2007年第一次特首選舉論壇即時民意調查返回

由香港大學民意研究計劃在2007年3月1日獨立進行的「第一次特首選舉論壇即時民意調查」，部份經費由香港有線電視、南華早報、信報及文匯報聯合贊助，特此鳴謝。根據贊助協議，調查數據首先由贊助機構使用，及後再在本網站公開，作為民研計劃的一項社會服務。各界人士在轉載或引用有關數據時，懇請註明出處。

Conducted independently by the Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong on March 1, 2007, the 「First Survey on Chief Executive Election Forum Instant Poll」 was partly co-sponsored by Cable TV, South China Morning Post, Hong Kong Economic Journal and Wen Wai Po. POP hereby acknowledges their support with thanks. According to our sponsorship agreement, the findings of the instant poll would be used by the sponsors first, and then published at this website some times later as part of POP』s public service. Users of these findings are requested to cite the source appropriately when re-printing or quoting these figures.

| 頻數表 Frequency Tables: Q1– 候選人表現 Candidates』 performance ; Q2 – 候選人支持率 Support for candidates |
| Q3– 論壇前候選支持率 Support for candidates before forum ; Q4 – 被訪者政治取向 Political alignment of respondents |

| 深入分析 Further Analysis: 人口變項分析數表 Tables of demographic analyses | 人口變項分析圖表 Charts of demographic analyses |

| 深入分析 Further Analysis: 論壇時段分析數表 Tables of time segment analyses ; 論壇時段分析圖表 Charts of time segment analyses |

| 分析評論 Commentary |

調查日期 Date of survey : 1/3/2007

[Q1] 你認為邊位候選人係論壇上表現比較好?
[Q1] At the forum, which candidate do you think has performed better?

	頻數 Frequency	百份比 Percentage
曾蔭權 Donald Tsang	236	46.5
梁家傑 Alan Leong	172	33.9
唔知/難講 Don't know/hard to say	100	19.7
合計 Total	508	100.0
缺數 Missing	2

[Q2] 如果聽日俾你投票選特首，你會選邊個？
[Q2] If you were to vote for the Chief Executive tomorrow, which one would you choose?

	頻數 Frequency	百份比 Percentage
曾蔭權 Donald Tsang	334	67.9
梁家傑 Alan Leong	107	21.7
空白票／棄權／兩個都唔選 Blank vote／abstention／neither of them	51	10.4
合計 Total	492	100.0
缺數 Missing	18

[Q3] 係呢個論壇之前，你傾向選邊個呢?
[Q3] Before this forum, which one did you prefer?

	頻數 Frequency	百份比 Percentage
曾蔭權 Donald Tsang	333	68.2
梁家傑 Alan Leong	82	16.8
空白票／棄權／兩個都唔選 Blank vote／abstention／neither of them	73	15.0
合計 Total	488	100.0
缺數 Missing	22

[Q4] 你認為自己既政治取向，係傾向認同邊一個派別呢?
[Q4] Which of the following political camps are you more inclined to align with?

	頻數 Frequency	百份比 Percentage
民主派 Pro-democracy	100	19.7
親中派 Pro-China	20	3.9
中間派 Pro-China	204	40.2
冇政治傾向/唔屬於任何派別 No preference	171	33.7
唔知/難講 Don't know/hard to say	12	2.4
合計 Total	507	100.0
缺數 Missing	3

深入分析 Further Analysis: 人口變項分析數表 Tables of demographic analyses

[Q1] 你認為邊位候選人係論壇上表現比較好?
[Q1] At the forum, which candidate do you think has performed better?

