2007年第二次特首選舉論壇即時民意調查返回
由香港大學民意研究計劃在2007年3月1日獨立進行的「第一次特首選舉論壇即時民意調查」,部份經費由香港有線電視、南華早報、信報及文匯報聯合贊助,特此鳴謝。根據贊助協議,調查數據首先由贊助機構使用,及後再在本網站公開,作為民研計劃的一項社會服務。各界人士在轉載或引用有關數據時,懇請註明出處。 Conducted independently by the Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong on March 1, 2007, the 「First Survey on Chief Executive Election Forum Instant Poll」 was partly co-sponsored by Cable TV, South China Morning Post, Hong Kong Economic Journal and Wen Wai Po. POP hereby acknowledges their support with thanks. According to our sponsorship agreement, the findings of the instant poll would be used by the sponsors first, and then published at this website some times later as part of POP』s public service. Users of these findings are requested to cite the source appropriately when re-printing or quoting these figures. |
| 調查方法 Survey method | 樣本資料 Contact information | 人口變項 Respondents' demographics | 調查問卷 Full questionnaires | |
| 頻數表 Frequency Tables: Q1– 候選人表現 Candidates』 performance ;
Q2 – 候選人支持率 Support for candidates | | Q3– 論壇前候選支持率 Support for candidates before forum ; Q4 – 被訪者政治取向 Political alignment of respondents | |
| 深入分析 Further Analysis: 人口變項分析數表 Tables of demographic analyses | 人口變項分析圖表 Charts of demographic analyses | |
| 深入分析 Further Analysis: 論壇時段分析數表 Tables of time segment analyses ; 論壇時段分析圖表 Charts of time segment analyses | |
調查日期 Date of survey : 15/3/2007 |
[Q1] 你認為邊位候選人係論壇上表現比較好? |
頻數 Frequency | 百份比 Percentage | |
曾蔭權 Donald Tsang | 200 | 38.9 |
梁家傑 Alan Leong | 202 | 39.3 |
唔知/難講 Don't know/hard to say | 112 | 21.8 |
合計 Total | 514 | 100.0 |
缺數 Missing | 6 |
[Q2]
如果聽日俾你投票選特首,你會選邊個? |
頻數 Frequency | 百份比 Percentage | |
曾蔭權 Donald Tsang | 337 | 68.4 |
梁家傑 Alan Leong | 114 | 23.1 |
空白票/棄權/兩個都唔選 Blank vote/abstention/neither of them |
42 | 8.5 |
合計 Total | 493 | 100.0 |
缺數 Missing | 27 |
[Q3] 係呢個論壇之前,你傾向選邊個呢? |
頻數 Frequency | 百份比 Percentage | |
曾蔭權 Donald Tsang | 340 | 69.1 |
梁家傑 Alan Leong | 102 | 20.7 |
空白票/棄權/兩個都唔選 Blank vote/abstention/neither of them |
50 | 10.2 |
合計 Total | 492 | 100.0 |
缺數 Missing | 28 |
頻數 Frequency | 百份比 Percentage | |
民主派 Pro-democracy | 124 | 23.9 |
親中派 Pro-China | 23 | 4.4 |
中間派 Pro-China | 184 | 35.5 |
冇政治傾向/唔屬於任何派別 No preference | 170 | 32.8 |
唔知/難講 Don't know/hard to say | 17 | 3.3 |
合計 Total | 518 | 100.0 |
缺數 Missing | 2 |
|
曾蔭權 Donald Tsang Yam-kuen |
梁家傑 Alan Leong Kah-kit |
唔知/難講 Don't know/hard to say |
|||||
樣本人數 Total Sample |
頻數 Frequency | 百份比 Percentage | 頻數 Frequency | 百份比 Percentage | 頻數 Frequency | 百份比 Percentage | |
有被訪者 All respondents | 520 | 200 | 38.9% | 202 | 39.3% | 112 | 21.8% |
政治取向 Political inclination | |||||||
民主派 pro-democracy camp | 124 | 31 | 25.2% | 77 | 62.6% | 15 | 12.2% |
親中派 pro-China camp | 23 | 10 | 45.5% | 6 | 27.3% | 6 | 27.3% |
中間派 Moderate camp | 184 | 73 | 40.3% | 74 | 40.9% | 34 | 18.8% |
冇政治傾向/唔屬於任何派別 No preference | 170 | 77 | 45.3% | 43 | 25.3% | 50 | 29.4% |
