分析評論返回
發放日期 Released data |
分析評論 Commentary |
1-Mar-05 | 董建華的民望評分重上48分,與剛發表施政報告後一樣,仍然屬於窄幅波動,而反對他出任特首者,則維持在三分二的比率。巿民對特首施政方針及特區政府表現的不滿比率,近來有下跌的跡象,但滿意比率就沒有明顯上升,因為愈來愈多巿民對有關問題回答「一半半」。由於調查期間尚未傳出董建華出任全國政協委員,甚至是政協副主席的消息,有關任命如何影響其民望,將有待觀察。 Tung Chee-hwa』s popularity rating has gone back to 48 marks, same as what was recorded immediately after he delivered his policy address this year. However, this was still a kind of narrow fluctuation, and those who opposed him as the CE remained constantly at two-thirds. People』s dissatisfaction rates of CE』s policy direction and the performance of the HKSAR Government have both gone down recently, but the satisfaction rates have not gone up much, because more and more people have taken a 『half-half』 position in these issues. Since the appointment of Tung as a member, or even vice-chairman, of the Chinese People』s Political Consultative Conference was not yet known during the survey period, the effect of the appointment on his popularity rating is yet to be seen. |
8-Feb-05 | 董建華的民望在一月底至二月初之間差不多完全沒有改變,繼續在46至48分之間窄幅上落,而反對他出任特首者,則維持在三分二的比率。至於巿民對施政報告的反應,兩個多星期過後,滿意施政報告的市民明顯減少,顯示報告的正面效應已經消失。市民仍然比較受落『合力發展經濟、共建和諧社會』的主題,但接近半數巿民認為特首認錯未能以平復巿民的不滿,超過七成估計特首在未來一年不能達到其施政目標,數字都差於即時調查的結果。 There was almost no change in Tung Chee-hwa』s popularity rating between late January and early February, it fluctuated between the narrow range of 46 to 48 marks. Those who opposed him as the CE remained constantly at two-thirds. Regarding people』s receptiveness of the Policy Address, there was an obvious drop in people』s enthusiasm, as more people said they were not happy. People were still quite satisfied with the theme of 『Working Together for Economic Development and Social Harmony』, but almost half said Tung』s confession of deficiencies could not alleviate people』s dissatisfaction. More than 70% believed Tung could not achieve his target in the year ahead. These figures were generally much poorer than those registered in the instant poll. |
1-Feb-05 | 董建華的最新民望評分與一月初時差不多,施政報告的作用似乎已經減退。 The effect of the policy address has subsided, as Tung Chee-hwa』s popularity rating returns to that of early January. |
13-Jan-05 | 今年施政報告有56.3分,屬於連任後的高位。在得悉報告內容的被訪者中,38%表示滿意,也是近年來最高。對於『合力發展經濟、共建和諧社會』的主題,77%表示切合社會需要。由此看來,巿民似乎對施政報告有不錯的評價。不過,依然有45%認為特首承認施政失誤未能平復巿民的不滿,63%沒有信心特首能夠在未來一年落實他的施政方針。問題似乎不是在於施政報告的內容,而是對特首本人的信心。特首和特區政府適宜繼續查找不足,對症下藥。 This year』s Policy Address scored 56.3 marks, which is the highest among CE』s second term addresses. Among respondents who had heard of the Policy Address, 38% said they were satisfied, which is also the highest figure in recent years. Regarding the theme of 『Working Together for Economic Development and Social Harmony』, 77% believed it was in line with the current needs of the society. It thus seems that people are rather positive about this year』s address. However, 45% of respondents said CE』s admission of the mistakes he has made could not alleviate people's dissatisfaction, while 63% said they were not confident that CE could achieve his targets in the coming year. The problem lies seemingly not in the content of the Policy Address, but people』s confidence in the CE himself. CE and the SAR Government had better continue to investigate their deficiencies and then take immediate remedial actions. |