		曾蔭權 Donald Tsang Yam-kuen		梁家傑 Alan Leong Kah-kit		唔知/難講 Don't know/hard to say
	樣本人數 Total Sample	頻數 Frequency	百份比 Percentage	頻數 Frequency	百份比 Percentage	頻數 Frequency	百份比 Percentage
有被訪者 All respondents	510	236	46.5%	172	33.9%	100	19.7%
政治取向 Political inclination
民主派 pro-democracy camp	100	25	25.0%	59	59.0%	16	16.0%
親中派 pro-China camp	20	13	65.0%	3	15.0%	4	20.0%
中間派 Moderate camp	204	98	48.3%	68	33.5%	37	18.2%
其他 Others	0	0	0.0%	0	0.0%	0	0.0%
冇政治傾向/唔屬於任何派別 No preference	171	97	57.1%	38	22.4%	35	20.6%
唔知/難講 Don't know/hard to say	12	3	25.0%	2	16.7%	7	58.3%
性別 Gender
男 Male	223	102	45.7%	82	36.8%	39	17.5%
女 Female	287	134	47.0%	90	31.6%	61	21.4%
年齡 Age
18-29	89	45	50.6%	28	31.5%	16	18.0%
30-49	178	78	43.8%	69	38.8%	31	17.4%
50或以上 50 or above	232	109	47.4%	73	31.7%	48	20.9%
教育程度 Education attainment
小學或以下 Primary or below	108	58	54.2%	25	23.4%	24	22.4%
中學 Secondary	279	127	45.7%	101	36.3%	50	18.0%
大專或以上 Tertiary or above	116	51	44.0%	42	36.2%	23	19.8%
職業 Occupation
行政及專業人員 Executives and professionals	96	41	43.2%	42	44.2%	12	12.6%
文職及服務人員 Clerical and service workers	106	40	37.7%	40	37.7%	26	24.5%
勞動工人 Production workers	52	25	48.1%	20	38.5%	7	13.5%
學生 Students	41	22	53.7%	11	26.8%	8	19.5%
全職主婦 Housewives	105	50	47.6%	32	30.5%	23	21.9%
其他 Others	102	57	56.4%	23	22.8%	21	20.8%
家庭所屬階級 Family class
自稱中層或中上層 Claimed to be middle or upper-middle levels	171	80	47.1%	59	34.7%	31	18.2%
自稱基層或中下層 Claimed to be lower-middle or grassroot levels	317	148	46.8%	106	33.5%	62	19.6%

[Q2] 如果聽日俾你投票選特首，你會選邊個？
[Q2] If you were to vote for the Chief Executive tomorrow, which one would you choose?

