Summary of Findings返回
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Quantitative Analysis on Opinion Questions
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Please refer to Appendix II for cross-reference of the tables cited.
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Respondents were first asked to assess, one by one, the importance to safeguard the interest of 6 different parties in the course of constitutional reform. Results revealed that more than 80% of the respondents thought it was important to safeguard the interest of the middle class, followed by that of the grassroots, the professionals, the accountants and then the business sector. Whilst around half of the respondents thought it was important to safeguard the interest of the Central Government (Table 1a-1f).
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In accordance with the existing election system, after the 2004 Legislative Council Election, there will be 30 seats returned by functional constituencies and 30 by geographical constituencies. Notwithstanding this system, respondents were asked how the functional constituencies' seats and geographical constituencies' seats should be distributed for the 2008 LegCo Election. Ideally speaking, more than 40% of the respondents thought that the functional constituencies' seats should be abolished. Meanwhile, around one-fifth of them opted for the status quo, i.e. 30 seats should be allocated to the functional constituencies, whilst slightly more than 10% of them thought the number should be reduced to 20. Taking the average, the mean obtained from 282 responses was 18 seats (Table 2a). Regarding the geographical constituencies, almost two-fifths of the respondents thought that all 60 seats should be returned by geographical direct elections, and 15% would go with the existing 30 seats. Apart from these two popular answers, around one-third of the respondents wanted to have it increased to a number between 31-59, as contrast to less than 10% who opted for a number less than 30. Of the 282 respondents who could give a definite number to this question, the mean was 50 (Table 2b).
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Regarding the total number of seats to be returned in the 2008 LegCo Election, nearly three-quarters of the respondents thought that the number of seats should remain at 60 (Table 2c).
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Basic Law Article 68 stipulates that all members of LegCo should ultimately be returned by universal suffrage "in the light of the actual situation in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and in accordance with the principle of gradual and orderly progress." Despite the NPC's veto of universal suffrage in 2007/08 earlier in time, one-third of the respondents still believed this target could be achieved by 2007/08 and nearly one-fifth believed this could be achieved by 2012. On the other hand, about one-sixth of the respondents failed to have any idea and about 10% thought this could never be achieved in Hong Kong (Table 3).
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One proposal on constitutional reform is to implement direct elections of all LegCo members by universal suffrage in 3 stages over a span of 20 years. The final stage would be to implement direct election of the full legislature from the seventh LegCo election onwards, i.e. from the year 2024 . Results showed that nearly two-thirds of the respondents opposed this relatively milder proposal while about one-quarter supported it and over 10% were neutral (Table 4).
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Basic Law Article 45 stipulates that the Chief Executive should ultimately be returned by universal suffrage upon nomination by a broadly representative nominating committee in accordance with democratic procedures, "in the light of the actual situation in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and in accordance with the principle of gradual and orderly progress." By the same token, around one-third of the respondents believed that this target could be achieved by 2007/08. Less than one-fifth believed that this could be achieved by 2012. On the other hand, about 15% failed to give a concrete answer while over 10% predicted this would never happen (Table 5).
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One proposal on the election of the Chief Executive is to turn the 800-member Electoral Committee into a nomination committee which nominates a list of candidates who are broadly acceptable by the Central Government. The Chief Executive would then be elected from the candidates by universal suffrage. This election method could be retained until the full legislature became directly elected . This proposal was relatively more well-received when compared with the previous one on LegCo Election, with about half of the respondents showing support while 40% opposed, and about 10% had no opinion (Table 6).
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Qualitative Analysis on Open-ended Submission
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In spite of the difficulties in collating open-ended responses, the 105 opinions expressed by the respondents under the question "Your other opinions on constitutional reform (if any)" of the questionnaire survey were collated into four groups. For the whole set of open-ended opinions, please refer to Appendix III.
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A strong demand for universal suffrage - Quite a number of respondents expressed demand for universal suffrage in Hong Kong, while some of them even wanted these direct elections to be held as soon as possible. Although the National People's Congress had vetoed universal suffrage in 2007/08 through the interpretation of the Basic Law, a significant number of respondents still insisted on this demand. Many others stressed the importance of universal suffrage, but without suggesting a timeline.
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Specific timetable for constitutional reforms wanted - Many respondents wanted to see a timetable in constitutional reforms so that democratic development could be materialized step-by-step whereas universal suffrage could be achieved in a foreseeable future. Some respondents voiced out their worries over radical constitutional changes and wished to slow it down.
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Weak confidence on functional constituencies - A significant number of respondents believed that the system of functional constituencies failed to perform its duties properly, and should be abolished or significantly changed.
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Divided opinions towards the Central Government - While some respondents were dissatisfied and pessimistic about the Central Government's recent intervention on Hong Kong's constitutional reforms, some others claimed that it would be important to reach a consensus with the Central Government so as to make the final outcomes more acceptable to both parties.
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Conclusion
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Due to a variety of reasons not tested by the survey, the response rate of this survey was far from satisfactory. Such reasons may include:
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Although our results may not be representative, we would still like to highlight that more than 80% of our respondents thought it was important to safeguard the interest of the middle class in the course of constitutional reform, followed by that of the grassroots, the professionals, the accountants, the business sector, and that of the Central Government. All percentages were over 50%.
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Regarding the allocation of seats between the functional and geographical constituencies of LegCo by 2008, more than 40% of the respondents thought that the functional constituencies' seats should be abolished. About the same number of them believed that all 60 seats should be returned by geographical direct elections.
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Despite the NPC's veto of universal suffrage in 2007/08 earlier in time, around one-third of the respondents still believed that all LegCo members and Chief Executive could be returned by universal suffrage by 2007/08.
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Two specific proposals concerning the election of LegCo members and Chief Executive were discussed in this survey. Results revealed that nearly two-thirds of the respondents opposed the 20-year-span and 3-stage proposal on the election of LegCo members, while the proposal on the election of Chief Executive was relatively more well-received, with almost half of the respondents showing support.
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Based on the 105 open-ended submissions under the question "Your other opinions on constitutional reform (if any)", respondents' opinions could be summarized roughly into four main themes:
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