7-Dec-04 | 董建華的民望評分雖然繼續在48至50分之間徘徊,但半個月來卻下跌了0.7分,而反對其出任特首的比率亦相應上升了5個百分比。特區政府應有心理準備去面對另外一次管治危機。 Tung Chee-hwa』s popularity rating continued to fluctuate between 48 and 50 marks, it has dropped 0.7 mark over the last two weeks, and those against him as Chief Executive has gone up by 5 percentage points. The SAR government should better prepare itself, at least mentally, for another governance crisis. |
23-Nov-04 | 特首董建華的民望評分自9月起便在48至50分之間徘徊,未有突破。 Our survey shows that CE Tung Chee-hwa』s popularity rating has been fluctuating between 48 and 50 marks since September this year, without any breakthrough. |
9-Nov-04 | 特首董建華的民望評分在過去兩個月來,都是在48至50分之間徘徊,未有突破。 Our survey shows that CE Tung Chee-hwa』s popularity rating has been fluctuating between 48 and 50 marks in the last two months, without any significant breakthrough. |
26-Oct-04 | 董建華的民望評分在過去半個月基本上沒有改變,在9月下旬重上50分後,又再次回落到49分附近徘徊。 Our survey shows that Tung Chee-hwa』s popularity has not changed much over the past two weeks, it hit the benchmark of 50 in late September, and then retracted to hover around 49. |
12-Oct-04 | 董建華的民望評分在重上50分後,再度回落。跌幅雖然仍在誤差範圍之內,但升勢就明顯停止,值得注意。董建華近期在處理問責制官員任命時備受批評,對其民望有一定影響。 Tung Chee-hwa』s popularity rating has dropped back again after reaching the benchmark of 50. Although the drop was within the range of the sampling error, the upward trend has apparently stopped, which calls for attention. Tung was recently criticized for the way he has handled the appointment of Principal Officials, his popularity might have been affected to a certain extent. |
28-Sep-04 | 董建華的民望評分兩年來首次重上50分的水平,與特區政府的民望同步回升。翻查紀錄,特首和特區政府現時的民望水平,雖然仍屬負面,但已經回復到2002年中的數字。當時,董建華剛剛連任特首,官員問責制度開始起步,但基本法23條的討論還未開展,沙士亦未爆發。從民望起跌而言,特首和特區政府能夠重新起步,應該要好好把握。 Tung Chee-hwa』s popularity rating has now reached the benchmark of 50, first time in two years. The popularity of the SAR Government has also rebounded. Although the popularity of both is still on the downside, they have recovered to the level of mid-2002, when Tung started his second term of office. At that time, the accountability system for principle officials has just begun, controversies surrounding the Article 23 of the Basic Law have not yet started, while SARS was not yet known. In terms of popularity, the Chief Executive and SAR Government seem to be starting afresh. They should really treasure this opportunity. |
16-Sep-04 | 調查在立法會選舉期間進行,董建華的民望繼續從5月中的低位反覆上升,但升勢有放緩的跡象。 Our survey conducted during the LegCo election shows that Tung Chee-hwa』s popularity has continued, but apparently slowed down, its upward trend since mid-May. |
31-Aug-04 | 董建華的民望在5月中跌至今年低點,然後反覆上升。8月底的評分雖然不算新高,但累積升幅已有6分,算是超過一個5分級別,但就仍然未及50分的基準。 After dropping to this year』s record low in mid-May, Tung Chee-hwa』s popularity rating has fluctuated upward. Although his latest rating in late August is not a new high, he has accumulated about 6 marks in the rebound, which is about one tier upward, using 5-mark separations. He is, however, still below the benchmark of 50. |
10-Aug-04 | 董建華的民望在7月低急升後有所回落,但似乎已經脫離45分的信任危險線。 Our latest tracking survey shows that Tung Chee-hwa』s popularity has dropped back a bit, after its big surge in late July. It seems that he is now safe from the credibility crisis level of 45 marks. |
3-Aug-04 | 董建華的民望在七一效應過後,再次回復5月中開始的上升軌跡。最新評分是48.3分,是2002年10月中以來最高,明顯是受惠於近期比較溫和的政治氣候,及問責高官請辭的效應。不過,支持董建華出任特首者仍然偏低,只得20%。 The survey shows that Tung Chee-hwa』s popularity has gone back to its upward trend again, which began in mid-May but suffered a short break after the July 1 Rally. His latest rating is 48.3 marks, which is the highest since mid-October 2002. Tung is obviously benefiting from the more relaxed political atmosphere, as well as the positive effect due to the resignation of a senior official under the accountability system. However, Tung』s popularity is still on the low side, as only 20% gave him a vote of confidence. |