		曾蔭權 Donald Tsang Yam-kuen		梁家傑 Alan Leong Kah-kit		唔知/難講 Don't know/hard to say
	樣本人數 Total Sample	頻數 Frequency	百份比 Percentage	頻數 Frequency	百份比 Percentage	頻數 Frequency	百份比 Percentage
有被訪者 All respondents	510	334	67.9%	107	21.7%	51	10.4%
Q1. 你認為邊位候選人係論壇上表現比較好? At the forum, which candidate do you think has performed better?
曾蔭權 Donald Tsang	236	224	95.3%	5	2.1%	6	2.6%
梁家傑 Alan Leong	172	44	27.0%	95	58.3%	24	14.7%
唔知/難講 Don't know/hard to say	100	64	69.6%	7	7.6%	21	22.8%
Q3. 係呢個論壇之前，你傾向選邊個呢? Before this forum, which one did you prefer?
曾蔭權 Donald Tsang	333	287	87.8%	25	7.6%	15	4.6%
梁家傑 Alan Leong	82	12	15.0%	61	76.3%	7	8.8%
空白票／棄權／兩個都唔選 Blank vote/abstention/neither of them	73	29	40.8%	16	22.5%	26	36.6%
政治取向 Political inclination
民主派 pro-democracy camp	100	46	48.4%	40	42.1%	9	9.5%
親中派 pro-China camp	20	18	94.7%	1	5.3%	0	0.0%
中間派 Moderate camp	204	142	71.4%	36	18.1%	21	10.6%
其他 Others	0	0	0.0%	0	0.0%	0	0.0%
冇政治傾向/唔屬於任何派別 No preference	171	119	72.1%	26	15.8%	20	12.1%
唔知/難講 Don't know/hard to say	12	7	63.6%	3	27.3%	1	9.1%
性別 Gender
男 Male	223	146	67.3%	54	24.9%	17	7.8%
女 Female	287	188	68.4%	53	19.3%	34	12.4%
年齡 Age
18-29	89	65	74.7%	18	20.7%	4	4.6%
30-49	178	110	63.2%	46	26.4%	18	10.3%
50或以上 50 or above	232	152	68.8%	41	18.6%	28	12.7%
教育程度 Education attainment
小學或以下 Primary or below	108	75	74.3%	13	12.9%	13	12.9%
中學 Secondary	279	180	66.2%	65	23.9%	27	9.9%
大專或以上 Tertiary or above	116	77	68.1%	26	23.0%	10	8.8%
職業 Occupation
行政及專業人員 Executives and professionals	96	57	61.3%	27	29.0%	9	9.7%
文職及服務人員 Clerical and service workers	106	70	67.3%	22	21.2%	12	11.5%
勞動工人 Production workers	52	29	60.4%	14	29.2%	5	10.4%
學生 Students	41	32	78.0%	8	19.5%	1	2.4%
全職主婦 Housewives	105	73	73.0%	17	17.0%	10	10.0%
其他 Others	102	70	70.7%	16	16.2%	13	13.1%
家庭所屬階級 Family class
自稱中層或中上層 Claimed to be middle or upper-middle levels	171	117	70.9%	32	19.4%	16	9.7%
自稱基層或中下層 Claimed to be lower-middle or grassroot levels	317	205	67.0%	70	22.9%	31	10.1%

[Q3] 係呢個論壇之前，你傾向選邊個呢?
[Q3] Before this forum, which one did you prefer?

		曾蔭權 Donald Tsang Yam-kuen		梁家傑 Alan Leong Kah-kit		唔知/難講 Don't know/hard to say
	樣本人數 Total Sample	頻數 Frequency	百份比 Percentage	頻數 Frequency	百份比 Percentage	頻數 Frequency	百份比 Percentage
有被訪者 All respondents	510	333	68.2%	82	16.8%	73	15.0%
政治取向 Political inclination
民主派 pro-democracy camp	100	47	50.5%	33	35.5%	13	14.0%
親中派 pro-China camp	20	17	89.5%	0	0.0%	2	10.5%
中間派 Moderate camp	204	138	69.7%	26	13.1%	34	17.2%
其他 Others	0	0	0.0%	0	0.0%	0	0.0%
冇政治傾向/唔屬於任何派別 No preference	171	124	75.6%	19	11.6%	21	12.8%
唔知/難講 Don't know/hard to say	12	6	50.0%	3	25.0%	3	25.0%
性別 Gender
男 Male	223	145	67.8%	41	19.2%	28	13.1%
女 Female	287	188	68.6%	41	15.0%	45	16.4%
年齡 Age
18-29	89	67	77.9%	11	12.8%	8	9.3%
30-49	178	105	61.8%	35	20.6%	30	17.6%
50或以上 50 or above	232	154	69.4%	34	15.3%	34	15.3%
教育程度 Education attainment
小學或以下 Primary or below	108	76	74.5%	13	12.7%	13	12.7%
中學 Secondary	279	180	67.4%	50	18.7%	37	13.9%
大專或以上 Tertiary or above	116	76	67.3%	16	14.2%	21	18.6%
職業 Occupation
行政及專業人員 Executives and professionals	96	57	62.0%	21	22.8%	14	15.2%
文職及服務人員 Clerical and service workers	106	72	70.6%	15	14.7%	15	14.7%
勞動工人 Production workers	52	30	61.2%	9	18.4%	10	20.4%
學生 Students	41	31	77.5%	7	17.5%	2	5.0%
全職主婦 Housewives	105	73	70.9%	13	12.6%	17	16.5%
其他 Others	102	68	70.1%	15	15.5%	14	14.4%
家庭所屬階級 Family class
自稱中層或中上層 Claimed to be middle or upper-middle levels	171	121	73.3%	27	16.4%	17	10.3%
自稱基層或中下層 Claimed to be lower-middle or grassroot levels	317	202	66.4%	50	16.4%	52	17.1%