唔知/難講 Don't know/hard to say | 17 | 9 | 52.9% | 1 | 5.9% | 7 | 41.2% |
性別 Gender | |||||||
男 Male | 248 | 93 | 38.1% | 103 | 42.2% | 48 | 19.7% |
女 Female | 272 | 107 | 39.6% | 99 | 36.7% | 64 | 23.7% |
年齡 Age | |||||||
18-29 | 90 | 30 | 33.3% | 44 | 48.9% | 16 | 17.8% |
30-49 | 204 | 78 | 38.4% | 91 | 44.8% | 34 | 16.7% |
50或以上 50 or above | 222 | 92 | 42.2% | 66 | 30.3% | 60 | 27.5% |
教育程度 Education attainment | |||||||
小學或以下 Primary or below | 92 | 40 | 43.5% | 21 | 22.8% | 31 | 33.7% |
中學 Secondary | 272 | 114 | 42.5% | 100 | 37.3% | 54 | 20.1% |
大專或以上 Tertiary or above | 151 | 46 | 30.7% | 80 | 53.3% | 24 | 16.0% |
職業 Occupation | |||||||
行政及專業人員 Executives and professionals | 118 | 36 | 30.8% | 63 | 53.8% | 18 | 15.4% |
文職及服務人員 Clerical and service workers | 101 | 38 | 38.0% | 37 | 37.0% | 25 | 25.0% |
勞動工人 Production workers | 58 | 20 | 34.5% | 24 | 41.4% | 14 | 24.1% |
學生 Students | 34 | 12 | 35.3% | 17 | 50.0% | 5 | 14.7% |
全職主婦 Housewives | 91 | 41 | 45.1% | 32 | 35.2% | 18 | 19.8% |
其他 Others | 108 | 52 | 50.0% | 23 | 22.1% | 29 | 27.9% |
家庭所屬階級 Family class | |||||||
自稱中層或中上層 Claimed to be middle or upper-middle levels | 208 | 79 | 38.2% | 81 | 39.1% | 47 | 22.7% |
自稱基層或中下層 Claimed to be lower-middle or grassroot levels | 286 | 114 | 40.4% | 110 | 39.0% | 58 | 20.6% |
曾蔭權 Donald Tsang Yam-kuen |
梁家傑 Alan Leong Kah-kit |
唔知/難講 Don't know/hard to say |
|||||
樣本人數 Total Sample |
頻數 Frequency | 百份比 Percentage | 頻數 Frequency | 百份比 Percentage | 頻數 Frequency | 百份比 Percentage | |
有被訪者 All respondents | 520 | 337 | 68.4% | 114 | 23.1% | 42 | 8.5% |
Q1. 你認為邊位候選人係論壇上表現比較好? At the forum, which candidate do you think has performed better? | |||||||
曾蔭權 Donald Tsang | 200 | 183 | 92.4% | 7 | 3.5% | 8 | 4.0% |
梁家傑 Alan Leong | 202 | 83 | 43.0% | 93 | 48.2% | 17 | 8.8% |
唔知/難講 Don't know/hard to say | 112 | 66 | 68.0% | 14 | 14.4% | 17 | 17.5% |
Q3. 係呢個論壇之前,你傾向選邊個呢? Before this forum, which one did you prefer? | |||||||
曾蔭權 Donald Tsang | 340 | 312 | 93.7% | 10 | 3.0% | 11 | 3.3% |
梁家傑 Alan Leong | 102 | 8 | 8.2% | 85 | 86.7% | 5 | 5.1% |
空白票/棄權/兩個都唔選 Blank vote/abstention/neither of them | 50 | 9 | 20.0% | 15 | 33.3% | 21 | 46.7% |
政治取向 Political inclination | |||||||
民主派 pro-democracy camp | 124 | 56 | 48.3% | 51 | 44.0% | 9 | 7.8% |
親中派 pro-China camp | 23 | 18 | 85.7% | 3 | 14.3% | ||
中間派 Moderate camp | 184 | 125 | 69.1% | 39 | 21.5% | 17 | 9.4% |
冇政治傾向/唔屬於任何派別 No preference | 170 | 125 | 77.6% | 21 | 13.0% | 15 | 9.3% |
唔知/難講 Don't know/hard to say | 17 | 13 | 92.9% | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 7.1% |
性別 Gender | |||||||
男 Male | 248 | 157 | 66.2% | 64 | 27.0% | 16 | 6.8% |
女 Female | 272 | 180 | 70.3% | 50 | 19.5% | 26 | 10.2% |
年齡 Age | |||||||
18-29 | 90 | 56 | 64.4% | 25 | 28.7% | 6 | 6.9% |
30-49 | 204 | 133 | 67.9% | 49 | 25.0% | 14 | 7.1% |
50或以上 50 or above | 222 | 147 | 70.7% | 40 | 19.2% | 21 | 10.1% |
教育程度 Education attainment | |||||||