13-Jul-04 | 調查是在七一遊行後、立法會沙士報告發表之前進行。董建華的民望再次回落,應該是受到七一遊行的影響。 The survey was conducted after the July 1 Rally, but before the Legislative Council SARS Report was released. Tung Chee-hwa』s popularity dropped again, probably due to the big rally. |
29-Jun-04 | 特首董建華的民望繼續回升,而市民對特區政府的不滿程度亦有回落。董建華的民望雖然仍處於低位,但已經回升至45分以上,是3月下旬以來首次,相信是受惠於近期比較溫和的政治氣候,及其與民主黨派會面有關。 Our latest survey shows that the popularity of the Chief Executive has continued to recover, while people's dissatisfaction with the SAR government receded. Although Tung's popularity is still at a very low level, it has gone back to 45 marks for the first time since late March. Tung is probably riding on the warm wind which is defrosting the relationship between the democrats and the Central Government, and his recent meetings with the democrats seem to have helped. |
8-Jun-04 | 特首董建華的民望雖然仍處於低位,但在6月初已經明顯回升,相信是由於人大有關普選的決定已經漸成過去,和特首近期比較高調肯定言論自由有關。 Our latest survey shows that the popularity of the Chief Executive has rebounded somewhat in early June, even though it is still at a very low level. |
25-May-04 | 特首及特區政府的民望,現時都跌至去年八月以來的新低,高過去年七月的數字,但就低過去年六月的數字。換言之,兩者其實開始貼近去年七一遊行前夕的狀況。 The survey shows that the popularity of both the Chief Executive and the SAR Government are at their lowest since August last year. They are higher than the July 2003 figures, but lower than those of June 2003. In other words, the situation is getting like that before July 1 last year. |
11-May-04 | 調查在人大釋法及否決07/08雙普選後進行,結果顯示,行政長官、問責官員及立法會議員的民望都較釋法前下跌。部分跌幅較大的官員和議員,其實包括了支持和反對人大雙方。結合較早前民意研究計劃公佈,有關市民對政府的信任程度和一國兩制信心的調查結果,顯示在目前的政改爭拗中,特區政府、中央政府、立法會議員、以至香港市民,已經踏入一個『四輸』的局面。 The survey was conducted after NPC interpreted the Basic Law as well as vetoed universal suffrage in 2007/08. It shows that the popularity of the Chief Executive, the principal officials and Legco members have all dropped. Among those whose popularity ratings have significantly dropped are those in favour of NPC's rulings, and those against. Coupled with HKU POP's earlier release on people's trust and confidence, it seems that, under the current debates of political reforms, the SAR Government, the Central Government, Legislative Councillors, as well as Hong Kong people, have entered into an all-lose scenario. |
27-Apr-04 | 調查在人大釋法後、但尚未否決07/08雙普選前進行,特首董建華的民望在跌至谷底後略有回升,但相信在人大否決普選後會再有下調壓力。 The survey was conducted after NPC interpreted the Basic Law, but before it vetoed universal suffrage in 2007/08. The popularity of CH Tung has rebounded a bit, but would certainly face pressure again after NPC's new ruling. |
13-Apr-04 | 調查在中央政府宣佈人大再次釋法後進行。結果顯示,特區官員及行政會議成員的民望差不多全線下跌,而特首董建華的評分更加是三個月來新低,明顯是受到釋法的影響。特區政府如果不能妥善處理市民在釋法後的疑慮和不安,將可能要面對另一次信任危機。 The survey was conducted after the Central Government announced its intention to interpret the Basic Law again. Findings show that the popularity ratings of almost all officials and Executive Councillors have gone down, and that of CH Tung has plunged to a 3-month low, reflecting the negative effect of the move. If the SAR Government does not* handle people's post-interpretation anxiety properly, it may have to face yet another credibility crisis. |