深入分析 Further Analysis: 人口變項分析圖表 Charts of demographic analyses

　

深入分析 Further Analysis: 論壇時段分析數表 Tables of time segment analyses

[Q1] 你認為邊位候選人係論壇上表現比較好?
[Q1] At the forum, which candidate do you think has performed better?

每5分鐘 Per 5 minutes

時段 Time	19:05 - 19:10	19:10 - 19:15	19:15 - 19:20	19:20 - 19:25	19:25 - 19:30	19:30 - 19:35	19:35 - 19:40	19:40 - 19:45	19:45 - 19:50	19:50 - 19:55	19:55 - 20:00	20:00 - 20:05	20:05 - 20:10	20:10 - 20:15	20:15 - 20:20	20:20 - 20:25	20:25 - 20:30	20:30 - 20:35	20:35 - 20:40	20:40 - 20:45	20:45 - 20:50	20:50 - 20:55	20:55 - 21:00	21:00 - 21:05	21:05 - 21:10	21:10 - 21:15	21:15 - 21:20	21:20 - 21:25	21:25 - 21:30
曾蔭權 Donald Tsang Yam-kuen	0.0%	36.4%	42.9%	60.0%	56.3%	52.9%	38.9%	46.2%	31.6%	17.6%	47.4%	66.7%	20.0%	44.4%	40.9%	63.6%	40.0%	57.9%	50.0%	66.7%	52.6%	53.8%	31.3%	44.4%	53.8%	50.0%	53.8%	36.4%	53.3%
梁家傑 Alan Leong Kah-kit	20.0%	0.0%	14.3%	6.7%	18.8%	29.4%	38.9%	38.5%	36.8%	47.1%	31.6%	33.3%	60.0%	27.8%	45.5%	31.8%	40.0%	36.8%	40.9%	20.0%	36.8%	38.5%	31.3%	33.3%	38.5%	45.5%	46.2%	36.4%	20.0%

每10分鐘 Per 10 minutes

時段 Time	19:00 - 19:10	19:10 - 19:20	19:20 - 19:30	19:30 - 19:40	19:40 - 19:50	19:50 - 20:00	20:00 - 20:10	20:10 - 20:20	20:20 - 20:30	20:30 - 20:40	20:40 - 20:50	20:50 - 21:00	21:00 - 21:10	21:10 - 21:20	21:20 - 21:30
曾蔭權 Donald Tsang Yam-kuen	0.0%	40.0%	58.1%	45.7%	37.5%	33.3%	45.5%	42.5%	52.4%	53.7%	58.8%	45.2%	47.5%	51.4%	43.2%
梁家傑 Alan Leong Kah-kit	20.0%	8.0%	12.9%	34.3%	37.5%	38.9%	45.5%	37.5%	35.7%	39.0%	29.4%	35.7%	35.0%	45.7%	29.7%

每15分鐘 Per 15 minutes

時段 Time	19:00 - 19:15	19:15 - 19:30	19:30 - 19:45	19:45 - 20:00	20:00 - 20:15	20:15 - 20:30	20:30 - 20:45	20:45 - 21:00	21:00 - 21:15	21:15 - 21:30
曾蔭權 Donald Tsang Yam-kuen	25.0%	53.3%	45.8%	32.7%	45.1%	48.4%	57.1%	47.5%	48.4%	46.0%
梁家傑 Alan Leong Kah-kit	6.3%	13.3%	35.4%	38.2%	39.2%	39.1%	33.9%	36.1%	38.7%	34.0%