小學或以下 Primary or below | 92 | 60 | 76.9% | 12 | 15.4% | 6 | 7.7% |
中學 Secondary | 272 | 183 | 69.1% | 60 | 22.6% | 22 | 8.3% |
大專或以上 Tertiary or above | 151 | 92 | 62.6% | 42 | 28.6% | 13 | 8.8% |
職業 Occupation | |||||||
行政及專業人員 Executives and professionals | 118 | 73 | 64.0% | 36 | 31.6% | 5 | 4.4% |
文職及服務人員 Clerical and service workers | 101 | 74 | 74.7% | 20 | 20.2% | 5 | 5.1% |
勞動工人 Production workers | 58 | 32 | 59.3% | 16 | 29.6% | 6 | 11.1% |
學生 Students | 34 | 18 | 52.9% | 11 | 32.4% | 5 | 14.7% |
全職主婦 Housewives | 91 | 63 | 72.4% | 17 | 19.5% | 7 | 8.0% |
其他 Others | 108 | 73 | 74.5% | 13 | 13.3% | 12 | 12.2% |
家庭所屬階級 Family class | |||||||
自稱中層或中上層 Claimed to be middle or upper-middle levels | 208 | 138 | 69.0% | 48 | 24.0% | 14 | 7.0% |
自稱基層或中下層 Claimed to be lower-middle or grassroot levels | 286 | 187 | 68.2% | 63 | 23.0% | 24 | 8.8% |
|
曾蔭權 Donald Tsang Yam-kuen |
梁家傑 Alan Leong Kah-kit |
唔知/難講 Don't know/hard to say |
|||||
樣本人數 Total Sample |
頻數 Frequency | 百份比 Percentage | 頻數 Frequency | 百份比 Percentage | 頻數 Frequency | 百份比 Percentage | |
有被訪者 All respondents | 520 | 340 | 69.1% | 102 | 20.7% | 50 | 10.2% |
政治取向 Political inclination | |||||||
民主派 pro-democracy camp | 124 | 55 | 46.2% | 54 | 45.4% | 10 | 8.4% |
親中派 pro-China camp | 23 | 21 | 95.5% | 1 | 4.5% | ||
中間派 Moderate camp | 184 | 126 | 70.4% | 33 | 18.4% | 20 | 11.2% |
冇政治傾向/唔屬於任何派別 No preference | 170 | 127 | 79.4% | 14 | 8.8% | 19 | 11.9% |
唔知/難講 Don't know/hard to say | 17 | 11 | 100.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
性別 Gender | |||||||
男 Male | 248 | 158 | 67.2% | 55 | 23.4% | 22 | 9.4% |
女 Female | 272 | 182 | 70.8% | 47 | 18.3% | 28 | 10.9% |
年齡 Age | |||||||
18-29 | 90 | 59 | 67.8% | 23 | 26.4% | 5 | 5.7% |
30-49 | 204 | 136 | 70.1% | 42 | 21.6% | 16 | 8.2% |
50或以上 50 or above | 222 | 144 | 68.9% | 36 | 17.2% | 29 | 13.9% |
教育程度 Education attainment | |||||||
小學或以下 Primary or below | 92 | 60 | 73.2% | 12 | 14.6% | 10 | 12.2% |
中學 Secondary | 272 | 186 | 71.5% | 50 | 19.2% | 24 | 9.2% |
大專或以上 Tertiary or above | 151 | 92 | 63.0% | 40 | 27.4% | 14 | 9.6% |
職業 Occupation | |||||||
行政及專業人員 Executives and professionals | 118 | 70 | 63.1% | 28 | 25.2% | 13 | 11.7% |
文職及服務人員 Clerical and service workers | 101 | 73 | 73.7% | 18 | 18.2% | 8 | 8.1% |
勞動工人 Production workers | 58 | 35 | 63.6% | 15 | 27.3% | 5 | 9.1% |
學生 Students | 34 | 19 | 59.4% | 12 | 37.5% | 1 | 3.1% |
全職主婦 Housewives | 91 | 62 | 71.3% | 15 | 17.2% | 10 | 11.5% |
其他 Others | 108 | 77 | 77.0% | 11 | 11.0% | 12 | 12.0% |
家庭所屬階級 Family class | |||||||
自稱中層或中上層 Claimed to be middle or upper-middle levels | 208 | 137 | 69.9% | 42 | 21.4% | 17 | 8.7% |
自稱基層或中下層 Claimed to be lower-middle or grassroot levels | 286 | 191 | 69.5% | 55 | 20.0% | 29 | 10.5% |
深入分析 Further Analysis: 人口變項分析圖表 Charts of demographic analyses
深入分析
Further Analysis: 論壇時段分析數表 Tables of time segment analyses
[Q1] 你認為邊位候選人係論壇上表現比較好?