30-Mar-04 | 調查在台灣總統選舉剛剛結束、中央政府尚未宣佈人大再次釋法前進行。結果顯示,董建華的得分重上46分,而支持率亦大致回復到其在人大及政協會議期間講話前的水平。 The survey was conducted right after the Taiwan presidential election, but before the Central Government announced its intention to interpret the Basic Law again. Findings show that CH Tung's rating has recovered to the 46-mark level, while his support rate has gone back to the time before he made his remarks during the annual sessions of the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference. |
9-Mar-04 | 特首董建華的得分重上45分,與一個月前差不多,支持率則接近兩成,算是略有起色。不過,董建華的最新民望數字,是在其出席全國人大政協會議前錄得,其在兩會期間講話的效應則有待觀察。 CE Tung Chee-hwa's rating has again climbed back to the 45-mark level, which is fairly similar to that registered a month ago. Meanwhile, his support rate has almost reached 20%, which can be taken as a slight improvement. These figures, however, were registered before Tung attended the annual sessions of the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, and the effect of his remarks in Beijing is yet to be seen. |
10-Feb-04 | 最新調查顯示,特首及大部份問責官員的評分都有上升,而特首董建華更是4個月來首次重上45分。 The latest figures indicated that ratings of the CE and most Principal Officials have increased, and Tung's rating has climbed back to the 45-mark level for the first time in 4 months. |
3-Feb-04 | 農曆新年過後,董建華的民望輕微回升,反對其出任特首者回落至63%,但仍然是很高的數字。 The popularity of CH Tung recovered a bit after the Chinese New Year, as his disapproval rate dropped back to 63%, which is still a very high figure. |
8-Jan-04 | 今年施政報告只得49.3分,首次不合格,及屬於有記錄以來最低,大概是受制於特首個人的民望,多於報告的內容。市民似乎比較受落『把握發展機遇、推動民本施政』的主題,但就只有很少市民認為,施政報告能夠回應巿民對政府改善施政的期望。對於政制檢討,市民的初步意見呈現三分:認為巿民的訴求已經得到回應、未獲得回應、及不置可否者,各佔三分一左右。此外,市民普遍認為特首有需要在發表施政報告後,直接同市民對話,董建華不肯面對群眾,又一次錯過了提升民望的機會。 This year's policy address scored only 49.3 marks, a record low as well as the first time below the passing mark of 50. This was probably due to CE's poor popularity, rather than the actual contents of the address. People seemed to be quite satisfied with the theme of Seizing Opportunities for Development: Promoting People-based Governance, but very few said it could answer their expectation of better governance. As on constitutional review, there was a trio-split of opinions in people's initial reaction: about one-third said people's demands have been answered, one-third said no, another one-third did not comment. Finally, most people said CE should face the public directly after he presented his Policy Address. In evading the public, Tung has once again missed the opportunity to push up his popularity. |
30-Dec-03 | 調查在特首委任區議員前進行,董建華的民望仍然在低位徘徊,而特區政府的民望則略有起色。但以半年計,兩者同樣處於歷史低位。至於市民在年底的回顧前瞻,則似乎有否極泰來的趨勢。過去十年,除了1998年外,2003是最少市民感到快樂的一年。不過,對於來年的展望,預計正面發展者則是十年新高,大概是認為最壞的時期經已過去。」 The survey was conducted before CE made his appointment of District Councillors, his popularity was still in the low. SARG's popularity, however, has recovered a bit, but in terms of half-yearly averages, both of them were at historic low. Regarding people's year-end appraisals, however, the tide seems to have turned. Except for the year of 1998, for the past ten years, 2003 was people's least happy year. However, their expectation of the year to come has been very positive, much higher than any of the past ten years. People probably think that the worst is over. |
9-Dec-03 | 特首董建華及問責官員的民望在區議會選舉後全線下跌,顯示區選可能觸動了市民的不滿情緒。 The popularity of CH Tung and all Principal Officials have both gone down after the District Council Election, probably because the election has triggered people's discontent. |