深入分析 Further Analysis: 論壇時段分析圖表 Charts of time segment analyses

分析評論 Commentary

以下分析和評論由民研計劃主任鍾庭耀提供，由贊助機構優先使用，及後再在本網站公開：

是次調查的對象為曾經收聽或收看特首選舉論壇的市民，因此未必完全代表全港巿民。不過，由於該等巿民屬於比較關心特首選舉的人士，他們的意見可能更具參考價值。

調查顯示，雖然較多留意選舉論壇的市民認為曾蔭權在論壇上的表現較佳，但曾蔭權並未取得壓倒性優勢。認為曾蔭權表現較佳的有四成六，認為梁家傑表現較佳的有三成四，另外兩成表示不能分辨勝負。

不過，假設被訪者可以投票選特首，曾蔭權則獲得六成八壓倒性優勢。換言之，被訪者在選擇支持那個候選人的時候，似乎並非單單考慮候選人在舉論壇上的表現。

此外，調查明確顯示，接近六成自稱民主派人士的被訪者認為梁家傑在論壇上的表現比曾蔭權好，但在自稱親中派人士中，曾蔭權就錄得六成半的好評。在自稱沒有政治傾向和自稱中間派人士中，曾蔭權同樣取得優勢，好評率分別有五成七和四成八。被訪者的政治取向明顯影響了他們對兩個候選人表現的判斷。

至於其他人口變項分析組別方面，曾蔭權在小學教育程度組別、學生組別和年輕組別，都能獲得超過五成的好評。其餘所有組別都沒有給予任何候選人超過五成的正面評價。

有趣的是，認為曾蔭權表現較佳的被訪者中差不多全數支持曾蔭權出任特首，但認為梁家傑表現較佳的被訪者中就有二成七表示支持對手曾蔭權出任特首，再次印證候選人在舉論壇上的表現並非被訪者選擇候選人的唯一考慮。

The following observations and comments on the findings of the instant poll are provided by Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, to sponsors for first publication, subsequently uploaded onto this website:

This instant poll was targeted at Hong Kong people who have watched or listened to the Chief Executive Election forum. As such, the findings of this poll may not be able to represent the views of the entire population. Nevertheless, because these respondents cared more about the election, their views may be more relevant.

According to this survey, although more people considered Donald Tsang』s performance at the forum to be better, it is not overwhelming. A total of 46% said Tsang had performed better, 34% said Alan Leong was better, 20% could not make up their mind.

However, where support rate is concerned, Tsang is way ahead of Leong with 68% support, if respondents were given the vote. In other words, when people choose between the two candidates, there are reasons other than candidates』 performance at the forum.

Moreover, this survey shows that among the respondents, almost 60% of the self-proclaimed pro-democratic camp supporters considered Alan Leong to have performed better in the forum. However, among the self-proclaimed pro-China respondents, Donald Tsang was praised by 65% of them. Among those who claimed themselves to be politically unaligned or moderate, Tsang also has a considerable edge, with 57% and 48% praise respectively. This shows that respondents』 political preference has affected their judgment of the candidates』 performance at the forum.

As for other demographic groupings, Tsang received over 50% praise among the primary educated, students and youths. Across all other groups, no candidate managed to secure over 50% praise.

One interesting finding is that practically all those who said Donald Tsang had performed better supported him to become CE, but 27% of those who said Alan Leong had performed better supported his rival Donald Tsang. This again shows that candidates』 performance at the forum was not the only factor affecting respondents』 choice.

| 深入分析 Further Analysis: 人口變項分析數表 Tables of demographic analyses | 人口變項分析圖表 Charts of demographic analyses |

| 深入分析 Further Analysis: 論壇時段分析數表 Tables of time segment analyses ; 論壇時段分析圖表 Charts of time segment analyses |

| 分析評論 Commentary |