The Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,017 Hong Kong people between 12 and 14 March by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that Hong Kong people's opposition to the independence of Taiwan and Tibet remains high and rising. In terms of absolute figures, people's opposition rate against Tibet independence is about 10 percentage points lower than that against Taiwan independence, while, those in support of Tibet and Taiwan independence remains low and stable at around 10%. According to Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, according to opinion figures accumulated for 15 years, Hong Kong people seem to know less about Tibet than Taiwan. The recent surge in attention on Tibet may, from a positive point of view, help people understand more about various issues surrounding Tibet. The sampling error of all percentages released today is between +/-2 to +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the response rate of the survey is 66%.

Points to note:

* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,017 successful interviews, not 1,017 x 65.8% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* The maximum sampling error of all percentages is below +/-2 to 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
* When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places in order to match the precision level of the figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Since June 1993 and continuously for 15 years, POP has been regularly surveying Hong Kong people's opinion on the independence of Taiwan and Tibet, as part of our survey series on national issues. All surveys on Tibet independence conducted in or before June 1999 were published in our newsletter POP Express. After our POP Site was established in June 2000, we gradually move our survey items on-line one by one. Because the issue of Tibet has become a focus of public attention recently, POP has decided to collate all previous findings on Tibet and Taiwan independence together, and present them in parallel for public reference. As for previous findings already published in our POP Express, they are available in the "Archive" section of our POP Site.

POP today releases via the POP Site the latest figures of people's opinions towards Taiwan and Tibet issues. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2007. Figures of Taiwan issues were already released on March 20, 2008. Herewith the contact information for the survey:

Date of survey	Sample base	Overall response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
12-14/3/08	1,017	65.8%	+/-3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent figures of people's opinions towards Tibet and Taiwan issues are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	7-12/3/07	8-12/6/07	4-7/9/07	11-14/12/07	12-14/3/08		Latest change
Sample base	1,033	1,016	1,025	1,011	1,017		--
Overall response rate	58.8%	69.5%	66.0%	65.1%	65.8%		--
Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)*	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%		--
Finding for each question/ Sampling error*	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Sampling error	--
Tibet independence: Opposition rate	66%	64%	69%	69%	71%	+/-3%	+2%
Tibet independence: Support rate	14%	13%	14%	10%	11%	+/-2%	+1%
Taiwan independence: Opposition rate**	80%	79%	83%	82%	80%	+/-3%	-2%
Taiwan independence: Support rate**	13%	11%	11%	10%	12%	+/-2%	+2%

*"95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Figures have been released in the press release of March 20.

Results obtained in mid-March revealed that 71% of Hong Kong people interviewed opposed the independence of Tibet whereas only 11% showed support. Meanwhile, 80% objected Taiwan becoming independent whilst only 12% held a positive view.

The following chart shows people's opinion towards Tibet and Taiwan issues since 1993, using half-yearly averages:

On the general trend of opinion development in the past 15 years among Hong Kong people regarding Taiwan and Tibet issues, Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "According to our opinion figures collected in the past 15 years, Hong Kong people's opposition to the independence of Taiwan and Tibet has remained high and rising. In terms of absolute figures, people's opposition rate against Tibet independence is about 10 percentage points lower than that against Taiwan independence. However, those in support of Tibet and Taiwan independence has remained low and stable, at around 10%. This shows that people know less about Tibet than Taiwan. The recent surge in attention on Tibet may, from a positive point of view, help people understand more about various issues surrounding Tibet."

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, we will release the latest figures of people's appraisal of local news media on April 15, 2008, Tuesday, between 1pm and 2pm.

Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at . We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

Since 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP". In the near future, we will keep on stepping up our effort in promoting general civic education to enhance our POP Site accordingly.

Tibet and Taiwan issues

Be it under British colonial rule or under "one country, two systems", Hong Kong has always been part of China. It thus seems natural for HKUPOP to survey people's opinion on Chinese national and ethnical issues, if we can squeeze some resources. This is exactly what we did, when we embarked on conducting the regular surveys on Tibet and Taiwan issues. We have explained the development of surveys on Taiwan issues in our press releases of September 19, 2006, March 15, June 22, September 18, 2007 as well as March 20, 2008. Today, other than posting the development of surveys on Taiwan issues again, we would also explain the development of our Tibet surveys, in order to give readers a more comprehensive picture.

(1) Tibet issue

• Two years after HKUPOP was established, in June 1993, we began our regular surveys on Hong Kong people's views on the independence of Tibet. From the beginning to April 2000, the survey was conducted once every two months. Since June 2000 onwards, the frequency of this survey was changed to once every three months to cope with the social development.


• The question wordings used in the survey are, "Do you agree to Tibet becoming independent?".


• Regarding the sample size, from the beginning to April 2000, the sample size of Tibet issues survey was set at slightly over 500. From June 2000 onwards, it was increased to at least 1,000.

(2) Taiwan issues

• As for the Taiwan issues surveys, we began our regular surveys in June 1993. Questions include: Taiwan independence, Taiwan joining the United Nations, Hong Kong people's trust of the Taiwan government, and people's confidence in cross-strait reunification. By 1996, shortly before Hong Kong's handover, whether "one country, two systems" should be equally applicable to Taiwan or not became a talking point for peoples across the Strait. HKUPOP therefore added it to the pool of tracking questions. Starting from April 2000, the survey was conducted once every two months but in June 2000, its frequency was changed to once every three months to cope with the social conditions.


• In terms of wording, the 4 questions used in the questionnaire are "Are you confident in the ultimate reunification of Taiwan and Mainland China?", "Do you agree to Taiwan rejoining the United Nations?", "Do you agree to Taiwan becoming independent?" and "Do you think "One country, two systems"is applicable to Taiwan?"


• Regarding sample size, from the beginning to April 2000, the sample size of Taiwan issues survey was set at slightly over 500. From June 2000 onwards, it was increased to at least 1,000.

Findings of our surveys on Taiwan and Tibet issues are released online via POP Site.