25-Nov-03 | 特首董建華及特區政府的民望在區議會選舉前都雙雙下跌,董建華現時的民望已經明顯處在信任危機線下。可以預期,特首如何處理區議會委任議席的問題可以是另一次危機的觸發點,政府適宜審慎從事,或可考慮在委任前先諮詢民意。 The popularity of CE Tung and the SAR Government has both gone down, right before the District Council Election. CE's rating is now significantly below the credibility crisis level, and the government must handle prudently what could be the next crisis - that of appointing members into the District Councils. Maybe it should consult the people first. |
11-Nov-03 | 是次調查進行期間,「維港巨星匯」及「王見秋事件」仍在發展當中。調查數字顯示,特首董建華的民望則沒有明顯變化,仍在45分信任危機線上下徘徊。 During the survey period, recent controversies surrounding 'Hong Kong Harbour Fest' and Michael Wong Kin-chow were yet to be settled. According to our figures, there was no significant change in CE Tung's popularity, which still floats around the 45-mark credibility crisis level. |
28-Oct-03 | 特首董建華的民望則在近月徐徐回升後再次下跌,在45分信任危機線上下徘徊。董建華現時的民望,大概是等於2003上半年的平均數,亦即七一遊行前半年的平均值。特首要突破其民望的困局,似乎須要加大力度,同時回應巿民的政治和經濟訴求。 The popularity of CE Tung, however, has also dropped, after its gradual recovery in recent months. He is now floating near the 45-mark credibility crisis level, which is roughly equal to his average score for the first half of 2003, or the 6 months before the July 1 Demonstration. It seems that if Tung is to get out of this difficult situation, he will have to do much more in answering people's political and economic demands at the same time. |
7-Oct-03 | 特首董建華民望的升勢放緩,顯示『更緊密經貿關係安排』及撤回國安條例草案的利好因素已被消化。從絕對數值而言,45.5分及二成二的支持率仍然是十分低沉的民望。 CE Tung's popularity rebound has slowed down, meaning that the positive effects of CEPA and the withdrawal of the National Security Bill have been digested. In terms of absolute value, a popularity rating of 45.5 marks and a support rate of 22% are still very poor. |
23-Sep-03 | 特首董建華的民望近期穩步回升,在撤回國家安全條例草案後,評分已經突破45分的信任危機線,回復到2月中『梁錦松買車事件』及『沙士』爆發前的水平。雖然特首及特區政府的民望仍然偏低,但已經解除了近半年來出現的管治危機 The popularity of CE Tung Chee-hwa has made a steady return. With the withdrawal of the National Security Bill, Tung's popularity rating has surpassed the 45-mark credibility crisis level, and returned to where he was before Antony Leung's 'car purchase incident' and the outbreak of SARS. Although the popularity of CE and SARG are still at a low level, the governance crisis of the half-year past is now over. |
9-Sep-03 | 特首董建華的民望在9月初再度上升,但仍然未能突破45分的信任危機線,至於特區政府撤回國家安全條例草案能否進一步提高特首的民望,則仍待觀察。 The popularity of CE Tung Chee-hwa has continued to climb in early September, but it has yet to break the 45-mark credibility crisis level. Whether the government's decision to withdraw the National Security Bill would further push up Tung's popularity is yet to be seen. |
26-Aug-03 | 特首董建華的民望與8月初相若,仍然處於45分的信任危機線下。特首在公佈新任問責官員名單後民望顯著回升,然後又略為回落,顯示有關任命的利好作用已被消化,特首仍須處理巿民的其他訴求。 The popularity of CE Tung Chee-hwa is more or less the same as that of early August, still below the credibility crisis mark of 45. After the appointment of the new principal officials, his popularity has significantly rebounded. It has now dropped back a bit, meaning that the positive effect brought by such appointments has been digested, and Tung has still to handle the other demands of the people. |
12-Aug-03 | 特首董建華及所有官員在過去一個月的民望都從谷底顯著回升5至6分左右,可算回升一級。 Over the month past, the popularity ratings of C.H. Tung and the principal officials have all rebounded 5 to 6 marks, more or less equal to a jump of one grade. |
