分析評論返回
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分析評論 Commentary |
21-Feb-07 | 最新調查顯示,五項信心及信任指標如常保持正面。對比兩個月前,巿民對特區政府的信任程度顯著回升6個百分比。對中央政府的信任程度、對香港及中國前途的信心,以及對一國兩制的信心則沒有明顯改變。翻查資料,巿民對特區政府的滿意程度,在1月已經止跌回升。我們當時曾經列出以下利好事件:特首北京述職、特首公佈『十一五與香港發展』行動綱領、政府實施內地孕婦來港產子新措施、政府公佈文物建築保護政策、和恆生指數創出歷史新高等。之後,除了特首選舉觸及的社會政策外,似乎都沒有明顯利好事件。因此,我們估計,上述事件同時提升了巿民對特區政府的滿意和信任程度。 Our latest findings show that all five trust and confidence indicators have remained positive. Compared to two months ago, people's trust in the HKSAR Government has rebounded by 6 percentage points, while their trust in the Central Government, their confidence in Hong Kong and China's future, and their confidence in 『one country, two systems' have all remained stable. According to our records, people's satisfaction with the HKSAR Government began to rebound in January. At that time, we listed the following events to account for the change: CE's duty visit to Beijing, his presentation of the action agenda on China's 11th Five-Year Plan and the Development of Hong Kong, government's taking new measures on obstetric services and immigration control, government's announcement of conservation policies in heritage, and Hang Seng Index reaching historical high. Since then, there were very few events other than discussions on some government policies in the course of the CE election. We therefore conclude that the above mentioned events have both increased people's satisfaction and trust of the government. |
14-Dec-06 | 最新調查顯示,五項信心及信任指標如常保持正面,但對比兩個月前,巿民對特區政府的信任程度就大幅下跌16個百分比,對中央政府的信任程度則明顯下跌7個百分比,兩者都大概跌至曾蔭權在去年接任特首時的水平。不過,巿民對中國前途的信心就輕微上升4個百分比,對香港前途及一國兩制的信心就沒有明顯改變。由於調查沒有要求被防者提出原因,我們只能從近期發生的事情作出估計。我們推測,近期有關食物安全的問題,程翔事件,以至關於選舉委員會界別分組選舉的討論,都可能削弱了巿民對兩個政府的信任程度。 Our latest findings show that although all five trust and confidence indicators have remained positive, compared to two months ago, people's trust in the HKSAR Government has plunged by 16 percentage points, while their trust in the Central Government has also dropped significantly by 7 percentage points. People's trust level for the two governments now stands at around the same level as when Donald Tsang became CE last year. On the other hand, however, people's confidence in China's future has slightly increased by 4 percentage points, while their confidence in Hong Kong's future and in 'one country, two systems' have not changed much. Since we did not ask respondents to give reasons to their answers, we can only guess from what have happened lately. To us, it seems that recent incidents of food poisoning, the trial of Ching Cheong, and discussions revolving around the Election Committee Subsector Elections, may all have affected people's trust in the two governments. |
7-Nov-06 | 最新調查顯示,五項信心及信任指標保持正面。對比兩個月前,巿民對特區政府的信任程度明顯止跌回升,對香港及中國前途的信心就略為下跌,對中央政府的信任程度及一國兩制的信心就沒有明顯改變。調查沒有詢問被防者信心上升或下跌的原因,但近期關於銷售稅和最低工資的爭論開始淡化,金融市場活躍但又時有警號,都可能影響各項指標的走勢。 Our latest findings show that all five trust and confidence indicators have remained positive. Compared to two months ago, people's trust in the HKSAR Government has rebounded, while people's confidence in Hong Kong and China's future have slightly dropped. People's trust in the Central Government and their confidence in 『one country, two systems' have not changed much. We did not ask respondents to give us their reasons for any rise or drop in confidence, but the subsiding of debates on GST (goods and services tax) and minimum wages, and the growing fluidity of the financial market with occasional warnings, may all have affected the trends of the indicators. |
20-Jun-06 | 最新調查顯示,市民對香港前途、中國前途、以及一國兩制的信心,在過去兩個月的變化不大,全部高企在約七成至八成半的位置,但對特區及中央政府的信任程度,則明顯地從兩個月前的歷史高點或接近歷史高點回落,回復到四個月前的水平,原因暫時未能確定,有待下次分析特首和特區政府民望時再討論。根據本人以往的分析,中央政府愈是寬鬆處理港人治港,便愈能得到香港巿民的信任。 According to our latest findings, people's confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future, and one country, two systems have not changed much over the past two months, all standing high at between 70% to 85% approximately. People's trust in the local and central governments, however, has significantly retreated from their record high, or almost record high, registered two months ago, to that of four months ago. The reasons are hard to tell, we may be able to say more next time when we know the latest popularity figures of the CE and the SAR Government. According to my previous analysis, when the central government becomes more relaxed with Hong Kong's autonomy, it earns more trust from the people of Hong Kong. |
