成二升至九七年的三成一。不過，將信任中國政府及英國政府在五年的比率相比，不難發現市民對信任中國政府的比率的增加幅度較對信任英國大。
people』s distrust in the Chinese and British governments had declined over the same period. Our surveys in 1993 revealed that 51% distrusted the Chinese government on average, but the figure dropped to 42% in 1997. Meanwhile, the year average of 『trust』 increased from 19% to 29%. (This reflected that people now trust the Chinese government more than that in 1993.) Considering people』s trust in the British government, the degree of change was more or less the same. In 1993, 46% on average said 『distrust』, but dropped to 40% in 1997, whilst the average of 『trust』 increased from 22% to 31%. Yet, when comparing the figures for both governments, it can be seen that the increase in people』s trust in the Chinese government is greater than that in the British government.