24-Jul-03 | 有關特首及特區政府民望的最新數字,並未顯示兩位問責官員辭職、特首上京述職、及特首在述職前後講話的效應。各項指標的負面比率全部創出歷史新高,明顯是受到七一遊行的影響。特首的民望從谷底回升3分,勢頭有所轉變,但仍未渡過危險時期。 The latest figures on the popularity of the CE and the SARG have not yet reflected the effects of two principal officials' resignation, CE's duty visit to Beijing, and his open remarks before and after that trip. The mass demonstration on July 1 has pushed all dissatisfaction figures to their record high. CE's rating has rebounded 3 points after that, but he is still in a critical condition. |
24-Jun-03 | 特首董建華的評分再次回落至45分以下,而其他指標都可謂『比四月升、與五月平』,顯示肺炎疫情消減的正面作用已開始被其他消息掩蓋。失業率急升和基本法二十三條立法已經成為新的焦點。至於回歸總結方面,所有關於特首及特區政府的『半年結』數字都是處於六年來新低,包括特首評分、市民對董建華施政方針的滿意程度、對特區政府表現的滿意程度、對特區政府的信任程度、對香港前途的信心及對一國兩制的信心。當中,市民對董建華施政方針近半年的滿意程度平均只有一成三。 The rating of CE Tung Chee-hwa has once again dropped below the 45-mark level, while the results of other indicators could be described as better than April, but same as May. This shows that the positive impact brought by the alleviation of SARS has begun to be overridden by other news. The surge in unemployment rate and the legislation of Article 23 are now in the limelight. As for the anniversary wrap-up, as far as half-yearly averages are concerned, all indicators of CE and HKSARG's performances are at their record lows since the handover. These include the rating of CE, people's satisfaction with his policy direction, their appraisal of the performance of the HKSAR Government, their trust in the HKSAR Government, their confidence in Hong Kong's future, and their confidence in one country, two systems. Among them, the latest averages of people's satisfaction with C |
10-Jun-03 | 特首董建華的評分已重上45分的水平,基本上回復至二月初的情況,顯示梁錦松稅前買車和肺炎事件對特首民望的衝擊已告一段落。 The rating of CE Tung Chee-hwa has climbed back to the 45-mark level, more or less to that registered in early February. This shows that the impact on CE's popularity caused by FS Antony Leung Kam-chung's car purchase incident and the SARS outbreak has come to an end. |
27-May-03 | 在肺炎疫情逐漸過去後,巿民對特首董建華的評分、對其施政方針的滿意程度、以及對特區政府整體表現的滿意程度,都全面回升。特首董建華的最新評分為44.2分,接近2月中的水平,仍然貼近危險界線。至於其他滿意程度的指標,大都回復至1月底的水平。換言之,肺炎疫情對政府民望帶來的衝擊可謂暫告一段落。 As the SARS epidemic gradually subsides, people's rating of CE Tung Chee-hwa, their satisfaction with his policy direction, and their appraisal of the performance of the SAR Government in general have all rebounded. The latest rating of Tung was 44.2 marks, which has almost gone back to that of mid-February, although still narrowly within the danger zone. Meanwhile, the other satisfaction indicators have by and large gone back to the level registered in late January. In other words, the impact on the government's credibility caused by the SARS outbreak has somewhat come to an end for the time being. |
13-May-03 | 特首董建華的評分在肺炎疫情舒緩後重上40分的水平,危機雖得以緩和,但其民望仍然處於低位。 As the outbreak of SARS is contained, CE Tung Chee-hwa's rating has climbed back to the level of 40s. This is still a very low score, in spite of the alleviation. |
29-Apr-03 | 是次調查的主要發現,是特首董建華的民望繼續下跌,並首次跌破40分的關口。董建華現時的民望可謂不言而喻。 The most prominent finding of this survey is that Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa's popularity rating has continued to drop, and broke the 40-mark level for the first time. Tung's current popularity very much speaks for itself. |
15-Apr-03 | 董建華的評分是在三月下旬才從低位再次跌至歷史新低,這就反映了巿民對其處理肺炎事件的不滿。 CE Tung Chee-hwa's record-low popularity rating, on the other hand, might well have reflected people's dissatisfaction with his way of handling atypical pneumonia (SARS), because his rating only began to drop again in late March, to another historic low |