3-Jan-06 | 最新調查數字是在立法會否決政改方案前錄得,五項信任及信心指標之中,巿民對特區及中央政府的信任程度和中國前途的信心,都回落至差不多是去年8月的水平。不過,對香港前途的信心就上升至1997年10月以後的新高;對一國兩制的信心就上升至1998年10月以後的新高。政改爭拗影響最大的,似乎是巿民對中央政府的信任程度,巿民對香港整體發展的信心則好像沒有影響。 Our findings were recorded before Legco vetoed government's constitutional reform package. Among the five indicators of confidence and trust, people's trust in the local and central governments, as well as their confidence in China's future, have all receded to about that in August 2005. People's confidence in Hong Kong's future, however, has climbed to record high since October 1997, and their confidence in 'one country, two systems' has also climbed to record high since October 1998. The row on constitutional development has apparently taken its toll on people's trust in the central government, but not their confidence in Hong Kong's future development. |
1-Sep-05 | 巿民對一國兩制的信心亦比兩個月前明顯上升,但就較兩項前途信心的比率低出一截。由於調查是在特首宣佈在9月底率領所有立法會議員訪問珠三角前進行,有關發展的民意效應尚待考證,但相信會是正面居多。」 People's confidence in 'one country, two systems', however, has increased significantly compared to two months ago, but is still much lower than the other two confidence figures. Because the survey was conducted before CE's announcement that he would lead all Legco members to visit the Pearl River Delta in late September, the effect of this development on public opinion is yet to be seen, but it would very likely to be on the positive side. |
5-Jul-05 | 曾蔭權上任特首後,市民信任特區政府的程度上升12個百分比,對香港前途信心上升10個百分比,回復到回歸初期的水平。巿民對中央政府的信任程度及一國兩制的信心都同步上升,但就只回復至接近2004年底的水平。換言之,從民意走勢而言,特區政府比中央政府在更換特首中得益更多。 After Donald Tsang becomes the CE, people's trust in the SAR Government increased by 12 percentage points, and their confidence in the future of Hong Kong increased by 10 percentage points, both have gone back to the level registered shortly after the handover. People's trust in the Central Government and their confidence in 'one country, two systems' have also increased, but just nearly as good as that registered at the end of 2004. In other words, judging from public opinion alone, the SAR Government has gained much more than the Central Government in changing the Chief Executive. |
4-Jan-05 | 由於巿民增加對中央政府的信任,對一國兩制有信心亦回升至2002年2月的水平。以半年結的數字綜合分析,巿民對本地政府的信任、對香港前途及一國兩制的信心,已經回復至2003年七一遊行前的水平,而對中央政府的信任程度,亦已回到雙普選爭拗之前。勢頭能否持續,就要看中央及特區政府如何回應巿民新一浪的訴求了。 Because people's trust in the Central Government has increased, their confidence in 'one country, two systems' has also rebounded to the level registered in February 2002. However, if we look at the half-yearly figures on a macro level, people's trust in the local government, their confidence in the future of Hong Kong and 'one country, two systems', have all recovered to that before the July 1 Rally of 2003. People's trust in the Central Government has also recovered to that before the dispute over universal suffrage broke out. Whether the trends would continue or not depends very much on how the local and central governments would react to people's new wave of demands. |
7-Sep-04 | 最新調查顯示,市民對一國兩制的信心、對中央及特區政府的信任程度,都同步回升,似乎已經抵消了人大釋法的影響。市民對特區政府的信任程度,更加回復到接近2002年中的水平。市民對中央政府的信任能否維持升勢,則要視乎中央官員在選舉前後的言論和回應。 Our latest survey shows a rebound in people's confidence in 'one country, two systems', and in their trust in both the Central and SAR Governments. The effect brought by NPC's interpretation of the Basic Law seems to have gone. People's trust in the SAR Government has almost recovered to that of mid-2002. Whether people's trust in the Central Government will continue to grow or not, would depend very much on how Central Government officials would react to the Legislative Council election. |
