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分析評論 Commentary |
17-Mar-06 | 八成三香港市民反對台灣獨立、及六成反對台灣重新加入聯合國,都是有關調查在1993年中開展以來的歷史新高。至於五成三認為『一國兩制』適用於台灣地區,則是該項提問在1996年底開展以來的歷史新高。香港巿民對台獨的強烈反應,除了因為巿民在回歸後漸漸認同北京中央政府的觀點外,台灣總統陳水扁近期的言論和動作,尤其是決定終止『國統會』和『國統綱領』的做法,似乎也激起香港部分巿民的不滿。 That 83% of Hong Kong people opposed to the independence of Taiwan, and 60% opposed to Taiwan rejoining the United Nations, are both record high figures since these questions started in mid-1993. The 53% who believed that 『one country, two systems』 could be applied to Taiwan is also record high since this question started in late 1996. Hong Kong people』s strong feelings towards the independence of Taiwan is both a function of their increasing agreement with the Central Government』s viewpoint after the handover, as well as an indicator of their frustration at President Chen Shui-bian』s recent speeches and actions, especially his recent move to cease the function of the 『National Unification Council』 and the application of its guidelines. |
19-Dec-06 | 調查顯示,香港市民反對台灣獨立和反對台灣重新加入聯合國的比率,在過去3個月變化不大。認為『一國兩制』適用於台灣地區的比率,就有輕微下降,但對『兩岸統一』有信心的比率,就明顯下跌6個百分比。在兩次調查期間,台灣經歷了『倒扁』群眾運動的高潮,和最近的台北和高雄市長選舉。不過,以香港民情而論,整體反應似乎未算太大。有關台北和高雄市長選舉對香港民情的影響,請參閱本新聞公報『附加資料』部分。 Our survey shows that Hong Kong people's opposition to the independence of Taiwan, and to Taiwan's rejoining the United Nations, have both remained stable in the past 3 months. Meanwhile, the percentage of those who consider 'one country, two systems' to be applicable to Taiwan has dropped slightly, while people's confidence in cross-strait reunification has dropped significantly by 6 percentage points. In between our last two rounds of surveys, Taiwan has experienced the peak of the 'anti-Chen' campaign, as well as the recent mayor elections in Taipei and Kaohsiung. However, in terms of Hong Kong people's sentiment, their net effect is just barely noticeable. For the effect of the mayor elections, please refer to the supplementary section of this release for details. |
19-Sep-06 | 調查顯示,香港市民反對台灣獨立和反對台灣重新加入聯合國的比率,在3個月前回落後再次上升,逼近6個月前錄得的歷史高位。巿民對兩岸統一的信心,和『一國兩制』是否適用於台灣地區的意見,在過去3個月可謂變化不大,主流意見頗為正面。不過,由於調查是在9月初進行,當時台灣的『倒扁』群眾運動雖然已經開始,但仍未進入高潮,調查數字未必能夠反映巿民對台灣局勢的最新看法。可以預期,台灣局勢的未來發展,包括『挺扁』和『倒扁』群眾運動在全台灣的角力、陳水扁會否下台,以至12月初台北和高雄市長選舉的競爭,都會牽動香港市民的情緒,在民研計劃3個月後的調查或可反映出來。至於香港巿民對三個前國家領導人的功過評價方面,情況沒有明顯改變,即是認為鄧小平和趙紫陽對中國的發展功多於過,而楊尚昆則可謂功過參半。」 Hong Kong people's opposition to the independence of Taiwan, and to Taiwan's rejoining the United Nations, have both increased again after they dropped 3 months ago. These figures are now approaching their record highs registered 6 months ago. Meanwhile, people's confidence in cross-strait reunification and their assessment of whether 『one country, two systems' is applicable to Taiwan did not change much over the past three months. They both stand very much on the positive side. However, because our survey was conducted in early September, when the 『anti-Chen' campaign has started but not yet peaked, our figures may not be able to reflect people's latest sentiment towards Taiwan. One may expect that as the 『pro-' and 『anti-Chen' campaigns further clash with each other all over Taiwan, the question of whether Chen Shui-bian would resign lingers, and the December contest for the mayors of Taipei and Kaohsiung heats up, Hong Kong people's sentiment would be further stirred up. Our next survey in three months would hopefully be able to map such changes. Finally, regarding people's appraisals of deceased Chinese leaders, our survey continues to show that Deng Xiaoping and Zhao Ziyang are highly praised for their merits accrued, while Yang Shangkun only received a mediocre appraisal. |