25-Mar-03 | 市民對董建華施政方針的滿意程度首次跌破一成,而對整個特區政府的滿意程度亦只有一成二,正正反映了市民對現狀的不滿。董建華的評分在處理梁錦松事件前後變化不大,3月份的平均分大約是43.5分,比2月份下跌2分。事件似乎影響政府的威信多於特首本人。 The fact that people's satisfaction with CE's policy direction fell below 10% for the first time, and that their satisfaction with the entire government was only 12%, is a clear reflection of their dissatisfaction with the current situation. CE's rating changed very little before and after he handled the Antony Leung Affair. His average popularity rating in March was around 43.5 marks, representing a drop of 2 marks from February. It seems that the recent incident has affected the government's credibility more than CE's personal rating. |
25-Feb-03 | 特首董建華的民望繼續於45分的水平低位徘徊,沒有起色,兼且貼近1月底的歷史低位。以外國民望的標準,董建華其實只有二成至二成半左右的支持率,屬於危險的水平。 The popularity rating of CE Tung is again near its record low registered in late January. According to conventional standards used in other countries, Tung's current approval rate is only around 20% to 25%, which could be a dangerous level. |
28-Jan-03 | 特首董建華的評分自去年8月起連續半年處於50分之下,並屢創新低,情況前所未有。若採用外國慣用的民望標準,即巿民明日會否投票支持某位領袖,或是否認許該領袖的表現,則特首董建華現時的民望只得二成至二成半左右。以民主社會而論,屬於危險的水平。特區政府適宜採取措施,避免觸發管治危機。自去年12月中至今年1月中的一個月內,市民對董建華及其施政方針的滿意程度則明顯下跌,反映施政報告發表後,巿民已把不滿情緒聚焦到特首身上。 CE Tung Chee-hwa's popularity rating has by now remained consistently lower than the benchmark of 50 for 6 consecutive months since August last year, frequently setting record lows. This is unprecedented. Had conventional standards used in other countries been applied, like asking whether people would vote for certain leaders tomorrow, or whether they approve the performance of a certain leader, CE Tung's current approval rate would have only been around 20% to 25%, which is a dangerous level for leaders in democratic societies. It is time for the government to draw up measures in order to steer clear of any governance crisis. The popularity rating of Tung and people's satisfaction with his policy direction have both dropped significantly between mid-December and mid-January. This indicates that people have begun to focus their feeling of dissatisfaction on Tung after he announced his Policy Address. |
9-Jan-03 | 施政報告對特首董建華的民望在低位中有穩定作用,部份以前不滿施政方針者在施政報告發表後轉持觀望態度。市民對香港前途的信心基本上沒有改變,只有七分之一市民認為施政報告的政策能夠掁興香港的經濟。對於特首「背靠祖國」的言論,市民傾向反對這是香港過去成功的主要因素,但就傾向認同這是香港未來發展的策略。 CE's Policy Address has a stabilizing effect on CE's popularity at its lower end, quite some respondents who were dissatisfied with his policy direction in the past have changed to a wait-and-see position. People's confidence in Hong Kong's future has remained practically unchanged, whereas only 1 in 7 people believed that CE's policies could revitalize the local economy. People tend to disagree with CE's analysis that Hong Kong's past successes were attributed mostly to the Mainland factor. However, regarding future development, people tend to agree with the CE that Hong Kong needs the backing of the Mainland. |
29-Jun-99 | 論回歸第二年度走勢,九八年八月董建華按月平均分曾一度跌至54.5分,是回歸第二年度的最低點。及後,經過港府八月底的托市行動後,其按月平均評分在九月回升至58.7分(於九八年九月七日的調查中,董建華更獲得63.7分,乃市民對董特首於回歸後第二年度最高的一次評價)。其後,特首於發表施政報告後,大底市民對該報告有不滿之處,董特首所獲評分又有回落趨勢,在九八年十月期間徘徊於55分左右的水平。其後於十一及十二月分數較為穩定,一般處於57至58分之間。不過,及至今年一、二月期間,相信是受終審庭風波及梁愛詩事件影響後,其評分又滑落至55、56分左右。及至九九年三月下半月至五月期間,繼特首成功邀請政務司司長陳方安生留任及特區政府公佈第二份財政預算案後,董建華評分再次回升至58、59分的最高水平。董建華的評分在過往一年可算是隨著特區的風風雨雨而起伏不定。 |
28-Apr-99 | 至於特首董建華方面,最新四月調查顯示其得分已回落至去年十二月時的相約分數,是次得五十八點九分。顯然,三月期間市民認同董建華邀請陳氏留任的決定及肯定曾蔭權作為財政司司長的能力而推高對董與曾的評價,及至四月,兩者所獲評價逐步回落至原來位置。 |