[Q1] At the forum, which candidate do you think has performed better?
每5分鐘 Per 5 minutes
時段 Time |
20:05 - 20:10 | 20:10 - 20:15 | 20:15 - 20:20 | 20:20 - 20:25 | 20:25 - 20:30 | 20:30 - 20:35 | 20:35 - 20:40 | 20:40 - 20:45 | 20:45 - 20:50 | 20:50 - 20:55 | 20:55 - 21:00 | 21:00 - 21:05 | 21:05 - 21:10 | 21:10 - 21:15 | 21:15 - 21:20 | 21:20 - 21:25 | 21:25 - 21:30 | 21:30 - 21:35 | 21:35 - 21:40 | 21:40 - 21:45 | 21:45 - 21:50 | 21:50 - 21:55 | 21:55 - 22:00 | 22:00 - 22:05 | 22:05 - 22:10 | 22:10 - 22:15 |
曾蔭權 Donald Tsang Yam-kuen |
0.0% | 31.6% | 23.5% | 38.9% | 29.4% | 55.0% | 38.5% | 30.8% | 50.0% | 52.0% | 50.0% | 28.6% | 15.4% | 42.1% | 42.9% | 34.8% | 50.0% | 16.0% | 36.8% | 33.3% | 50.0% | 26.3% | 47.4% | 38.1% | 71.4% | 50.0% |
梁家傑 Alan Leong Kah-kit |
50.0% | 21.1% | 47.1% | 33.3% | 41.2% | 30.0% | 46.2% | 50.0% | 33.3% | 28.0% | 35.0% | 57.1% | 53.8% | 52.6% | 35.7% | 47.8% | 11.1% | 56.0% | 31.6% | 45.8% | 45.0% | 36.8% | 42.1% | 33.3% | 19.0% | 50.0% |
每10分鐘 Per 10 minutes
時段 Time |
20:00 - 20:10 | 20:10 - 20:20 | 20:20 - 20:30 | 20:30 - 20:40 | 20:40 - 20:50 | 20:50 - 21:00 | 21:00 - 21:10 | 21:10 - 21:20 | 21:20 - 21:30 | 21:30 - 21:40 | 21:40 - 21:50 | 21:50 - 22:00 | 22:00 - 22:10 | 22:10 - 22:20 |
曾蔭權 Donald Tsang Yam-kuen |
0.0% | 27.8% | 34.3% | 45.7% | 40.0% | 51.1% | 24.4% | 42.6% | 41.5% | 25.0% | 40.9% | 36.8% | 54.8% | 50.0% |
梁家傑 Alan Leong Kah-kit |
50.0% | 33.3% | 37.1% | 39.1% | 42.0% | 31.1% | 56.1% | 42.6% | 31.7% | 45.5% | 45.5% | 39.5% | 26.2% | 50.0% |
每15分鐘 Per 15 minutes
時段 Time |
20:00 - 20:15 | 20:15 - 20:30 | 20:30 - 20:45 | 20:45 - 21:00 | 21:00 - 21:15 | 21:15 - 21:30 | 21:30 - 21:45 | 21:45 - 22:00 | 21:00 - 21:15 |
曾蔭權 Donald Tsang Yam-kuen |
28.6% | 30.8% | 40.3% | 50.7% | 30.0% | 41.4% | 27.9% | 41.4% | 54.5% |
梁家傑 Alan Leong Kah-kit |
23.8% | 40.4% | 43.1% | 31.9% | 55.0% | 32.9% | 45.6% | 41.4% | 27.3% |
深入分析 Further Analysis: 論壇時段分析圖表 Charts of time segment analyses
![](index.13.gif)
![](index.16.gif)
![](index.17.gif)
| 調查方法 Survey method | 樣本資料 Contact information | 人口變項 Respondents' demographics | 調查問卷 Full questionnaires | |
| 頻數表 Frequency Tables: Q1– 候選人表現 Candidates』 performance ;
Q2 – 候選人支持率 Support for candidates | | Q3– 論壇前候選支持率 Support for candidates before forum ; Q4 – 被訪者政治取向 Political alignment of respondents | |
| 深入分析 Further Analysis: 人口變項分析數表 Tables of demographic analyses | 人口變項分析圖表 Charts of demographic analyses | |
| 深入分析 Further Analysis: 論壇時段分析數表 Tables of time segment analyses ; 論壇時段分析圖表 Charts of time segment analyses | |