22-Dec-05 | 接近八成香港市民反對台灣獨立、過半數反對台灣重新加入聯合國,接近一半認為『一國兩制』適用於台灣地區,這些數字在過去三個月內的變化不算太大。不過,香港巿民對兩岸統一有信心者,在過去三個月下跌19個百分比,回復至半年前的水平,顯示馬英九當選國民黨主席的正面效應,在香港巿民的心目中已經退卻。 Almost 80% of Hong Kong people opposed to the independence of Taiwan, more than half opposed to Taiwan rejoining the United Nations, and nearly half believed that 『one country, two systems』 could be applied to Taiwan. These figures did not fluctuate too much over the past three months. However, people』s confidence in cross-strait reunification has plunged 19 percentage points over the past three months, down to the level 6 months ago. This shows that the positive effect of Ma Ying-jeou』s becoming the new Chairman of Kuomintang has already faded away in the minds of Hong Kong people. |
21-Jun-05 | 巿民對兩岸統一表示有信心者,在過去3個月略為回落,但仍然比兩岸開辦春節包機前上升接近10個百分比。連宋訪問大陸,可謂延續了香港巿民自春節起的樂觀情緒;對『一國兩制』是否適用於台灣的問題,反而變得有所保留。 Over the past 3 months, the percentage of those who are confident in ultimate reunification has dropped, but is still about 10 percentage-points higher than that before the operation of cross-strait direct charter flights in the Chinese New Year. Lien and Soong's visits to the Mainland have apparently prolonged that optimism, but people have also become more reserved on the applicability of 'one country, two systems' to Taiwan. |
21-Sep-04 | 調查在立法會選舉後進行,市民反對台獨的比率基本上沒有改變,對兩岸統一仍然缺乏信心,但認為一國兩制適用於台灣的比率就明顯回升。江澤民最近辭去中央軍委主席職務的因素,調查則未及反映出來。 The survey was conducted after the Legislative Council election. There was basically no change in Hong Kong people's opposition rate against Taiwan independence. People still lacked confidence in the ultimate reunification across the strait, but the proportion of people who believed that 'one country, two systems' was applicable to Taiwan has rebounded significantly. However, the effect of Jiang Zemin's stepping down from the chairmanship of the Central Military Commission could not be covered by this survey. |
15-Jun-04 | 巿民反對台獨的比率一向高企,在3‧20總統選舉後略有上升。可能由於陳水扁總統的就職演辭比較溫和,市民對兩岸統一的信心比選舉前明顯回升。不過,由於市民近期對一國兩制的信心回落,認為一國兩制適用於台灣的比率就相應跌至1997年8月以來的低點,只得37%。 Hong Kong people have consistently objected to the independence of Taiwan, the figure has slightly increased after the March 20 presidential election. Probably due to the relatively mild inaugural speech delivered by Chen Shui-bian, Hong Kong people's confidence in the final reunification across the strait has rebounded significantly. However, due to the recent decline in people's confidence in 'one country, two systems', the percentage of people who considered 'one country, two systems' to be applicable to Taiwan has dropped to a record low since August 1997. |
Jan-98 | 如何處理兩岸關係一直是中國國情的一部份,台灣民眾方面,有支持台獨者,有希望維持現狀不變者,亦有希望盡快與大陸統一人士。究竟已經成為中國公民的香港市民又如何評估兩岸關係?是次調查發現,四成被訪者認為「一國兩制」並不適用於台灣地區,認為適合的有三成三,其餘二成六則沒有肯定答案,反映本港市民對該問題意見參差。本研究組其他過往的調查中,亦曾就同一問題向被訪者進行測試。綜觀五次調查結果,顯示雖然認為「一國兩制」並不適用於台灣地區的被訪者比率與認為適用的大多相差不夠一成,被訪者似乎仍較傾向認為「一國兩制」並不適用於台灣地區。 Cross-strait relations has always been a central issue of the Chinese nation. Some Taiwan citizens supported the independence of Taiwan, some hoped for the maintenance of the present condition, while others wanted unification. So how did Hong Kong people evaluate the cross-strait relations? The survey has found that 40% thought 「One country, two systems」 could not be applied to Taiwan, 33% said it could, while 26% were uncertain. Opinion on this issue was, undoubtedly, diverse.In fact, the POP Team has asked the same questions five times in the past, and found that opinion was close both ways, usually less than 10 percentage points apart, and tilting towards the negative |