31-Mar-99 | 從本研究組三月二十五日的調查結果發現,陳方安生的留任的確間接令三人所獲的評價均一致提升,董建華所獲評分由三月十八日調查的五十七點七分上升至最新調查的六十點三分,上升二點六分,乃自去年十月以來的最高位。陳方安生的得分方面,在最新調查中升至自去年九月政府托市以後的最高位,得六十九點六分,較去年十二月的六十六點四分上升三點二分。至於曾蔭權,其得分亦顯著上升,可謂與陳氏並駕齊驅,在最新調查中獲六十九點三分的評價,較去年十二月調查上升八點二分,屬三者中升幅最強勁的一位。整體而言,三位人士所獲的最新評價,反映市民普遍接受及歡迎陳方安生的留任,並認同董建華邀請陳氏留任的決定,同時也進一步肯定曾蔭權作為財政司司長的能力。 |
Jan-99 | 若論九八年的走勢,董建華在九八年得分最高位為三四月間,按月平均分均超過六十分,而其最低位則主要是八月至十月期間,平均得分約五十五分左右。單比較九八上下半年數字,市民對特首評價是上半年較下半年好,不過,整體而言,從十一及十二月的調查數據可以看出,特首評分在年底有輕微回升趨勢。 |
Sep-98 | 正當新機場失誤事件漸漸成為過去,市民的注意力逐漸轉移至特首第二份施政報告的時候,特區政府突然高調干預市場,使民情再度起伏不平。從政治角度考慮,政府拓市意圖擊退炒家,確實為特首及高官挽回不少聲望,民意研究組的調查顯示市民是支持政府行動居多,而特首的支持度亦已由八月的谷底續步回升。 As the chaos surrounding the opening of the new airport fades away in people』s memory, the government』s unprecedented intervention in the stock market made everybody』s nerves stand on their ends. As it turned out, the government was politically sound, at least in the short term, to intervene. There were more people in support of the government』s action than against it. The ratings of both the Chief Executive and the SAR Government recovered after the intervention. |
2-Sep-98 | 市民對董建華及特區政府表現的評價之滿意程度均有上升趨勢。就董建華評分而言,其於八月初得五十二點九分,乃回歸以來的最低位,及至八月十八至十九日調查,其得分開始輕微回升至五十四點二分;再於八月三十一日調查(即托市行動之後)則發現,市民給予董建華的平均分數為五十六點四分,較八月初調查上升三點五分。至於市民對特區政府表現評價方面,八月初調查顯示,只有一成九被訪者表示對特區政府的表現滿意,及至八月底調查,此比率回升至二成八,較月初調查上升九個百分比。總括而言,市民一般頗認同政府是次在經濟層面上的托市行動,因而相對地,特首評分及政府滿意程度亦有同時上升趨勢。 |
3-Jul-98 | 調查結果顯示,市民對董建華的最新評分為五十七點九分,與對上一次調查結果得分相若,以整個六月四次調查結果而論,董建華所得之平均分為五十五點五分,依然是回歸以來獲得最低分的一個月。董建華在最新兩次調查的得分只屬輕微上升,意味著市民對董提出的措施仍然抱一定的觀望及保留態度,看來董建華得分是否能夠重新回升至六十分或以上的水平,相信頗視乎其所提出的措施是否能真正有效解決現時的經濟困局。 |
24-Jun-98 | 董建華出任特首將近一年,在這一年間,本研究組每月均就特首評分進行多次調查,瞭解市民對董特首評價的變化。回顧過去一年,本港社會出現許多變化,而市民對董建華的評價,亦隨著一些社會事件的發而有所不同。按本研究組每月平均數字顯示,九七年七月至九月期間,可算是董建華上任後的「蜜月期」,其平均分數曾高達九七年九月的六十七點七分,這大底因為董建華上任後提出各項改善民生問題的承諾有關。 十月間,首份施政報告發表後,市民似乎對特首有點失望,而董建華的民望亦開始下跌。加上十月份開始的亞洲金融風暴及十二月份的禽流感事件,其民望一直滑落至二月分的五十九點二分。直至三月份政府推出財政預算案,市民對特首的支持程度始反彈回升至六十一點六分,反映財政預算案對市民有一定刺激作用。然而,市民對特首的支持程度未能持續,自四月下旬起再度下跌,並在六月初跌至上任以來的新低,得五十三點六分,而六月份的平均分為五十五點四分。此新一輪的跌幅,明顯與近期本港陷入經濟低迷及失業率高企有關。要不是特首於日前針對低迷的經濟環境高調提出一系列紓緩措施後,挽回一點頹勢,六月份的平均分數還會更低。調查顯示,董建華公佈多項有關措施翌日(即六月二十三日),其所得支持度為五十七點五分,較未公佈該等措施前的調查(六月十六日)輕微高出二點五分,反映市民對特首提出的措施確實寄予一定的期望。然而,特首推出的措施成效多大仍有待觀察,其政策成功與否將會直接影響特首未來民望的發展。 |
19-Jun-98 | 比較董建華及彭定康的表現方面,結果顯示四成四被訪者認為董建華做行政長官的表現較彭定康做港督差,持相反意見的有一成四,另外一成九認為兩位人士表現差不多,其餘二成四則沒有給予意見。換句話說,被訪者傾向認為香港的發展在英國統治下會比在一國兩制下更好,而比較彭定康及董建華的表現,則對前者較為滿意,這可能是對現況不滿的反射。 |
6-Mar-98 | 本研究組三月初進行的特首評分調查發現,市民對特首的支持程度再次回升,在最新三月二日的調查中取得六十一點七分。比較特首在一月下旬的調查中所得的五十七點七分(回歸以後的最低分數)而論,今次可謂首次回升至六十分以上。在同一次進行的調查中,亦同時發現市民對特首在十月發表的施政報告之滿意程度有所增加,有三成一被訪者表示對特首發表的施政報告滿意,比較二月調查的滿意程度上升十二個百分比,亦只僅次於九七年十月市民對施政報告的滿意程度(三成四)。相信特首分數及對施政報告滿意程度的回升,與市民普遍歡迎政府在二月十八日公佈的財政預算案有著一定的關係。 |
Dec-96 | 於推選行政長官即晚進行的民意調查發現,在市民對董建華的最新評分方面,明顯因為其當選特首而有所提升,董建華獲最新評分為七十點一分,是歷次評分中最高分的一次,顯示市民基本上接受董的勝出,及對他近期表現滿意。在要求被訪者評價董建華當選行政長官會否影響他們對香港前途及平穩過渡的信心時,其中大部份被訪者(七至八成)均表示沒有影響,有九個百分比及一成二分別表示會增加其對平穩過渡及香港前途的信心,四至五個百分比表示會減少信心,顯示市民對董建華的未來表現普遍存觀望態度。 The POP team conducted an instant opinion survey in the evening to test people』s reception of the election. Tung Chee-hwa』s success has apparently pushed his popularity rating to a record high of 70.1 marks. This reflected the public』s general acceptance of the result, as well as approval of Tung』s recent performance.However, when respondents were asked whether Tung』s appointment as Chief Executive would affect their confidence in the smooth transition and the future of Hong Kong, the majority denied any effect. This shows that most people were adopting a 「wait-and-see」 attitude towards Tung』s future performance. (December 1996, POP Express) |