6-Jul-04 | 調查在七一遊行前進行,離開人大釋法後已有一段時間。市民對對特區政府的信任程度,基本上回復到釋法之前,但對中央政府的信任程度,和對一國兩制的信心,則仍未復以前。但從中央官員近日比較溫和的言論看,有關數字有機會在下次的調查中向上調升。 The survey was conducted before the July 1 Rally. It seems that people's trust in the SAR Government has recovered to that before the interpretation of the Basic Law by Standing Committee of the NPC, which is already some time ago. People's trust in the Central Government and their confidence in one country two systems, on the other hand, have not recovered. However, judging from the relatively mild statements made by Central Government officials lately, such figures may well rebound in our next round of survey. |
2-Mar-04 | 近日由內地要員發動有關愛國的討論,經已明顯動搖香港市民對中央政府的信心。最新調查顯示,市民對特首董建華及特區政府的信任及滿意程度都有上升,對香港、中國、及一國兩制前途信心的樂觀程度保持平穩,但唯獨對中央政府的信任程度,就在兩個月內下跌7個百分比。如果內地要員繼續強調愛國等於愛黨,則中央政府在回歸以來,在香港市民心目中建立的正面形象,將會受到嚴重的衝擊。 The recent controversy on patriotism ignited by authorities in the Mainland has taken its toll, on the Central Government itself. Our latest survey found that Hong Kong people's trust in the Central Government has dropped 7 percentage points in 2 months, in spite of more positive ratings on CH Tung and the SARG. People's confidence in the future of Hong Kong, China and one country two systems has basically remained unchanged. If our Mainland authorities continue to equate patriotism with loving the Communist Party, it will have a very damaging effect on the image of the Central Government, an image which Beijing has tried so hard to instill among Hong Kong people after the handover |
14-Oct-03 | 市民對中央政府的信任程度、一國兩制及中國前途的信心,在過去兩個月保持穩定,後者更高企在八成以上。 People's trust in the Beijing Central Government, their confidence in 'one country, two systems' and the future of China, have all remained stable. The figure for the last item has remained high, at more than 80%. |
2-Sep-03 | 數字顯示,巿民對中港政府的信任程度、對香港前途、和對一國兩制的信心都全面回升,到達今年的高位。 Results showed that people's trust in the local and central governments, their confidence in Hong Kong's future and in one country, two systems have all rebounded to reach their peaks this year. |
25-Feb-03 | 是次調查中各項指標差不多全面下跌,顯示市民對政府的不滿情緒繼續增長。值得一提:市民對「一國兩制」的信心自去年2月便不斷下跌,與沒有信心者的距離已收窄至不足10個百分比,這現象前所未見,中央及特區政府不容忽視。 Practically all indicators have dropped in this round of survey. People's dissatisfaction with the government has continued to grow. There is one more important point to note: people's confidence in one country, two systems has continued to drop since February last year. At present, confidence is only ahead of non-confidence for less than 10 percentage points, which is unprecedented. Both the central and local governments should pay attention to this. |
28-Jun-99 | 對一國兩制的信心方面,在回歸第二年度,信心下跌走勢與「香港前途」信心略有不同,在回歸後首三個半年度(即九七年下半至九八年下半)表示對「一國兩制」有信心者比率大致徘徊於六成半左右,沒有明顯變動。直至九九上半年,表示有信心之平均比率下跌至五成八,沒有信心者則佔二成八,顯示在回歸第二年度的後半段期間,市民對「一國兩制」信心明顯驟降,可能與「港人內地子女居留權」事件有關。 |
26-Apr-99 | 數字顯示,過去四年市民對香港前途及「一國兩制」信心最具信心的時候是九七年九至十月之間,當時前者高達八成半,後者則有七成三,可說是回歸蜜月期之極點。及後不少事情陸續湧現,影響信心。根據民意研究組在本月中進行的最新調查顯示,六成四市民表示對香港前途有信心,六成一表示對「一國兩制」有信心,情況可謂不過不失。 |
29-Jun-98 | 信心程度方面,九八年最新五至六月調查顯示,四成九被訪者表示對香港前途的信心在回歸後有所減少,三成二表示沒有轉變,一成七表示有所增加。另外,三成九表示對一國兩制信心在回歸前後沒有轉變,三成二表示信心有所增加,而其餘二成六則表示信心減少。對比兩個項目的信心程度,可見市民對一國兩制信心的波幅較小,而且信心略有增加,至於市民對香港前途的信心則在回歸後一直下跌,相信與本港的經濟及社會環境的變化有直接關係。 - |
23-Jun-98 | 市民對一國兩制的信心,似乎與市民對香港前途的信心有同步的發展,信心水平略低但較為穩定。除九七年十一、十二月以外,一直均維持在六成以上,這大底與回歸以來沒有發生太大的政治事故有關。 - |
Dec-97 | 對「一國兩制」的信心方面,在九七年平均有六成一的被訪者(全年成功樣本為一萬一千二百四十五個)表示對「一國兩制」有信心,認為沒有信心的有二成一。對比過去四年數據,今年同樣是港人對「一國兩制」最有信心的一年;而對比九六年,「有信心」的被訪者比率在今年上升達一成七。 an average of 61% of the respondents in 1997 were confident of 「one country, two systems」 (out of a total of 11,245 successful cases). Only 21% were not confident. The level of confidence in 「one country, two systems」 has increased significantly by 17% from 1996 to 1997. |
Oct-96 | 對於九七年後本港實行『一國兩制』,三年多來港人的信心變化不大,整體趨勢大至上升,有信心的比率介乎三成至五成之間。除了九六年三月有信心的被訪者有五成一外,其餘時間都不足五成被訪者對『一國兩制』有信心。相對之下,市民對香港整體前途的信心比對『一國兩制』的信心高。由九四年五月的最低只有四成九被訪者有信心至本年九月達歷年最高的七成被訪者對本港前途有信心。 Result shows that people』s confidence in the implementation of 「one country, two systems」 in Hong Kong has remained between 30% to 50%, fluctuated somewhat but generally with an upward trend. So far, it has remained below 50%, except for March 1996 when it rose to 51%. In comparison, people were more confident in Hong Kong』s overall future than in the notion of 「one country, two systems」. The confidence level rose from the 49% low in May 1994 to 70% in September 1996, the highest level ever recorded. |